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00:00We have another unsettled day today with some spotty showers popping up and moving through.
00:03Tomorrow will be brighter and mostly drier, and then it's going to be hot heading into the weekend with storms next week.
00:19So rainfall amounts, as expected, the last 24 hours have been pretty modest here,
00:23about a tenth to a few tenths of an inch across portions of central and southern Minnesota,
00:27and then northern Minnesota, largely not measurable rainfall.
00:31There were some showers up there, but generally pretty light and brief.
00:34So the upper-level low we're responsible for, it's that cool air aloft generating instability,
00:38is spinning across southwestern Minnesota, so that's why everything is moving southeast to northwest,
00:43everything rotating counterclockwise around that low.
00:46So once again, we'll be watching the southeast for our showers,
00:50and probably some steadier showers at times here midday into the afternoon before things dissipate more towards sunset.
00:56So like yesterday, you'll see peaks of sun, some brief showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder.
01:01And tomorrow we can't rule out a couple of those still being around.
01:04Still some lingering instability, though I think they will be pretty few and far between Thursday,
01:09and we'll have more sunshine and warmer temperatures too.
01:12But as far as additional rainfall today into tonight, fairly light.
01:15Again, a tenth of an inch or so, maybe a couple tenths of an inch.
01:18That's some of those brighter green areas.
01:20But that upper low will slowly spin out of here the next 24 hours and become quite a deep trough in the east,
01:26creating some stormy, cooler weather.
01:28But we're going to see this upper-level ridge move in here.
01:30That means heat for the weekend before that next trough digs into the west.
01:35That's going to create storm potential for next week we'll talk about here in a second.
01:38But upper 60s for highs in southern Minnesota today with the clouds, 70s again to the north.
01:43But then tomorrow, most of us get in on high temperatures in the 70s.
01:47In fact, I think the northwest corner of the state could reach the low 80s Thursday afternoon.
01:52Friday, those 80s become widespread really across the state, even upper 80s in northwestern Minnesota.
01:58And then similar temperatures, mid to upper 80s, Saturday, Sunday.
02:01Monday, good shot at 90 for much of the state.
02:04This would be our second one in the Twin Cities.
02:06But of course, they've seen several more already in western Minnesota.
02:09And as I mentioned, that next trough, this is the setup by Tuesday.
02:13Big upper-level trough in the west.
02:15That's cool air loft again that's going to help to push up the flow here in the central part of the continent,
02:19bringing in some of those muggier dew points and allowing disturbances to kind of move around that trough.
02:24So that means good chance of storms by the time we head into Tuesday and Wednesday.
02:28Dew points still comfortable Sunday in the 50s.
02:30But by Tuesday, sticky dew points in the 60s to even near 70 to our south.
02:35So that moisture plume is the essential ingredient to seeing better chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms generating instability.
02:42This is that convective, available potential energy.
02:44One of the key components we look at for energy available for storms means potentially some severe weather, too,
02:50with that moisture and all the dynamics potentially coming into play.
02:53This is the lightning forecast from the European model Tuesday and then again late Wednesday.
02:57So we'll be watching for storms here from the Gulf of Mexico through Minnesota
03:01and across the plains potentially by Tuesday, Wednesday next week.
03:04And by then, we're going to need the rain because we're in for some hot, dry weather.
03:07So today is the last chance of really any widespread rainfall for southern Minnesota until next week.
03:1469 today.
03:16Again, some peaks of sun, but also those hit and miss showers, potentially a rumble of thunder.
03:20Can't rule out one or two showers still tomorrow, though we will see more sunshine, but still a little lingering instability.
03:26But 76, the temperatures really jump up with increased sunshine and especially Friday, Saturday, Sunday into the 80s for us.
03:34Shot at 90 on Monday, but then it all comes crashing down with storms potentially Tuesday as the pattern shifts yet again.