Several rounds of storms possible across Minnesota this week

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00:00Well, we recap the weekend heat, which is now moving on.

00:03Some thunderstorms possible in southeastern Minnesota,

00:05and heavy rain potentially for much of southern Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday.

00:19So the heat definitely panned out.

00:2196 the high in the Twin Cities Saturday.

00:23That broke a record. St. Cloud broke a record.

00:2595 yesterday. That didn't break the record for the day.

00:28But heat index of 106.

00:30Hotspot was Canby in western Minnesota.

00:33102 for the actual temperature.

00:35Heat index is about 108 there.

00:38And a reminder that these temperatures were made three to four times more likely due to climate change.

00:41This is Climate Central's rapid attribution analysis.

00:44And the red and brown is that climate shift index of three to four,

00:48meaning made three to four times more likely.

00:50So June heat happens, but usually it's only low 90s

00:54and maybe one or two random days rather than consecutive days.

00:57And this kind of humidity.

00:59So it is a little early for that kind of heat.

01:00But also multiple rounds of severe storms, numerous wind damage reports,

01:04and of course a deadly tornado in North Dakota.

01:07Bemidji got hit with over 100 mile per hour winds Friday night that knocked down numerous trees.

01:13Luckily, much quieter activity today.

01:16We are going to see the severe risk in southeastern Minnesota.

01:18That front is moving through.

01:19It's a cool front.

01:20And the timing of it means that most of us aren't going to see anything out of it redeveloping later today

01:24because that front will be in southeastern Minnesota.

01:26That's where temperatures will warm back up into the mid-80s today.

01:29That's where the humidity will be.

01:30So around 2, 3 o'clock, we could see storms re-fire in southeastern Minnesota

01:34and then track south and southeast with that front.

01:37But Twin Cities and points north and west should be mostly dry today.

01:40In fact, we'll see decreasing clouds and decreasing dew points,

01:43and much more comfortable air moving in.

01:45But there is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5 for Austin, Rochester kind of on the edge of that,

01:50La Crosse, and then into Wisconsin and Iowa for some severe storms today.

01:54The main threat is going to be some high wind gusts here.

01:57Numerous models here producing over 60 mile an hour wind gusts

02:00with some of those storms in the southeastern corner of the state,

02:03into Wisconsin, especially in Iowa.

02:06But those dew points, those were in the low to mid-70s all weekend, of course,

02:09created that heat index already falling now into the 60s

02:12and will continue to fall behind that front through the day.

02:14So by this evening, dew points in the 50s.

02:17You can go for a walk or a bike ride this evening, and it'll feel comfortable.

02:2080 degrees, but with much lower humidity.

02:2370s mostly tomorrow for highs, close to 80 degrees,

02:26but with those more comfortable dew points in the 50s out there.

02:30So the heat is gone for now for us.

02:32It's the East Coast turn.

02:33It's going to kind of park itself there for several days, it looks like.

02:36But that front is not going to move real far south.

02:39That front that's coming through today drifts to Nebraska, Iowa,

02:42but then comes back north by Wednesday.

02:45And that's going to be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms,

02:48but not so much severe weather, but potential for some very heavy rain.

02:51We're going to have a low-level jet stream developing Wednesday.

02:54Those winds at 4,000 feet up, as high as 50 miles an hour.

02:58And a couple little upper-level disturbances.

03:00The heat dome is going to be to our east.

03:02So we're going to see the upper-level flow south to east to northeast,

03:06and that's going to bring little ripples across the middle of the atmosphere

03:09that will help tap into that moisture and that frontal boundary

03:12to produce waves of showers and thunderstorms already early Wednesday,

03:16and then into Wednesday night and Thursday,

03:18multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms coming through

03:21that could really add up here to some significant rainfall totals.

03:25We're talking about one to three inches of widespread rainfall

03:28for the southern half of the state.

03:30There will be locally higher amounts.

03:32I think we'll probably see some four or five-inch amounts.

03:34This will be similar to what we had a couple weeks ago,

03:36just drenching the southern part of the state with, again,

03:39not so much severe weather, but waves of showers and thunderstorms

03:42that are going to add up to a lot of rainfall.

03:44And then heading into the weekend, we're still in this kind of zonal flow

03:46where there's going to be several little upper-level disturbances moving through

03:50that we'll have to watch for some occasional shower and thunderstorm development.

03:53No washouts, though, any one day,

03:56but there will be some chances of storms Saturday,

03:58mostly across northern Minnesota,

03:59and then Sunday, kind of a statewide chance.

04:02But middle of the day, warm and muggy, late-day thunderstorms develop,

04:06so it looks like mainly Saturday night, and then again Sunday evening,

04:09best chances for probably the Twin Cities area.

04:1281 today, dropping humidity,

04:15those showers redeveloping to our south and southeast.

04:18Tomorrow should be mostly dry.

04:19There will still be some showers in far southern Minnesota lingering.

04:23But Wednesday is when we'll see the next round of really significant weather develop.

04:26Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday, kind of on and off,

04:29adding up to, again, maybe up to a few inches of rainfall.

04:32Friday and Saturday, looking mostly dry.

04:34Again, Saturday, the thunder chance is mostly north.

04:37But then Saturday night, kind of statewide chance of some thunderstorms.

04:40And then again, late in the day on Sunday.

04:42It's also going to be pretty warm and humid again this weekend.

04:44Not quite 90s, but dew points back into the 60s.

04:48Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will get a little uncomfortable at times,

04:51but more typical here for the end of June.

04:59We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:01We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:02We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:03We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:04We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:05We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:06We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:07We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:08We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:09We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:10We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:11We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:12We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:13We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:14We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:15We'll see you in the next round of June.

05:16We'll see you in the next round of June.

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