00:00Well, we have heavy rainfall today and tomorrow, a severe weather threat for southern Minnesota later today,
00:04and then more thunderstorms possible this weekend as things start to heat up again.
00:18So we have a risk of excessive rainfall here across the southern part of the state from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center.
00:24This whole area in yellow, anywhere in there, we do have the potential for some flash flooding concerns.
00:29So we'll be watching where the rain falls through the day today and where those heaviest bands set up and kind of stay stationary.
00:35That'll determine where we see potential flash flooding concerns.
00:38It's hard to pinpoint those very small-scale areas of heavy rainfall, but we're going to see a widespread soaking for much of the state.
00:46Already that rain filling in here, that same frontal boundary that came through on Monday has lifted back north.
00:52So we saw a reprieve. It was in Iowa yesterday, but dew points surging north again.
00:57In fact, we can really measure that by looking at the 24-hour change in dew point.
01:01You can see quite a substantial increase here across southwestern Minnesota into South Dakota
01:06as that front marched even just another 50 miles farther north.
01:11Low-level jet stream here, winds 4,000 feet above the ground going up to 50 miles an hour,
01:17transporting that moisture and energy northward.
01:20And at the same time, we've got a couple of upper-level disturbances.
01:22These little yellow-red blotches, these are little areas of vorticity or short waves aloft,
01:28basically cool fronts aloft that all combine to produce this area of instability and showers and thunderstorms we're seeing fill in here.
01:35Widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall here for central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.
01:40There will be some locally higher amounts, though.
01:42There will be some 4, 5, 6-inch isolated pockets, but exactly where that happens,
01:46still a big question mark until we really see these rain bands form on radar.
01:50So, wave 1 goes through much of the day today.
01:52We get some lulls in it, and then largely an overnight break.
01:56Maybe even in the evening, the last hour before sunset, you might be able to get outside and dodge some of the puddles.
02:01But another wave develops tomorrow morning into midday before it wraps up later in the day tomorrow.
02:07Now, there is a risk of severe storms to talk about today, too.
02:10Places like Mankato, Rochester, down to Austin, Elbert Lee, in the slight risk, level 2 out of 5.
02:15The Twin Cities, kind of out of a precaution in that marginal risk, level 1 out of 5, if some of those storms could hold together.
02:22But really, the instability and the parameters for severe weather will be confined to where that warm front is sitting now in southern Minnesota.
02:29That's a good area of shear that can potentially produce some tornadic storms.
02:33It will all depend upon how much sun we can get in southern Minnesota to destabilize things.
02:38There's a couple of different models here showing the updraft helicity tracks, basically a look at the track of some of the strongest storms.
02:44I'll keep it just south of the Twin Cities.
02:46But something we'll have to keep an eye on later today because a warm front tends to be some of our best tornado-producing setup here in Minnesota.
02:53Dew points will drop temporarily Friday.
02:56That's the one nice day.
02:57And then humid for the weekend again, Saturday and Sunday.
03:00Dew points will be back in the 70s.
03:02And we will still have some of these little ripples moving through the atmosphere, these upper-level disturbances.
03:06So there is still the chance of storms Saturday and Sunday.
03:09Not a washout, though.
03:10Neither Saturday or Sunday look like today or tomorrow where we'll have periods of the whole day or half of the day raining.
03:17But we will see some thunderstorms probably Saturday, Friday night, Saturday in northwestern Minnesota.
03:21And then whatever holds together could come through early Saturday.
03:23And then we could see some regeneration of storms somewhere in central or eastern Minnesota late in the day Saturday with that heating.
03:30We're going to get close to 90 degrees for some spots.
03:33And then still unsettled, I'm afraid, on Sunday, too.
03:35Some thunderstorms popping up potentially in the late afternoon.
03:38But it's pretty difficult to pinpoint the specific timing with these fast-moving little ripples more than 48 hours in advance.
03:46So chance of storms both Saturday and Sunday.
03:49But neither day will be a washout, just to be aware of that as you make some weekend plans.
03:55You know, our summer weekends are precious around here.
03:58Rain-cooled temperatures, though, today and tomorrow in the low 70s.
04:01Heavy rain today, again, on and off, showers and thunderstorms, but with some lulls in between.
04:07And again, I think this evening into the overnight will be a largely dry period before that second wave moves in.
04:13Friday, the one almost guaranteed dry day and more comfortable, but the weekend will be unsettled.
04:18But also steamy, next week looks quieter, too, as those dew points drop should allow for some sunnier, more stable skies.
