Rain develops late Thursday; severe storms could hit Minnesota Monday

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00:00Well, we have a mostly dry day today and pleasant with just some scattered clouds and a isolated

00:04sprinkle or two, but more rain is on the way for tomorrow and tomorrow night, especially for

00:08southern Minnesota, and a potentially stormy setup for early next week with a shot at our first 80.

00:22So we're watching a developing system to the southwest. This will be a Colorado low coming

00:27up towards Minnesota, already developing showers and a couple of thunderstorms tomorrow, though

00:31mostly rain. In between, we've got some sunshine for southern Minnesota through some scattered

00:35clouds, a few more clouds to the north, though, and cooler. Cool front moving across northern

00:39Minnesota today, 40s to near 50 only for highs there, but near 70 again for the Twin Cities

00:44in southern Minnesota. By early tomorrow morning, showers already in southern Minnesota, and then

00:49those will make their way north and east here by midday. So Twin Cities by maybe the late morning,

00:54but especially in the afternoon. And this is really going to be confined mostly to the southern

00:58half of the state. Northern Minnesota will see some showers, but the bulk of the rainfall is

01:03really going to be for the southern half of Minnesota, where we'll pick up anywhere from

01:06a quarter to as much as an inch plus of rainfall. There could be some locally higher amounts in

01:11southeastern Minnesota, but I think Twin Cities, we can bet on half inch to three quarters of an inch

01:15of some rainfall here. Well, Duluth, maybe just a tenth or two tenths of an inch in northern

01:19Minnesota, just probably trace amounts of rainfall. Rain-cool temperatures tomorrow too, mostly in the

01:2550s. The warmer spots will be northern Minnesota ahead of the morning and midday rain, actually.

01:31And you can count on clouds tomorrow too, though there will be peaks of sun in northern Minnesota,

01:35but showing you the forecast cloud cover because once again, we're going to clear out pretty early

01:38and quickly Friday. Clouds a few showers early, but by the late afternoon, sunshine is back. So

01:43Friday afternoon into Saturday looking pleasant for the first part of the weekend. Highs by Saturday

01:49into the 60s, pretty much statewide with sunshine. So a nice Saturday, but the next round of unsettled

01:54weather already develops Sunday. Now this is going to be more of a summery kind of thunderstorm

01:57situation where we'll see some spotty thunder, sunshine in between, but late in the day, Sunday,

02:02Monday, and Tuesday, thunderstorms will be possible, especially Monday. We're watching for the potential

02:07for some strong to severe storms. This will be a prolonged unsettled period for those three days,

02:12Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. But in between two, Monday, we're going to be close to 80, maybe our first

02:16one of the season in the Twin Cities. Of course, southern Minnesota has hit 80 already. Places like

02:21New Ulm hit 84 earlier this week. But dew points are going to be on the increase. This is the big

02:26deciding factor between thunderstorms and severe weather versus not. By Monday, dew points are in

02:31the 60s. So Sunday, still pretty dry air. So mostly just showers. But with the instability driven by

02:37those higher dew points from the Gulf of Mexico, we're going to see that instability really increase

02:41that CAPE, convective available potential energy from Texas all the way up through Minnesota.

02:46That, along with winds aloft, will help to potentially organize storms. So this is the

02:50lightning forecast from the European model. Maybe a couple rounds of storms on Monday.

02:56Still pretty early to break down details yet. But Storm Prediction Center continues to watch

03:00southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, down to Oklahoma for a slight risk for severe weather already

03:06for Monday, Monday night. Not very often that we're already looking at a day six or seven days out.

03:10So that gives you an idea that it could be potentially stormy here Monday of next week.

03:15That's the price we pay for warmer weather in the spring and summer.

03:1970, though, today. No risk of thunderstorms. Just a couple of stray sprinkles with some of those

03:25clouds. But otherwise, pretty nice day. Tomorrow, cooler, scattered showers, especially midday and

03:31afternoon for the Twin Cities. And then that moves out Friday. Again, some sunshine by the afternoon and

03:36evening. A pleasant Friday evening. 62 for the high. And then Saturday looks gorgeous. Sunday,

03:41warmer, but a few more clouds around. And again, a couple of showers around. But Monday, Tuesday,

03:46especially looking stormy around here with those warmer temperatures. And yeah, last few days of April

03:53are looking warmer and potentially stormy.

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