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Oppressive Fourth of July heat with storm chances through Saturday in Minnesota
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00:00
Well, it is getting steamy out there today. Temperatures will be once again near 90 degrees,
00:04
even hotter and more humid Friday, and we are tracking storms Friday night into Saturday over
00:08
the holiday weekend. So we have this developing low to our west. It's already generating some
00:23
clouds and storms across the Dakotas and Montana, and a cool front is going to be swinging in with
00:28
it to bring relief to the heat and humidity by Sunday. But the next few days, pretty steamy.
00:33
Dew points were well into the 60s and 70s across central and southern Minnesota this morning
00:37
and probably won't drop much here midday. Yesterday, we saw those dew points plummet because that
00:42
moisture was pretty shallow in the atmosphere. And as we heat things up and mix it up, that moisture
00:48
kind of spreads out through the atmosphere. But you can see the difference this morning versus
00:52
yesterday. Yesterday, that moisture was shallow. It's this line here. Today, that line much closer
00:58
to the temperatures and a deeper level of moisture. So dew points will drop slightly,
01:04
but that shows you that that humidity is really kind of building here across southern Minnesota.
01:08
So heat index into the 90s this afternoon, close to 100 in the western part of the state where we do
01:13
have a heat advisory already today for L'Aquiparro and Yellow Medicine counties, and then the rest of
01:17
us for tomorrow afternoon. So we are going to look for some isolated thundershowers again today,
01:21
like we saw yesterday, very isolated, hit and miss. And anything that does develop could produce
01:26
some large hail. And then some storms overnight tonight into northern Minnesota, ahead of that
01:31
warm front, ahead of the surge of moisture and heat. So northern Minnesota primarily the chance
01:36
overnight tonight. So kind of two separate risks today. Twin cities, southeastern Minnesota, western
01:41
Wisconsin, marginal risk of severe weather for this afternoon and evening. And then overnight for
01:45
northern Minnesota into the Dakotas where we have that better risk, slight risk of severe storms
01:50
into North Dakota and the far northwest corner of the state. But tomorrow is going to be hot and
01:55
humid during the day. Plenty of sun, great day to be in water into the 90s across most of the state,
02:01
in fact, and that heat index. Yeah, those will be in the 90s really everywhere except for the North
02:05
Shore. It'll be the one place to cool off. But the storms that we are tracking for tomorrow night
02:10
and Saturday, not looking to generate a lot of severe weather, which is good news. Marginal risk only level
02:16
one out of five pretty much statewide. So some very isolated severe storms. But because of the timing
02:21
and the lack of shear, there's not going to be a lot of organization to these storms. So you want to
02:26
see larger areas of red, basically. This is forecast shear and we just don't really have it with this
02:32
system. So that's what organizes storms and makes them severe versus garden variety. There will be
02:38
plenty of juice though. CAPE, that instability measurement, basically the combination of temperature and
02:44
dew point high during the day. But we're not going to see the storms really pop during the day. And
02:47
then once they come in in the overnight, that energy, of course, diminishes as things cool off.
02:52
And another way to measure the organizational potential for storms is the supercell index,
02:56
which takes into account instability and shear. And it's just very minimal tomorrow night into
03:02
Saturday. So again, we're not really looking at much in the way of severe weather, but there will
03:06
be showers and thunderstorms around Friday night. And the good news is the timing is slowing down. So
03:10
fireworks for many of us will be okay, except northwestern Minnesota. So here's 10 p.m.,
03:16
one model scenario, keeps storms well to the west. And then moving in by maybe 4 a.m. Saturday,
03:22
so you might be woken up to some showers and thunderstorms. And then Saturday does look
03:25
unsettled. Not a washout all day, but there are going to be scattered showers and storms around.
03:30
Some peaks of sun though, too. It's still going to be pretty steamy. So here's another model scenario,
03:34
a little more advanced, 10 p.m. tomorrow evening, though still to the west. So Twin Cities,
03:38
eastern Minnesota, probably okay for fireworks. But then during the day Saturday, yeah, just kind
03:42
of a lot of showers and thunderstorms around, a mix of clouds and sun, unsettled. So if you are
03:47
going to be by water, pay attention to the weather because you will have probably some storms to
03:51
dodge. And rainfall, not particularly heavy for those of us who've gotten nailed the last few times,
03:57
central and southern Minnesota, probably a half inch to an inch of rain on average. But of course,
04:01
thunderstorms can produce some isolated heavier amounts. Looks like it will be heavier in northern
04:05
Minnesota where they need it. That's the only area in the latest drought monitor to watch here.
04:10
We have drought, stubborn pocket of drought here in north central Minnesota. But now, for the first
04:14
time in a while, severe drought creeping into Roseau and Lake of the Woods County. So very dry up there
04:20
and hopefully they can get some rain here out of these next couple of days. So near 90 this afternoon,
04:24
but it will feel more like, oh, 93 to 95 degrees. Isolated thunderstorm again possible late in the day.
04:31
Tomorrow, dry during the day for the Twin Cities. 93 for the high, but dew points in the 70s means it
04:37
will feel like it's well into the 90s, if not close to 100. Saturday will be cooler just because
04:42
there'll be more clouds around, some occasional showers and storms. I know it's not ideal right in
04:46
the middle of the holiday weekend, but Sunday looks gorgeous. The humidity drops. Monday, lots of
04:51
sunshine too. Next chance of maybe some spotty showers comes in on Tuesday, but that actually
04:56
is looking like a diminishing chance of rain. So we generally get into a more settled pattern
05:01
after Saturday. Yeah, go figure. After the holiday weekend next week.
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