00:00Well, our next round of showers already moves in late today into tonight.
00:03Mostly out of here in time for a decent-looking weekend,
00:06but next week is looking hot, humid, and we will have some storms.
00:19So next disturbance already producing showers this morning in northwestern Minnesota
00:23and throughout north and south Dakota, and this is going to be the focus for
00:26more storms to develop later this afternoon, and especially southwestern Minnesota,
00:30we could see some strong, maybe even a couple severe storms later today.
00:34Doesn't look real impressive, but there could be some stronger ones.
00:37You can see flaring up here.
00:38Northern Minnesota kind of on and off showers through the day.
00:41Those showers and storms then track east into the evening and overnight,
00:44what's left of them anyway.
00:46Now, that high-resolution rapid refresh model, a little aggressive here on the rainfall
00:51and rainfall totals, but the average of the models generally does pain to half inches.
00:56to three-quarters of an inch or so of rainfall here across the southern half of the state,
01:01but kind of trailing off as we head in the Twin Cities.
01:03But there is the potential for some heavier amounts in any of those thunderstorms.
01:06This is always the case, locally higher amounts.
01:10Slight risk, level two out of five here of some severe weather south and west of the Minnesota River
01:15there in the southwest part of the state.
01:16We do see the supercell index get a little elevated,
01:19and also the significant tornado parameter, much more so, though, into Nebraska and western Iowa.
01:26There's the significant tornado parameter.
01:28Again, not terribly impressive.
01:30I think the slight risk is maybe a little exaggerated.
01:32Marginal risk for most of the rest of us here in southern Minnesota, level one out of five.
01:36That's a little more in line with what I'm seeing in the models here.
01:39So one or two isolated severe storms.
01:42Clouds to start the day early tomorrow, and then those clouds decrease.
01:44Should see more sunshine in the afternoon.
01:46That'll help push us closer to 80 degrees, upper 70s to near 80 degree temperatures, and just a little muggy.
01:52So after some very dry air the last 24 to 36 hours, we'll see those low to mid-60s dew points tomorrow and Sunday.
01:59So not oppressive, not like what we saw late Tuesday, but getting a little muggier.
02:04A little more typical, of course, for mid-July.
02:06Those temperatures are going to try to be more typical, too.
02:09Still touch below normal tomorrow, upper 70s to near 80.
02:11Closer to 80, if not into the low 80s Sunday, we should see a little more sunshine because we'll start the day with sun and have it throughout much of the day.
02:19So a tad warmer there, but real humid air moves in next week, especially by Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.
02:26Dew points get into the 70s.
02:27That's that tropical air, and that means inevitably any little disturbance in the atmosphere could easily produce some thunderstorms, especially in the overnight hours.
02:36We talked about this yesterday.
02:37We're getting into that late summer pattern where we're kind of capped during the day.
02:40But there are things that can happen at night to get those storms going.
02:45The low-level jet streams, little minor upper-level disturbances.
02:48This is overlaying the upper-level pattern and precip.
02:52And you can see that ring-of-fire pattern as showers and storms kind of bubble up around the center of the heat dome.
02:59And when we look at the five-day rainfall total, forecast rainfall total, Monday through Friday next week,
03:03you really see that rain wrapping around what will be, overall, the average placement of the center of the heat dome next week.
03:11So already Sunday night, we could have some storms.
03:13This is the European model.
03:15Monday night, maybe some more storms.
03:17And then wait for it.
03:19Tuesday night, more storms developing.
03:21And then Wednesday night.
03:22Harder to get these storms developed during the day, but with these upper-level disturbances and that accelerating low-level jet stream,
03:284,000 feet above the ground at night, that can produce some of these MCCs, these mesoscale convective complexes we talked about yesterday,
03:36that can produce some wind gusts, a lot of heavy rain in those kind of typical late-night thunderstorms that we see here late in the summer.
03:43There's really a chance kind of every day, but it's not going to be a washout.
03:46During the day, hot, humid, mix of sun and clouds, and then overnight thunder chances.
03:51It's pretty difficult to time them out right now, but there's kind of a disturbance coming through every 18 hours or so.
03:58So there really is that frequent chance of rain.
04:01And over the course of the whole week, most of us should get at least a decent rainfall, the way it'll add up here with those hit-and-miss storms.
04:08But it is going to be much warmer, upper 80s, if not near 90, for the middle of next week.
