Leftover storms Saturday morning? Bigger severe threat later in the day?

Bring Me The News

June 27, 2024: The latest weather update from Sven Sundgaard.

Transcript

00:00Well, we have a one-day dry break today. It's not going to be real warm and sunny,

00:04but I think we'll see some peaks of sun. Storm chances for the weekend,

00:07some could be severe Saturday, and then calmer to start next week.

00:21So, of course, we picked up a lot of rainfall over the last couple of days,

00:24and above normal rainfall for the month of June for most of central and southern Minnesota now,

00:28thanks to this recent rain. Believe it or not, we were running deficits before this most recent rain.

00:33But pockets of five, six inches of rain in west-central Minnesota, parts of southeastern Minnesota,

00:38but even the Twin Cities, we saw almost five inches of rain in Plymouth over the last few days.

00:43Temperatures in the 70s today, mostly. Low 80s west, where we'll see some sun,

00:46but you can see a lot of low clouds hanging on. We will gradually shrink that, though.

00:51Western and northern Minnesota, the best chances of seeing some sun.

00:54That's why temperatures will be warmer there.

00:55But I think we'll see peaks of afternoon sun, and that'll be enough to push us into the 70s.

00:59But we're already watching this mass of clouds and all these little yellow X's.

01:03Those are little vorticity markers. This is in the middle of the atmosphere, 10,000, 15,000 feet up.

01:08And they're essentially little pools of cool air aloft, basically cool fronts aloft

01:12that help to generate instability and produce some thunderstorms.

01:15And all it needs is some moisture, which will be coming back.

01:18That front has moved into Iowa once again.

01:20And this is the same frontal boundary for the last week that's been just going back and forth.

01:24So it started last weekend way up into northern Minnesota.

01:27Of course, it was very humid and hot.

01:29And then it just drifted into Iowa, back into Minnesota occasionally.

01:32And that's what's been producing these on and off storm chances.

01:35This evening, we're going to see storms develop with that upper level system in North Dakota.

01:39And then those storms will sweep eastward.

01:41So severe storms in western Minnesota, by the time they get here early tomorrow morning,

01:45probably not severe.

01:48Very small chance that they stay severe.

01:50But we probably will be woke up to some showers and storms 5, 6, 7 a.m. tomorrow.

01:55So that severe risk is for the western part of the state,

01:58for the severity holding together for those storms initially.

02:01But then again, as they move east, probably losing some steam.

02:04But tomorrow, that's a different story.

02:06Central and southern Minnesota, we do have a slight risk, level 2 out of 5,

02:09for severe storms, including the Twin Cities.

02:12We're going to see storms develop in the evening hours.

02:14It's going to take most of the day.

02:16But by the evening, we probably will see storms break out.

02:19A break from the muggy dew points today, too.

02:21Those dew points further to the south, as I mentioned with that front.

02:24But tomorrow, it surges back northward well into the 70s.

02:28Very humid air.

02:29And that, combined with that upper level disturbance,

02:31is going to create the next storm chance.

02:33Temperatures will be in the upper 80s, even low 90s in southwestern Minnesota tomorrow.

02:37So, plenty of heat and dew points in the mid to upper 70s.

02:41That means a lot of instability.

02:43CAPE, convective available potential energy,

02:45essentially is that combo of temperature and dew point.

02:48And we have some very high values.

02:49This is a lot of energy available to any storms that develop.

02:53And in addition, we're going to have that meandering boundary.

02:56So, that, combined with shifting winds aloft, some shear,

03:00means that the significant tornado parameter is quite high as well here

03:04across central, south-central Minnesota tomorrow.

03:06So, we're going to see storms pop probably 6, 7, 8 p.m.,

03:09central and western Minnesota, and then fill in and track east.

03:12And those initial storms could produce some tornadoes,

03:15large hail and damaging wind gusts possible, too.

03:18And then this front will slowly shift southeast here as we head into Sunday.

03:22Looks like we could see some storms early Sunday,

03:24but then I think most of the day Sunday will be dry for the Twin Cities.

03:28Some isolated storms certainly possible as we head into the afternoon,

03:31but mainly across northern Minnesota.

03:33Still steamy, upper 80s.

03:34So, this is the European model creating those storms tomorrow evening again into tomorrow night.

03:39Doesn't keep that activity going through the night like the high-resolution rapid refresh model.

03:43But then some isolated spotty storms northeastern Minnesota, both Sunday and Monday.

03:48Again, an isolated chance here in the Twin Cities area, but I think we will stay mainly dry Sunday afternoon and Monday.

03:55But then next week, more storminess.

03:57Looks like Wednesday night into Thursday.

03:59Thursday night could see some storms.

04:01Hopefully, we get that out of our system by the 4th of July.

04:04A week away, though, still difficult to time these things out.

04:07These fast-moving disturbances really can't pinpoint timing until we're within that 48-hour time frame window.

04:13But over the next seven days, we could be looking at a lot of rain again.

04:16This is a blend of the models or a weighted average.

04:19Another one to three inches of rain over the next seven days.

04:23So, free watering for your gardens continue.

04:2675 today.

04:28Definitely warmer than yesterday.

04:29All because it's just going to be dry, finally, and some peaks of afternoon sun.

04:34We clear out probably by midday tomorrow.

04:36It's going to get steamy.

04:3788.

04:38Very hot in the afternoon.

04:39That heat index will probably be in the upper 90s with temperatures in the upper 80s, but dew points in the mid-70s.

04:45It's going to feel hot.

04:46Evening storms develop into tomorrow evening and tomorrow night.

04:48Again, those could be strong to severe.

04:51Just mainly isolated chances Sunday, Monday.

04:53Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, we should see a lot of sunshine.

04:56So, we calm down.

04:58Those dew points will finally stay to the south for a few days.

05:01So, we're going to be more comfortable.

05:03But that also takes out the instability in the atmosphere and allows us to quiet down for a few days before we see that moisture and instability.

05:11Work back in here by Thursday of next week.

05:28See you next time.

05:30Bye.

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05:55Bye.

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