Two rounds of severe storms could strike Minnesota on Thursday

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00:00Well, we have a big change in the pattern coming that has been advertised, and as it moves in,

00:05we're talking about potentially two rounds of severe storms on Thursday,

00:08followed by much cooler and potentially wetter weather.

00:21So one last hot day today. Temperatures in the upper 80s here across eastern Minnesota,

00:25low 90s again in the western part of the state. So one last July-like day for now before we return to

00:33below normal temperatures, actually. We have a developing surface low here in the south

00:36that we're watching all of this starting to come together now as an upper level trough in the west.

00:41We've been talking about that cool air aloft is pushing into the west. That's finally pushing

00:46this big bubble of heat here in the central part of the country east and allowing for us to get

00:50into more of a southerly flow, which will bring in those higher dew points, which we've already been

00:54seeing. Dew points in the 50s to near 60 today. Noticeably more humidity, and that is going to

00:59help alleviate the fire threat as well as providing moisture for potential showers and storms. So

01:04by tomorrow, ahead of that front, dew points in the 60s, followed by much drier, cooler air. We've

01:09already seen a big change in the dew points. This is a 24-hour change in the dew point temperature.

01:14A lot more moisture across the state compared to yesterday at this time. So improving conditions

01:19there. And we are going to be watching this surface front. This is going to be the focus

01:22for potential storm development tomorrow. It's going to be coming in from the southwest,

01:26a little bit of an unusual direction. We typically look to them moving west to east or northwest to

01:31southeast. But tomorrow, you're going to see the cooler air coming in from the southwest and some

01:36gusty winds with that. And that front is going to have quite the contrast. 70s and 80s ahead of it.

01:41This is 4 p.m. tomorrow, but 50s in southwestern Minnesota. So this is that cool air wrapping into

01:46the system and pushing through and focusing the potential development for some storms.

01:51So tonight into early Thursday, the risk is really southwestern Minnesota. This is going

01:55to be from storms that develop today in South Dakota. And then whatever holds together will

02:00track into southwestern Minnesota before fizzling out. Now, if they hold together and move into the

02:04Twin Cities midday, that could hamper our chances of severe weather. So there are those storms this

02:09evening. And then moving into southwestern Minnesota in the early morning hours tomorrow.

02:13This is 5 a.m. Pipestone, Laverne. And then again, if it holds together, this might kind of cap the

02:20energy here in the central part of the state. So that's why we're really looking more into Wisconsin

02:24for the risk of severe storms from an enhanced risk. But Storm Prediction Center has kind of

02:28wrapped a slight risk more broadly around that in case we see storms pop up right on top of us

02:34or just to our west, southwest. So it looks like around 2, 3 p.m. we'll see storms fire

02:39kind of right on top of us or central Minnesota. And then those will move northeast ahead of the

02:43cold front. It's going to be a very narrow window of the parameters lining up for severe storms and

02:49then wrap around showers into Friday, it looks like, for kind of a cool, wet, windy day on Friday.

02:56So here's that significant tornado parameter. Watch how it's just kind of a narrow window. This is 1 p.m.

03:01Thursday, just on top of or ahead of the cold front. So if storms fire a little later than that

03:08time frame or after the front passes us, then we're out of the woods for severe weather in the

03:12Twin Cities. But if it develops on us or just to the southwest, we could see some strong storms.

03:16The high-resolution rapid refresh model has that second round kind of on top of us in areas north

03:22and east. We'll also get quite a bit of rainfall out of this. So two rounds of storms could add up to

03:28over an inch of rain here from southwestern through central Minnesota. And hopefully we can kind of

03:32push this into those wildfires in St. Louis County, northeastern Minnesota. And then gusty winds

03:37tomorrow night, not from storms, but from the front itself. In the wake of that cold front,

03:43cool air blowing in could prove some high wind gusts. Now that model is particularly high,

03:48but easily some 50-mile-an-hour wind gusts, I think, tomorrow night. And then Saturday, much cooler,

03:52low 60s, 50s, and 40s to the north, below normal temperatures for a chance. Saturday,

03:59by 50s below the north of western Minnesota, considering Halleck was 100 or close to it much

04:04of this week. And then we'll drop to probably near freezing early Sunday morning. This is your

04:10Saturday night lows, frosty for the northern part of the state. Staying in the 40s though here in

04:15southern Minnesota. And this might set us up for a more active pattern as we head into Tuesday.

04:19More rain on the way, potentially, and below normal temperatures into much of next week.

04:25We'll see how long that lasts. We've got pretty dry here, so it's going to take a lot to make up

04:29some of these May deficits we have. Warm though today, upper 80s, 90s to the west. Storms tomorrow

04:35again in two waves, early and then potentially late afternoon, evening, followed by lingering

04:40showers and wind here for Friday. And then temperatures next week remain below normal. Dry Sunday,

04:46Monday, but we're looking at potentially more rain Tuesday.

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