Minnesota forecast: Heat, fire danger and then storms

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00:00Well, the temperatures are warming back up today already,

00:03well into the 80s, briefly cooler tomorrow,

00:05but we're in for a May heat wave.

00:06Temperatures are gonna be consistently 80 plus Sunday

00:09into much of next week, but a pattern change is ahead.

00:22Another frosty start for northeastern Minnesota,

00:24several places below freezing.

00:26Hibbing dipped to 27.

00:29Graham Ray was below freezing as well.

00:31Not as many sites up there below freezing this morning,

00:34and temperatures are already soaring this morning.

00:36We're gonna be seeing highs in the low to mid 80s here

00:38across central and southern Minnesota,

00:40including the Twin Cities, but a weak cool front,

00:43as advertised, is sweeping across the state.

00:46Right now, it's across northwestern Minnesota.

00:48Broken band of clouds with that and a wind shift,

00:51but it is gonna be just enough to maybe touch off

00:54an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

00:56For northern Minnesota, a couple of midday sprinkles,

00:59but as it gets into southern Minnesota,

01:01Twin Cities by evening with that peak heating of the day,

01:03we could see one or two brief downpours out of that.

01:07But if you do get that, consider yourself pretty lucky.

01:10These showers are gonna be very isolated,

01:12not a lot of moisture to work with,

01:13but what the front will bring is some smoke.

01:15Yeah, we're already looking at the first bout of wildfire smoke

01:18of the season coming from wildfires in western Manitoba.

01:22Minnesota Pollution Control Agency monitoring that.

01:25It is gonna be a brief window,

01:26probably just a few hours of mainly elevated smoke,

01:29but we can see it on satellite imagery here.

01:31These are coming, this smoke is coming from some fires

01:33in northwest Manitoba that are already going,

01:36where, of course, things are not green quite up there yet.

01:39And the mottled forecast smoke plume does bring it into the Twin Cities

01:44by the evening hours.

01:45This is 11 p.m., so a couple of hours of some brief smoke,

01:49but then it'll kind of dissipate in the overnight hours.

01:51And temperatures tomorrow, just a little cooler.

01:53You're not gonna notice much of a difference.

01:55Upper 70s to near 80s still.

01:57Well, northern Minnesota will be in the 60s and 70s,

01:59but Sunday, we're already back roaring here,

02:02well into the 80s, mid to upper 80s Twin Cities.

02:05Low 90s, probably, in western Minnesota.

02:08I think we're gonna see several places in the 90 degree category.

02:12And temperatures that are gonna be 20 to 30 degrees

02:15above normal on Sunday.

02:16Just very warm for this early in May, especially now.

02:20End of May can get hot,

02:22but the first half of May usually does not see temperatures like this.

02:24So several records could fall across the state.

02:27All those areas that are boxed in there are potential record highs.

02:30Combined with something we haven't seen much of this week,

02:33wind, creating potential fire conditions.

02:36We have a fire weather watch for Sunday

02:37that could become a red flag warning.

02:39We're gonna have low relative humidity values, 15 to 25%.

02:43We've had that many of the afternoons this week

02:45with just not a lot of moisture, these hot, sunny days.

02:48But the component that's been missing is the wind.

02:50That's gonna change.

02:51Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.

02:53Windy days here, 10 to 20,

02:55even close to 30 mile an hour sustained winds in western Minnesota.

02:59Gusts will be over 30 miles an hour.

03:00So that's the missing component that will create the potential fire danger

03:04that we're gonna be watching for here.

03:06And that overall upper level ridge of heat stays with us through the middle of the week.

03:11But finally, this big trough in the west is gonna kick that east,

03:15and that's gonna set us up for a bit of a stormier, or at least unsettled pattern.

03:19Already Wednesday night, the first chance of some showers and thunderstorms develops

03:22into Thursday and Thursday night.

03:24This is our next real best chance of any rainfall.

03:27And after this warm, dry stretch, we're gonna definitely need that rain already running up

03:31some deficits here.

03:33So hopefully that rain pans out by Thursday.

03:3685, though, today.

03:37Again, an isolated shower or a thundershower this evening.

03:40Probably in that 6 to 8 p.m. timeframe for the Twin Cities area.

03:43Again, very few and far between, but there are gonna be a couple of them around.

03:4778 tomorrow, beautiful Saturday, lots of sun, still light winds.

03:51But Sunday, it gets windy and hot, kind of like a blast furnace.

03:55Dry heat, though, upper 80s, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, probably.

04:00But by Wednesday, we're gonna start to see those dew points increase into at least the

04:0450s, because we're gonna start to get into more of that southwest to northeast oriented

04:08upper level flow that allows some of that gulf moisture to slowly move north.

04:12That combined with the next couple of ripples in the atmosphere means that we will see finally

04:16the chance of some showers and thunderstorms that we, of course, desperately will need by late

04:21next week.

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