Tracking when and where storms and heavy rain will arrive in Minnesota

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00:00Well, we enter an active pattern here over the next few days.

00:02We've already seen some showers.

00:04More thunderstorms develop later today, but the big event,

00:06potential heavy rainfall, comes Thursday night,

00:08followed by a temporarily dry weekend.

00:21So we have this stalled front just across southern Minnesota,

00:25extending into southern South Dakota.

00:27And south of the front, temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees today.

00:31North of it will be mostly 70s, though.

00:33The southernmost counties of the state will see temperatures probably pop into the low 80s.

00:37We already have this belt of clouds, broken belt of clouds, and some showers here.

00:42North of the front, but you can see the streamlines on the map,

00:44winds out of the north.

00:45North of the front, winds out of the south.

00:47South of the front, that's an area of convergence,

00:49and that's the area that's going to be the focus here.

00:51Over the next 36 hours or so, we've got some pretty humid air,

00:54dew points in the 60s and even 70s.

00:56South of that front, not as humid north of that front.

01:00So normally, we wouldn't see much north of the front,

01:02except we are going to see a couple things come together

01:04that will bring some of that moisture our direction.

01:06But we have a slight risk of excessive rainfall.

01:10That means 15% chance, at least,

01:13that somewhere within 25 miles of that yellow blob

01:16could see flash flood issues here.

01:18So we're talking about a lot of rain.

01:20Upper level disturbance will come through tomorrow night.

01:22That's one trigger mechanism, along with a low-level jet stream.

01:25We talked about this yesterday.

01:26Winds 4,000 feet above the ground accelerate at night,

01:30up to 50 miles an hour here.

01:31And that's going to transport that warmth and moisture north,

01:35ahead of the surface front,

01:37creating a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

01:39So later this afternoon and evening,

01:41we'll see another batch of showers.

01:42And then most of the showers and storms overnight tonight

01:44into tomorrow morning will be in far southern Minnesota,

01:47closer to the frontal boundary.

01:48Now, if that boundary moves, so too do the thunderstorms.

01:51But later in the afternoon and tomorrow,

01:53into tomorrow night, Friday morning,

01:55we're going to see these waves of showers and storms develop

01:58along that low-level jet,

01:59near that upper-level disturbance coming through.

02:01And we're still looking at a large area

02:03of one to three inches of rain.

02:06That'll be the average in this whole area

02:08of central and southern Minnesota.

02:10There are going to be amounts that are going to be higher,

02:11locally higher amounts.

02:12We use that terminology because there will be isolated pockets.

02:15It's impossible to tell exactly where that'll happen.

02:18But we look at the models to see hints

02:20of what those amounts could be.

02:22And some of the models are pushing

02:24five, six, seven inches of rain in spots.

02:27But again, don't pay attention to where.

02:29The models aren't good at that,

02:30just that that's a possibility.

02:32There is a very small risk of severe weather,

02:34just a marginal risk,

02:36level one out of five with tomorrow's storms.

02:37But mostly we're talking about a heavy rainfall event

02:40with these showers and thunderstorms.

02:41And it's going to be cool Friday,

02:43just 60s for temperatures here

02:45with those rain-cooled readings.

02:47And again, south of the front, much warmer.

02:48Next week does get warmer.

02:50We're talking about low 80s for highs,

02:51but it's going to be kind of a Miami pattern

02:54where we see sunshine during the middle of the day,

02:57clouds build,

02:57and a chance of thunder almost each day.

02:59We're going to have several little minor

03:01upper-level disturbances moving through the flow aloft.

03:03And that's enough to touch off

03:05some of these isolated to spotty storms.

03:07So it's not going to be the dreary kind of weather

03:10we've been having,

03:11but more of that pop-up thunderstorm activity here.

03:14This is the European model's lightning forecast,

03:16and you can just kind of see everything

03:17lighting up here across the central U.S.

03:20almost each day next week.

03:21Trying to time it out,

03:22really difficult several days in advance

03:24with those fast-moving little disturbances,

03:26but I would count on at least a chance

03:28almost each day next week.

03:30But there will probably be some dry days in there.

03:3274 today.

03:34We'll see that second round of moisture move in

03:35later this afternoon and evening.

03:37And then the main event comes late tomorrow

03:39into tomorrow night,

03:41into Friday morning.

03:4268 only for the high.

03:44Should be dry for the most part this weekend.

03:4671, kind of cool though.

03:47Still some lingering clouds.

03:48Saturday, a little warmer, brighter Sunday.

03:51And then the next chance of showers

03:52and thunderstorms is Monday.

03:54Right now, Tuesday could be dry,

03:56but keeping that isolated thunder chance in there.

03:59But kind of every other day,

04:00at least next week,

04:01we will have a chance of storms,

04:02if not a chance of a storm somewhere

04:05in southern Minnesota almost each day next week.

04:07So, yeah, we are not worried about drought

04:10anytime soon around here.

04:26We'll see you.

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