Potentially severe Friday storm could bring record heat, plowable snow to Minnesota

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00:00Well, we are back into warm temperatures today through Friday, well above normal.

00:04In fact, more record-breaking high temperatures.

00:06And we could be dealing with our first severe weather of the season late Friday,

00:09followed by snow for many on Saturday.

00:22So temperatures yesterday were cooler, but still mid-40s,

00:26about 3-4 degrees above average actually here across central and southern Minnesota.

00:30And we are back in the warm-up here in earnest.

00:34Temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s for the Twin Cities today.

00:36Probably some low 60s again in southwestern Minnesota.

00:39Even warmer readings on the way tomorrow.

00:41We're going to be well into the 60s across all of southern Minnesota.

00:43In fact, some 70-degree readings again in western Minnesota.

00:47And we are on track for our first 70-degree reading of the season

00:50probably in the Twin Cities here on Friday.

00:53We're going to be as low to middle 70s possible across the southern third of the state.

00:57And that will bring us into record territory on Friday.

01:00The record high is 73.

01:02We may tie that or break it or come close to it.

01:04That was set in 2012.

01:06Which some of you might remember 2012, the warmest March on record.

01:08That was the year we hit 80 degrees on St. Patrick's Day.

01:11The earliest ever recorded 80-degree reading.

01:14Our next storm system is going to take advantage of some of that warmth and extra energy too.

01:18Right now it's sitting in the Pacific still.

01:20This deep trough just west of California is going to bring them some much needed moisture.

01:24But also as it moves across the Rockies, it's going to develop into a cutoff upper level low.

01:30It will be swinging up towards Minnesota.

01:32This cold air aloft creates instability.

01:34It will plow up a lot of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico.

01:36And the Weather Service is making some parallels to our earliest tornado outbreak.

01:42This storm system has many features that are very similar to what we had

01:47in our March tornado outbreak of 2017.

01:50So not saying we're going to get tornadoes, but there are some interesting parallels there to that system.

01:55And the Storm Prediction Center does have the Day 3 outlook.

01:58Slight risk right up to the southeastern suburbs of the Twin Cities.

02:01Including Rochester, Elbert, Lee.

02:03Marginal risk for the Twin Cities.

02:05So that is pretty interesting here for the middle of March.

02:09This is the lightning density forecast for 8 p.m. Friday evening from the European model.

02:14Could have some thunderstorms rolling through.

02:16So again, those dew points will really be surging northward.

02:19Fifties dew points, not impressive for the middle of summer.

02:22But by March standards, that is some pretty humid air for March 14th in Minnesota.

02:28And that's going to lead to instability.

02:30We're going to have convective available potential energy.

02:32Or just juice available for storms all the way from the Gulf of Mexico into Minnesota.

02:36And enough shear and organization potentially in the storms to create some tornadoes.

02:41Now the best significant tornado parameter is well south of Minnesota.

02:44But we do see a little bit of that nudging into the southeastern part of the state.

02:47So rain Friday evening.

02:49Thunderstorms, rain overnight.

02:51And then as colder air wraps in, we're going to see that rain turn to snow in western Minnesota first.

02:56And by the time we're cold enough late Saturday for snow, most of the moisture might be done.

03:01So snowfall not looking particularly menacing here in the Twin Cities.

03:06But western Minnesota we could see that as temperatures drop through the day.

03:09We're going to drop from a high in the 50s before the sunrise on Saturday to freezing by Saturday evening.

03:16So potent cold front with that.

03:18A lot of wind too.

03:19Sustained wind speeds of 15 to 40 miles an hour.

03:21Wind gusts in the Red River Valley could be over 50 miles an hour on Saturday.

03:25So a lot of wind.

03:27And wind-driven snow in western and northwestern Minnesota.

03:31The model is still favoring western Minnesota for any significant snow.

03:35Doesn't mean we won't get a coating or maybe an inch or two potentially in the Twin Cities.

03:39But best chance of anything significant is looking like it's going to be in the western part of the state.

03:43And colder behind that.

03:45Upper 30s Sunday.

03:4620s to the north.

03:48But another short-lived cold snap here by Monday.

03:51We're back in the 50s, maybe even low 60s in southern Minnesota.

03:54And temperatures overall next week, well not 70 degrees, look to be generally at or above normal.

04:01So 56 today.

04:03Already back into warmer readings.

04:05Those are about 15 degrees above normal.

04:0864 tomorrow.

04:09And then Friday, our first 70 of the season.

04:1272, maybe warmer.

04:14Again, the record is 73 set in 2012.

04:17But the other bigger story is the fact that we could see some thunderstorms Friday evening.

04:21Potentially even a couple severe ones.

04:23Falling temperatures Saturday.

04:25We'll kind of be dry-slotted in the morning.

04:27I think a break.

04:28But then we'll see more rain and snow showers later in the day.

04:30Saturday, falling temperatures.

04:32Colder, brighter Sunday.

04:34And then warmer again for early next week.

04:36We're also watching a midweek system next week that could bring rain and snow to the region.

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