00:00Well, it's a hot and humid one today, and that heat and humidity is sticking around through tomorrow.
00:03And it's also playing into storm development.
00:06Different parts of the state at different times will break down who has the best chance of storms, when and how severe.
00:21So heat advisory for much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.
00:25Heat indices this afternoon well into the 90s to even near 100 degrees at times.
00:29In southern Minnesota, we've got some pretty soupy dew points out there in the low to mid-70s.
00:34Combined with afternoon temperatures warming up in the upper 80s to low 90s.
00:38Probably right around 90 for much of the southern half of the state.
00:41Cooler with the clouds and some ongoing showers and thunderstorms scattered about in northern Minnesota.
00:45They're close to that cool front that's the focus for storms.
00:48But the heat indices today, yeah, close to 100, upper 90s to near 100 degrees.
00:53Tomorrow's going to be more of the same.
00:54Now, there's an asterisk with tomorrow.
00:56There's a reason they haven't extended the heat advisory into tomorrow yet because we could have some morning showers or storms that might keep the temperatures down.
01:02But if we get midday sun, it's going to be very similar with that heat index close to the upper 90s to near 100 degrees again for the Twin Cities and points south and east.
01:12So we do have this frontal boundary draped across the Dakotas up towards about Winnipeg.
01:16And you can kind of see the showers, clouds clustered around that.
01:20And then we have several upper level disturbances to the west kind of moving up and over that front.
01:25So several different mechanisms, forcing mechanisms, we call this, to allow for air to rise upward and create some showers and storms.
01:33So all these little Xs, those are little what we call short waves or little upper level disturbances.
01:36Those pockets of cool air generating instability along with that surface front where you have air moving together as that cooler air is advancing south.
01:45So we're going to see more storms probably redevelop just to the east and southeast of that frontal boundary this evening into tonight.
01:52So clusters of storms on and off for the northern half of the state.
01:55And then some of that could wander into southern Minnesota late tonight into tomorrow.
01:58But I think the southern half of the state, other than an isolated storm, will largely stay dry.
02:03Now, one of the latest models of the RFS model has produced a couple of these spotty storms in southern Minnesota.
02:08But difficult to see that going.
02:10It's humid enough where a storm could develop kind of anywhere at any time.
02:13But we are really generally capped here across southern Minnesota into Nebraska.
02:18This means the air 9,000 feet above the ground is pretty warm.
02:21So any air that tries to rise can't really get through that layer.
02:24Now, tomorrow, as that surface front sags slowly but surely south and southeast, those mid-level temperatures also cool off too.
02:32So we won't have the capping mechanism tomorrow.
02:35So I think tomorrow is our best chance.
02:36Tomorrow into tomorrow night, a more widespread storm.
02:38So this is tomorrow evening.
02:39And then into the overnight, waves of showers and storms with some lingering showers in southeastern Minnesota early on Thursday.
02:46Now, again, this is the RRFS model, the high-resolution rapid refresh model, showing a similar scenario.
02:52But, again, with that early morning activity, potentially, that the RRFS model doesn't have.
02:57But then, again, late-day storms developing ahead of that front here in southern Minnesota.
03:01But both models are a little different in placement.
03:03So anywhere in central and southern Minnesota tomorrow, possible.
03:06But Storm Prediction Center also eyeing primarily northern Minnesota today.
03:10That's really that slight risk central into north-central Minnesota.
03:14And then tomorrow, the Twin Cities is in that slight risk, that level 2 out of 5.
03:17This is all along that front as it slowly is moving south and southeast.
03:21So I think tomorrow and tomorrow night, best chances for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota for storms.
03:26But don't be totally surprised if one or two storms pops up today or tonight just because of the humidity.
03:31And we have all these outflows from dying and redeveloping storms to the north.
03:35Plenty of energy tomorrow, too.
03:37And we're going to have to watch potentially for some tornadic activity tomorrow.
03:40A significant tornado parameter is a little bit higher tomorrow.
03:44Forecast soundings, basically forecast three-dimensional view of the atmosphere, is favorable for some possible tornadoes.
03:50Now, the strongest storms, when we look at those updraft tracks, tonight, northern Minnesota.
03:55But then tomorrow, as that front moves south, we'll see those more intense storms potentially right over southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.
04:01So tomorrow into tomorrow night, we'll have to watch for that potential severe activity, possible high wind gusts.
04:07And then today into tonight, again, the better chance of that activity is further to the north.
04:12So that's why you kind of see two separate areas of the most intense storms.
04:15In addition, of course, some very heavy rain with all this humidity.
04:19Flood watch for much of northeastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this evening into early Thursday because those are the areas that could see several rounds of showers and storms.
04:27Whereas southern Minnesota, we're mainly looking at tomorrow, tomorrow night.
04:30But they'll get today, tonight, and tomorrow.
04:33So kind of a broad one to three inches of rainfall here for northern, east-central Minnesota into western Wisconsin.
04:39And again, we've got to look at some of the individual models to get hints at what some of those totals could look like.
04:43In some of the models, the high-resolution models, spitting out more than five, six inches of rain.
04:48Don't pay attention to where.
04:50They're not good at that.
04:51But the idea is that there will be some spots that could see as much as five, six-plus inches of rain.
04:56So that's why we've got that flood watch concern.
04:58But near 90 for the Twin Cities today, tomorrow, humid.
05:02So that heat index, 95 to maybe as high as 100 degrees.
05:05Again, our better chance of storms comes tomorrow.
05:08And then we decrease the cloud cover.
05:10We're going to see a little drop in humidity.
05:12Thursday, Friday, dew points more like the mid-60s versus the low to mid-70s.
05:16So still muggy, but not oppressively humid.
05:19And then the weekend's looking hot again.
05:21The humidity's back, too, near 90 degrees.
05:23Looking like that chance of storms is most likely late Sunday into potentially Monday.
05:28But we're in that pattern where the timing of these things could certainly change.
