Latest on severe weather, tornado potential in Minnesota

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00:00So we have a severe threat of storms today, conditional though, depending upon how much

00:03sun we can get. Ongoing morning storms could change the outlook for the afternoon and evening,

00:08but heat is building in later this week and the pattern remains unsettled.

00:21So we have several upper-level disturbances moving through the atmosphere, all these little

00:25Xs, those are what we call little short waves, basically cool fronts in the middle of the

00:29atmosphere. Of course, you get strong summer sunshine, a lot of moisture that heats up the

00:34ground, and if you cool things off above it, that allows those storms to bubble up. So instability

00:39will be definitely something we're watching today. Cool front coming in, too, from the west

00:43with this surface low. Temperatures will be a little cooler tomorrow and Wednesday with a bit of a drop

00:48in the dew points, too. But overall, a much worse week compared to last week, which isn't hard to

00:53do. It was pretty chilly Friday. Coolest June high temperature in 16 years. So this is a look at the

00:59radar picture from this morning, 10 a.m. You could see these storms that have been kind of ongoing,

01:03on and off, and that may affect the afternoon outlook for storms because if we don't get enough sun,

01:08we may not destabilize the atmosphere enough to see those most severe storms potentially. So a very low

01:15confidence, messy forecast for today. If we get enough sun, we get warm up quickly into the mid to upper

01:2180s. Dew points will be high regardless. 60s and even pushing to the low 70s this evening. So plenty

01:28of instability to work with here as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. But these are all

01:32model projections, and the models have not been handling the morning storms very well. We will

01:37have shear moving in. Those wind shifts in direction and speed aloft that help to organize storms.

01:43You get that horizontal spin that a thunderstorm can then turn vertical. Could be a tornado day. Could have a few

01:49of those potentially somewhere in central or southern Minnesota with those initial storms. Significant

01:54tornado parameter quite high. But again, where does this play out? Is it over the Twin Cities? Is it to

01:59the west? Or does we not really see much of it at all because there's too many clouds? Different

02:05variations here in the updraft tracks too between two different models. The NAM much more intense.

02:11So it looks like storms could develop in the late afternoon in western Minnesota and then track east.

02:17And it's those initial storms that could be potentially some tornado producers. But again,

02:21this is one model scenario. Really, none of the models have handled this morning thunderstorm

02:25activity very well. So we'll see what happens for the late afternoon and evening. But basically,

02:29if you're outside at 3 p.m. and it's hot and humid, the sun's out. Plan on storms probably popping.

02:36Cooler behind the front tomorrow in the 70s. But we have several other upper level disturbances

02:40moving through. I think the Tuesday, Wednesday one will stay more south. But somewhere in the state,

02:45there will be a shower or thunderstorm every day this week. That's the kind of pattern we're

02:48dealing with here. So just kind of an example. Again, these are model solutions. Don't pay

02:52attention to where. But specs of precept Tuesday, maybe to the south on Wednesday. Thursday now,

02:58some of the models are producing a system. Others are not. So anything past 48 hours,

03:04the forecast could change. Just be aware of that. But we will probably be seeing a heat dome build in

03:08by the end of the week. It's been hot to the west. Some of that moves in by Friday into the weekend.

03:13We're talking about temperatures well into the 80s. Maybe 90 degrees again. That's kind of eluded us

03:18lately with the cool, wet pattern we've been in by Sunday. Looking at highs maybe low to mid-90s

03:25across southern Minnesota. Maybe hitting 90 as early as Friday. But it'll depend on storms on Friday,

03:30which could be our next best chance of more widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms.

03:35So again, there is a possibility of a shower each of these next three days. But

03:39not putting the raindrops in there because it is, I think, a pretty low chance for the Twin Cities at

03:43least. But again, this is a volatile forecast. Could change with this unsettled pattern. But

03:49overall, you can see temperatures are much warmer this week heading into the weekend. And that's going

03:54to allow things to really warm up here. Finally, some summer weather everybody's been looking for by

03:59the weekend. We'll be complaining about the heat and the humidity.

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