Rain continues Friday before storm chances bubble up Saturday and beyond

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Watch Rain continues Friday before storm chances bubble up Saturday and beyond - Bring Me The News on Dailymotion

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00:00Well, rainfall delivered across parts of central and especially west central Minnesota.

00:04Those showers will taper off through the day today.

00:06Tomorrow is mostly dry, but then we're still in an active pattern with warmer temperatures though next week.

00:21So the heaviest rain really started in northeastern South Dakota.

00:25Five inches of rain there and then continuing into west central Minnesota

00:28and then kind of into the south metro.

00:30This is where we saw two to four plus inches of rain.

00:32Heaviest total so far coming in.

00:35Clara City here in the eastern part of Chippewa County, 6.86 inches of rain.

00:39Wilmer area over four inches.

00:41So this was really kind of the bullseye,

00:43which again was sort of an extension of heavy rain that set up into eastern South Dakota.

00:47Most metro amounts about one to two inches.

00:49Still substantial, but not on the level of what we saw off to the west.

00:53And we still have this warm frontal boundary kind of lingering in the area.

00:57And this is going to be the focus for more weather heading into the second half of the weekend.

01:02So temperatures are definitely noticeably warmer south of that front.

01:05More humid too.

01:06Pretty cool.

01:07Feels more like early May or early October here in the Minnesota side of that front for the most part.

01:14So again, showers mostly tapering off.

01:15Central Minnesota will see more numerous showers though here through much of the day.

01:19And still we will see some spotty showers and even a thunderstorm pop up in the Twin Cities.

01:23And the high resolution rapid refresh model, most aggressive with keeping some showers around tomorrow.

01:29European model much less so.

01:31So there's still a slight chance of a shower or a thunderstorm Saturday.

01:34But for the most part, the day will be dry for most of us.

01:39If that makes any sense.

01:40Before things get more active again.

01:42Already Saturday night.

01:43We will see some peaks of sun too, especially southern Minnesota tomorrow afternoon.

01:47And then again on Sunday.

01:48And that will help to push the temperatures up Sunday.

01:49That frontal boundary will lift north along with a little bit more sunshine.

01:53So we should be pushing 80 by Sunday afternoon.

01:56But definitely cool today.

01:5750s where we'll see those more numerous showers across central Minnesota up the North Shore.

02:0160s in the Twin Cities.

02:02Still low 80s along the Minnesota-Iowa border.

02:04And then tomorrow should get in on the 70s in the Twin Cities.

02:06Especially if we can get those afternoon peaks of sunshine.

02:09Still low 80s though near the Minnesota-Iowa border.

02:12And then Sunday, finally that warmth creeps a little bit further north.

02:15Low 80s for southern Minnesota with 70s to the north.

02:18But that will help to fuel potentially more thunderstorms also late in the day on Sunday.

02:22So the next disturbance, upper-level disturbance, already comes through.

02:25A little short wave that will touch off thunderstorms tomorrow night.

02:28And then again Monday, probably Tuesday night, early Wednesday as well.

02:33Again, we're going to have these very frequent minor upper-level disturbances.

02:37But it's enough to generate instability to create at least some spotty thunderstorms.

02:40But we're not looking at probably events similar to last night where we're going to see these

02:44one to four-inch rainfall amounts.

02:47So tomorrow night, showers and thunderstorms develop late in the night, early morning.

02:51And then again, some isolated or spotty storms popping up Sunday afternoon as we heat things up.

02:56And then Monday, we're looking at the potential for some severe weather late in the day.

03:00Some isolated activity midday.

03:02But then a line of storms develops, it looks like, in western Minnesota Monday evening.

03:06And then those will sweep through Monday evening into Monday overnight.

03:09Already, the Storm Prediction Center issuing a slight risk for the extended period here,

03:14the day four period for southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

03:18We will have quite a bit of instability as we get on that warmer side of that frontal boundary.

03:23Temperatures in the 80s.

03:24Dew points will be higher in the 60s.

03:26And that means a lot more instability.

03:27Convective available potential energy values getting definitely high enough for severe storms to organize.

03:34So this is the lightning forecast from the European model.

03:375 p.m. Monday, that line of storms developing, sweeping through in the evening hours,

03:41probably clearing the metro by 9, 10 p.m.

03:43But we will have to watch for damaging wind gusts and potentially some large hail.

03:47So the difference, we talked about this yesterday, from next week to the week we're coming out of,

03:52is instead of cool and wet, it'll be warm and wet at least.

03:55So above normal temperatures for the most part, the early and end part of the week.

04:00Wednesday will be one kind of cooler day behind that cool front upper 70s though still.

04:04So overall, much warmer temperatures.

04:07We get more into this summertime convective scenario where we see late day showers and storms pop up

04:12with a little midday sunshine and warmer temperatures instead of these just one or two day straight periods of clouds

04:19and occasional showers moving through, keeping those temperatures down.

04:23But yeah, only 64 today, 73 tomorrow.

04:27Again, mostly dry, but can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

04:30Sunday though is a better chance, especially Saturday night and then late Sunday.

04:34And then late in the day, Monday, Tuesday, we could see some isolated late day storms too.

04:38And then Wednesday, cooler air moves in, might have a lingering instability to prove showers,

04:42especially in far southern Minnesota.

04:44But we look to be getting into a drier pattern as well as warm by the end of the week.

04:49Next week, things stabilize a bit more with potentially several days of drier weather and more sunshine.

04:56So just hang on a little longer.

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