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Storm chances increase Thursday into Friday; Minnesota set for beautiful weekend
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2 days ago
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00:00
Dry and relatively comfortable yet today with sunshine, but the chance of thunder increases
00:04
already tomorrow and especially for Friday, but all out of here in time for a pleasant looking weekend.
00:19
So temperatures today back in the mid-80s for southern and western Minnesota, upper 70s to
00:24
northeast and those dew points still relatively comfortable for July, low 60s at times here in
00:30
southern Minnesota, 50s to the north, but those muggier dew points are going to be rolling back in
00:34
here tonight into tomorrow and where those dew points are increasing already, we've had clusters
00:39
of clouds, showers and storms just to our west in the Dakotas and far western Minnesota and that will
00:44
be kind of the trend here moving eastward tonight into tomorrow. So by the early morning hours tomorrow
00:50
getting pretty soupy here in western Minnesota, those dew points near 70 and that will be the trend
00:54
through the day tomorrow, mid to upper 60s, maybe 70 degree dew points in the Twin Cities
00:58
by Thursday evening, but that's all going to move out behind this system Saturday. Dryer air moves in,
01:04
that'll stabilize things just in time for Saturday and Sunday. So we're tracking that upper level low
01:09
here, it's moving across northern California, not made a lot of progress. Yesterday at this time we
01:13
showed you it was just off the coast of California, but it is going to start to move quicker, getting
01:18
carried into the upper level winds here, so that will be, that feature will be moving in tomorrow night
01:22
and that's going to produce those more widespread showers and thunderstorms. These short waves or
01:27
upper level lows, remember just cool air lofts, they just generate instability by allowing that warm
01:31
humid air to rise and produce showers and storms, which we may already see early tomorrow and late
01:36
tomorrow. Could see some isolated storms. Most of the activity in western Minnesota tonight and tomorrow,
01:41
but Thursday we can't rule out a couple of them here in the eastern part of the state too. Mid 80s for highs again,
01:46
upper 80s close to 90 in the western part of the state. The better widespread chance of showers and
01:52
storms comes tomorrow night into Friday. Looks like we could see some activity early and then again late
01:57
in the day Friday. Models still kind of all over the place as far as timing and coverage of these
02:02
showers and storms though, so there's sort of a medium confidence forecast here, but it does look
02:08
as though we're going to see another inch to an inch and a half of rainfall and really at any point Friday
02:12
a shower or thunderstorm is possible, but it is looking like the better chance will come later
02:16
in the day. So Thursday night and later in the day Friday into Friday night and a pretty low severe
02:21
risk. Slight risk to the west and the Dakotas today and tomorrow, but starting to move into
02:26
northwestern Minnesota Thursday. Friday a marginal risk here across the state, so low risk of severe
02:32
storms. That's the good news. Looks like mainly garden variety showers and storms, but there could be one
02:36
or two storms that produce some high wind gusts or large hail. We'll have to watch some of the
02:41
instability indicators. Friday will have plenty of juice in the atmosphere. It's just a matter of
02:45
organizing those storms into severe storms. This is a look at the European model, kind of has those
02:50
storms midday and then in the evening and overnight hours. So a little different timing than some of the
02:55
other models, just to give you an idea that it's really anyone's game here Friday. It's just going to
03:00
be unstable basically, but behind it Saturday dropping humidity, clearing skies, 80 degrees or so.
03:08
Pretty nice for us timing it out here in the weekend with dry sunny weather. A little warmer again
03:14
Sunday, especially Monday, but sandwiching the weekend here with shower and thunderstorm chances
03:20
Friday. And then again, looks like by Tuesday of next week.
03:24
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