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00:00Well, we enter an active pattern here over the next few days.
00:02We've already seen some showers.
00:04More thunderstorms develop later today, but the big event,
00:06potential heavy rainfall, comes Thursday night,
00:08followed by a temporarily dry weekend.
00:21So we have this stalled front just across southern Minnesota,
00:25extending into southern South Dakota.
00:27And south of the front, temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees today.
00:31North of it will be mostly 70s, though.
00:33The southernmost counties of the state will see temperatures probably pop into the low 80s.
00:37We already have this belt of clouds, broken belt of clouds, and some showers here.
00:42North of the front, but you can see the streamlines on the map,
00:44winds out of the north.
00:45North of the front, winds out of the south.
00:47South of the front, that's an area of convergence,
00:49and that's the area that's going to be the focus here.
00:51Over the next 36 hours or so, we've got some pretty humid air,
00:54dew points in the 60s and even 70s.
00:56South of that front, not as humid north of that front.
01:00So normally, we wouldn't see much north of the front,
01:02except we are going to see a couple things come together
01:04that will bring some of that moisture our direction.
01:06But we have a slight risk of excessive rainfall.
01:10That means 15% chance, at least,
01:13that somewhere within 25 miles of that yellow blob
01:16could see flash flood issues here.
01:18So we're talking about a lot of rain.
01:20Upper level disturbance will come through tomorrow night.
01:22That's one trigger mechanism, along with a low-level jet stream.
01:25We talked about this yesterday.
01:26Winds 4,000 feet above the ground accelerate at night,
01:30up to 50 miles an hour here.
01:31And that's going to transport that warmth and moisture north,
01:35ahead of the surface front,
01:37creating a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
01:39So later this afternoon and evening,
01:41we'll see another batch of showers.
01:42And then most of the showers and storms overnight tonight
01:44into tomorrow morning will be in far southern Minnesota,
01:47closer to the frontal boundary.
01:48Now, if that boundary moves, so too do the thunderstorms.
01:51But later in the afternoon and tomorrow,
01:53into tomorrow night, Friday morning,
01:55we're going to see these waves of showers and storms develop
01:58along that low-level jet,
01:59near that upper-level disturbance coming through.
02:01And we're still looking at a large area
02:03of one to three inches of rain.
02:06That'll be the average in this whole area
02:08of central and southern Minnesota.
02:10There are going to be amounts that are going to be higher,
02:11locally higher amounts.
02:12We use that terminology because there will be isolated pockets.
02:15It's impossible to tell exactly where that'll happen.
02:18But we look at the models to see hints
02:20of what those amounts could be.
02:22And some of the models are pushing
02:24five, six, seven inches of rain in spots.
02:27But again, don't pay attention to where.
02:29The models aren't good at that,
02:30just that that's a possibility.
02:32There is a very small risk of severe weather,
02:34just a marginal risk,
02:36level one out of five with tomorrow's storms.
02:37But mostly we're talking about a heavy rainfall event
02:40with these showers and thunderstorms.
02:41And it's going to be cool Friday,
02:43just 60s for temperatures here
02:45with those rain-cooled readings.
02:47And again, south of the front, much warmer.
02:48Next week does get warmer.
02:50We're talking about low 80s for highs,
02:51but it's going to be kind of a Miami pattern
02:54where we see sunshine during the middle of the day,
02:57clouds build,
02:57and a chance of thunder almost each day.
02:59We're going to have several little minor
03:01upper-level disturbances moving through the flow aloft.
03:03And that's enough to touch off
03:05some of these isolated to spotty storms.
03:07So it's not going to be the dreary kind of weather
03:10we've been having,
03:11but more of that pop-up thunderstorm activity here.
03:14This is the European model's lightning forecast,
03:16and you can just kind of see everything
03:17lighting up here across the central U.S.
03:20almost each day next week.
03:21Trying to time it out,
03:22really difficult several days in advance
03:24with those fast-moving little disturbances,
03:26but I would count on at least a chance
03:28almost each day next week.
03:30But there will probably be some dry days in there.
03:3274 today.
03:34We'll see that second round of moisture move in
03:35later this afternoon and evening.
03:37And then the main event comes late tomorrow
03:39into tomorrow night,
03:41into Friday morning.
03:4268 only for the high.
03:44Should be dry for the most part this weekend.
03:4671, kind of cool though.
03:47Still some lingering clouds.
03:48Saturday, a little warmer, brighter Sunday.
03:51And then the next chance of showers
03:52and thunderstorms is Monday.
03:54Right now, Tuesday could be dry,
03:56but keeping that isolated thunder chance in there.
03:59But kind of every other day,
04:00at least next week,
04:01we will have a chance of storms,
04:02if not a chance of a storm somewhere
04:05in southern Minnesota almost each day next week.
04:07So, yeah, we are not worried about drought
04:10anytime soon around here.
04:26We'll see you.