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Active pattern for Minnesota starts with heavy rain Wednesday-Friday
Bring Me The News
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6/10/2025
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00:00
Enjoy that sunshine today. We are not going to see a whole lot of it the next couple of days.
00:03
We are in for an active and potentially very wet pattern starting tomorrow through Friday with mostly a dry weekend.
00:20
Pretty nice to see the sunshine again today.
00:23
Still some clouds lingering for northeastern Minnesota and the northern part of the state might even see an isolated shower pop up.
00:28
You can still see some of those kind of puffier cumulus clouds that's showing.
00:32
There's a little bit of instability still, a loft at least, for the northern part of the state.
00:36
But low 80s today, close to 90 on the Buffalo Ridge, so very warm temperatures.
00:42
And then tomorrow will still be warmish in the 70s, but a big temperature and moisture contrast the next couple of days.
00:48
We've got a warm front that's going to stall basically just south of us.
00:52
Temperatures in the 80s and 90s south of that front.
00:54
dew points in the 60s to near 70 degrees will be on the cooler and somewhat drier side of that.
01:00
But that doesn't mean we're not going to see the moisture that will be a result of that frontal boundary stalling out.
01:05
So these are surface winds, and you can see that frontal boundary stall out south wind south of the front,
01:10
and then an easterly flow north of that front.
01:13
It's going to take a couple ingredients to squeeze the moisture out of that setup,
01:17
and it looks like that's going to come together.
01:18
We're going to have a low-level jet stream, winds about 4,000 feet up.
01:21
These accelerate at night, and we're going to see 30 to 50 mile an hour winds pushing that warmth and moisture
01:27
that is going to be stalled at the surface aloft, and that'll produce showers and thunderstorms.
01:31
The other ingredient we need is a couple upper-level disturbances,
01:34
basically cool pools of air aloft that generate instability.
01:38
The biggest one comes Thursday night.
01:40
We'll have more of a minor one tomorrow that'll produce some showers and thunderstorms,
01:44
but we're really looking at Thursday night for the heavy rainfall potential.
01:48
Now, the blend of the models that sort of average the models gives a wide area of one to three inches of rain.
01:53
There will be locally higher amounts, but there are some variations in the models still.
01:58
European model is the most in line with the average,
02:01
but you look at these pockets of over four inches of possible rainfall.
02:06
The NAM model, kind of out to lunch.
02:08
There's a lot of variation.
02:09
The American and NAM models are going farther north,
02:11
but to really get a better idea of what's going on,
02:13
we've got to look at the ensembles of the models.
02:16
Basically, all the little variations of each model averaged together,
02:19
and then we get a clearer picture that it is really a southern Minnesota lineup here
02:24
for that heaviest of the precip here, probably just south of the Twin Cities,
02:27
but we might be in it.
02:28
We're really on the edge of it.
02:29
So, already a few showers possible late tonight, early tomorrow.
02:33
Again, north of that warm front.
02:34
This will be garden variety stuff, though, into the evening tomorrow,
02:37
and if we see quite a bit of it, that'll keep the temperatures down.
02:40
And then that'll flare up a little bit more heading into early Thursday,
02:44
but mostly near the front.
02:45
But it's Thursday night.
02:46
We're going to see things kind of explode here across central and southern Minnesota.
02:50
And I mean explode not in terms of severe storms,
02:52
but thunderstorms that will produce some heavy rainfall
02:55
because we are going to be north of that frontal position.
02:57
That's probably going to keep severe weather at a minimal.
03:00
And the Storm Prediction Center is looking at that, too.
03:03
Marginal risk, level one out of five for southern Minnesota
03:05
into northwest Iowa and Nebraska.
03:07
It doesn't mean there won't be some severe storms, but they'll be very isolated.
03:11
Most of the energy, that CAPE, convective available potential energy,
03:15
is confined to the warm front and points south.
03:18
So, it's going to be hard to get really organized storms for severe weather, at least.
03:23
So, that's what we're going to be watching here.
03:25
Some showers and thunderstorms the next couple days,
03:27
but heavy rain potential, really, Thursday night.
03:30
And then next week, above normal temperatures,
03:32
but also continuing that trend of above normal precipitation.
03:34
We could be into a stormier pattern again Monday and Tuesday next week.
03:38
But it looks as though, at least right now, Saturday and Sunday should be dry.
03:43
Not real warm Saturday, but at least dry at this point.
03:46
82 today, low to mid-70s the next couple days.
03:49
Probably only 60s on Friday because we'll have those clouds hanging on.
03:52
Morning showers and thunderstorms.
03:54
Again, the wettest periods look to be Thursday night,
03:56
and then early tomorrow, and then late tomorrow.
03:59
Otherwise, spotty stuff in between are going to be kind of the norm.
04:03
Can't rule it out at any point starting tomorrow into Thursday and Friday.
04:06
But lingering clouds Saturday, a little brighter Sunday.
04:09
Warmer Monday, but we might see some more thunderstorms again already late in the day Monday.
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