Where severe storms and flash flooding are most likely Wednesday afternoon

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00:00Well, we have an unsettled and active day today with scattered showers and storms across central

00:04and southern Minnesota, followed by a brief break from the most humid air and more heat for the

00:08weekend. So we've been talking about this frontal boundary for several days, actually even into

00:24last week, and it is draped across Minnesota, producing ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms

00:29and, of course, on the warm side of this front, very humid air. It's not a whole lot less humid on the

00:35other side of the front, though, either, if you're looking for some relief. But we've had these strong

00:39low-level jet winds, winds about 4,000 feet above the ground, transporting heat and humidity, and that's

00:44continued to produce these ongoing scattered showers and storms here into the midday here across

00:49southern Minnesota. We do have a heat advisory for the Twin Cities and southeastern Minnesota because

00:53any window of sunshine, temperatures will quickly go up well into the 80s and with those 70s dew

00:59points, the heat indices could be as high as 95 to 100 degrees at times for us. But it's all

01:05conditional, depending upon where you don't see ongoing storms keeping things cooler. So it comes

01:11with an asterisk. A lot of humidity, though. Dew points well into the 70s here across central and

01:16southern Minnesota, even mid to upper 70s dew points. On the other side of the front, 60s dew points.

01:21That is the air moving in for tomorrow and Friday, so it'll be less humid, but still pretty muggy around here.

01:26And we do have a severe risk today, slight risk. The updated risk here late this morning

01:30does include the Twin Cities still, but they trimmed back the northern side because they just have too

01:34much ongoing activity in central Minnesota to probably recover. Now, that is the other question

01:40in asterisk, the severe threat, because of the ongoing activity. There will be plenty of energy with the

01:45humidity in anywhere that does see sun and enough dynamics to potentially organize some storms here

01:51across south central and southeastern Minnesota. But again, it is conditional on how much sun we see

01:56and the timing of that sun. The computer models are notoriously bad with this type of scenario today.

02:02So that's why the forecast is a big old question mark. But that frontal boundary will be moving south

02:06and it will continue to be the focus of storm development. So this is the RFS model, just one of

02:12several models, and they've all been doing not well today. But it does have storms blowing up, kind of

02:16refiring, diminishing, refiring along that boundary through the day today and into tonight. So anywhere

02:23in the southern half of the state, we could see some of these strong to severe storms. But the threat is

02:28probably going to be heavy rainfall because of the ongoing, developing, slow-moving nature of these

02:33storms. So this is 5 p.m. The HRR versus the RFS. You can see some slight differences in where those

02:39storms develop and where they continue. But generally, the same idea. Storms just kind of

02:43flaring up continuously along that frontal boundary as it moves south and southeast. So where could the

02:48strongest storms be? Three different model scenarios. And generally, they do paint it here

02:53across southern Minnesota, Twin Cities, kind of on the edge of each of these areas. This is when we look

02:59at the updraft tracks in the model, basically tracking the strongest cells in three different

03:03computer models. And there's the potential for some severe wind gusts. Here's one model just

03:08showing some of those possibilities here somewhere in southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin.

03:13In addition, I think the bigger threat could be heavy rainfall. Now, this is an average of the models,

03:18one to two inches of rainfall. But when we look at the individual models, we can see hints at just how

03:23high some of those rainfall totals could get. And we do see some three, four inch rainfall amounts. So

03:27flash flooding a concern, training of thunderstorms where they develop over the same areas over and over

03:32again because this front is so slow moving. So heavy rainfall, flash flooding could become an issue

03:37as we head into the late afternoon, evening, into the overnight. So be aware of that. Stay close to

03:42your phone and alerts. There could be severe weather, flooding, and some heat and humidity in between

03:48storms. So upper 80s today, still a chance we could hit 90, but we're gonna need a few hours of sun. And I

03:52think we could do that in the early to mid-afternoon hours. But that will just help to reignite storms and

03:58increase that severe threat late this afternoon, evening. But again, it is conditional

04:02on getting at least a few hours of sunshine here combined with those high dew points.

04:06Frontal boundaries in place. We've got some dynamics in place, but we need to get enough

04:10sunshine here between the storms. Tomorrow, those dew points do drop a little bit. Slightly cooler the

04:15next couple days, mid to upper 80s versus upper 80s to near 90. But that heat and humidity is coming

04:21back for the weekend. Highs near 90, both Saturday and Sunday, with some pretty high dew points and some

04:26storms maybe to end the weekend. And signs that we could see some cooler, drier air finally next week again.

04:32.

04:37.

04:40.

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