00:00Well, heat and humidity are building in for the weekend, but first we have a couple rounds of storms tonight and tomorrow night.
00:04They could be severe for parts of the state, and it's going to be cooler and wetter next week.
00:18So we got sunshine for most of southern Minnesota today.
00:21Just a couple of patches of clouds, some ongoing showers for northeastern Minnesota.
00:26We had a couple thunderstorms roll through parts of east-central Minnesota earlier this morning.
00:29But there's more where that came from.
00:31Temperatures start to warm up today, mid to upper 80s here in southern Minnesota.
00:35I think we'll see some 90-degree readings already in southwestern Minnesota, and you're going to notice the dew points really increase tomorrow.
00:41Sticky today, low 60s, but tomorrow they soar into the 70s here by Friday evening.
00:46So it's that surge of moisture and heat that will help produce some thunderstorms mostly in the overnight hours.
00:51And then Saturday, yeah, low to mid-70s dew points, but with temperatures into the 90s.
00:56So we do have a slight risk, level 2 out of 5 for severe storms tonight from eastern North Dakota through the swath of central Minnesota into western Wisconsin, including the Twin Cities.
01:05Looks like the main threats will be large hail and some isolated wind gusts here.
01:10The storms will be more elevated, meaning that they develop above the ground rather than surface-based storms that become more organized and more severe.
01:17So we have an upper-level disturbance coming in on some pretty rapid-moving mid- to upper-level winds, and we've got a low-level jet.
01:24Talk about these all the time.
01:25This is what really produces those overnight storms, basically a conveyor belt of moisture.
01:30They'll be roaring at up to 55 miles an hour, just 4,000 feet above the ground, and that's what produces storms from that base upwards.
01:38And that's why they don't typically produce a whole lot of severe weather, as far as tornadoes at least.
01:43So we do have enough energy, the most unstable energy, aloft, but surface-based energy will be pretty limited here because those storms will be developing later tonight.
01:53But this shows those updraft tracks where the strongest storms could track.
01:57Just one model.
01:59The models are really having kind of a difficult time with the timing and placement of these storms both tonight and tomorrow night,
02:04but it does look as likely that we're going to see them here across somewhere in central Minnesota.
02:08Wind gusts don't look too bad, but there are some isolated severe wind gusts, so that's why there's that chance.
02:13Some of those could produce those 60-mile-an-hour-plus wind gusts that are what we consider severe.
02:18So by midnight, we're going to start to see those showers and storms fill in here across central Minnesota
02:22and then fill in more towards the early morning hour.
02:24So Twin Cities, you might be woken up early here to some thunder and downpours early tomorrow morning.
02:31And then we clear out a little bit.
02:33It's going to be steamy tomorrow.
02:34As I mentioned, the dew points go up.
02:36Temperatures as well, mid to upper 80s, 90s in southwestern Minnesota.
02:39And then tomorrow night, more storms develop.
02:41Similar scenario, another disturbance, another low-level jet stream,
02:45and basically most of central and northern Minnesota under the slight risk for tomorrow night.
02:49Again, a level 2 out of 5.
02:51And once again, more elevated nature storms.
02:53Large hail and some wind gusts are the main threats.
02:56We'll see most of those storms develop.
02:58It looks like central and northern Minnesota.
03:00Tomorrow night, storms may be more north of the Twin Cities because that low-level jet stream
03:04will be pointed a little bit further to the north and northeast too.
03:08And then it's hot and humid for the weekend.
03:11Excessive heat watch or extreme heat watch here for most of the state,
03:14except for the north shore and the northwestern corner of the state.
03:18We're talking about some pretty incredible heat indices here.
03:21We haven't seen this, of course, yet this season, really.
03:23Temperatures in the low to mid-90s across southern Minnesota.
03:25I think southwest Minnesota could hit 100,
03:28but our heat index will probably reach the triple digits
03:31across central and southern Minnesota Saturday afternoon.
03:35And then heading into Sunday, still hot, still in the 90s.
03:38It looks like it'll be slightly less humid,
03:40so maybe that heat index will be a few degrees cooler,
03:42but it's going to be hot Saturday and Sunday.
03:45Could be even heat advisory hot tomorrow too,
03:47depending upon how quickly we clear out.
03:49But if you don't like the heat, next week's much cooler.
03:51Look at this, by Tuesday, low 70s,
03:53because we're going to be in a cool, wet pattern again,
03:55kind of like last week, though hopefully not as cold.
03:58We're going to have waves of moisture.
03:59The first one with the cold front, Monday, will bring some thunderstorms.
04:03And then Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday,
04:04we've got just kind of a series of systems coming through,
04:07bringing rain and thunderstorms, limited severe risk,
04:11mainly just kind of rain here,
04:12because the jet stream will be lifting north over the weekend
04:14as that heat dome builds in.
04:16But then as we head into next week,
04:17the jet stream drops with that cooler air mass,
04:20and that means every system is going to be kind of lined up right over us.
04:22So we're talking about quite a bit of rainfall potentially
04:25when we look at the next seven days.
04:26Now, this includes tonight and tomorrow night's rainfall a little bit, too,
04:29but a lot of this is, for southern Minnesota, is next week's rain.
04:32We could be looking at one to four more inches of rainfall
04:34over the next seven days.
04:37You know, here we go.
04:4087 today.
04:41Again, the chances of storms will be overnight.
04:43In fact, late tonight for the Twin Cities,
04:45into the early morning hours tomorrow.
04:47Those then move on.
04:48We'll see some midday sun, steamy tomorrow.
04:51Dry for the weekend, just hot and humid.
04:52Mid-90s, both days.
04:55And importantly, look at those overnight lows.
04:57They don't get real cool.
04:58So that's why the heat becomes kind of an issue
05:01for folks who don't have AC,
05:04because it just isn't going to cool off at night.
05:06So there's no relief,
05:07and it just builds in those buildings, of course,
05:09over the course of a couple of days.
05:11Cooler weather is coming next week,
05:12but as I mentioned, it's going to be kind of gross.
05:15Hopefully we get it out of here in time for next weekend.
