Very humid air moves in as rounds of storms threaten Minnesota this week

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00:00Well, we're going to see the humidity really increase tonight into tomorrow.

00:03That's going to lead to more storms in unsettled middle of the week

00:05and steamy conditions right through the weekend.

00:18So we're going to see some smoke move into the area from a different direction.

00:22It's Canadian wildfire smoke, but it's going to be coming in from southern Wisconsin

00:25because high pressure over Lake Superior, air moves clockwise,

00:30and that's been pushing that Canadian smoke the long way around.

00:33So probably going to see at least some hazy skies, if not some diminished air quality,

00:36heading into the afternoon and evening hours.

00:38And that combined with the high pressure in the south too,

00:41all pushing air straight from the Gulf of Mexico into the northern plains and upper Midwest.

00:47So we're going to see that humid, steamy air around for quite a while.

00:51Dew points stay mostly in the 60s, not so bad.

00:53But tomorrow, mid-70s dew points, some models have 80-degree dew points

00:57in southern Minnesota tomorrow and Wednesday.

00:59That's about as humid as it gets around here.

01:01So some very tropical amounts of moisture.

01:03We'll see a brief reprieve Thursday, but steamy air overall back for the weekend too.

01:09And we're going to be on the edge of this heat dome that's kind of bouncing around

01:11in the central and eastern part of the country.

01:14And being on the edge of it, we talked about it last week,

01:16we're going to see every little disturbance move through.

01:18That's denoted by all these little Xs we call those vorticity.

01:21We look at aloft, little spins aloft shows us that there's pockets of cool air,

01:26some of those brief disturbances, kind of one every 12 hours apart,

01:29riding the edge of the heat with ample humidity.

01:32And it's the time of year where we get a lot of these nighttime thunderstorms.

01:35So these are the winds and temperatures at about 4,000 feet above the ground.

01:39They accelerate at night because as the lower atmosphere cools, there's less friction.

01:45It's not tied to the winds aloft.

01:46So the winds accelerate and that pushes moisture north and creates clusters of storms kind of each night,

01:52probably over the next few nights here in the plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin.

01:56So this could be some big rainmakers too here if we get repeatedly hit in the same area.

02:00So it looks like we'll see more storms develop in northwestern and northern Minnesota tonight into tomorrow morning.

02:05And then later in the day tomorrow, more storms develop somewhere central or northern Minnesota

02:09that will then kind of spread across southern Minnesota too.

02:12But every different computer model has a different scenario.

02:15This is a notoriously difficult pattern to forecast.

02:19The models don't do well with it.

02:20And past 12 to 24 hours, timing it out can be hard.

02:23But there is a risk of some severe weather, marginal risk today into tonight.

02:27Tomorrow, though, as storms develop later in the day, better chance that we could see some stronger storms.

02:30So Twin Cities, Brainerd, over towards Fargo included in the slight risk, level 2 out of 5.

02:36And then the Twin Cities into western Wisconsin Wednesday into Wednesday night.

02:39This is a slow-moving cool front that will be moving across the state tomorrow into Wednesday, clearing us Thursday.

02:45Before it moves back north again.

02:47And the biggest threat for severe storms is going to be wind gusts.

02:50So not necessarily pay attention to where.

02:52This is just one model scenario.

02:54But somewhere in Minnesota, we could see this same scenario play out where we get kind of a bow echo situation like we had this morning

03:00that actually is able to maintain itself and hold together.

03:03So wind gusts and large hail primarily.

03:05But also a lot of rain.

03:06This is the average of the models, 2 to 3, even 4 inches across central Minnesota.

03:10But when we look at the individual models and kind of can see some hints of potential heavier rainfall,

03:15these are some 5, 6, 7-inch rainfall amounts through Thursday somewhere potentially in central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

03:21So a lot of rain, this humidity, this active unsettled pattern could lead to some pretty substantial rainfall totals

03:28if the same areas keep getting hit here.

03:31So that's what we'll be watching for.

03:32But yeah, just plan on a thunderstorm really at any moment over the next few days.

03:36It's that kind of an unsettled scenario.

03:38Near 80 today.

03:40Steamy, though, tomorrow and Wednesday close to 90.

03:43The one thing that could hurt temperature forecasts is if we get more of these early morning storms that keep going.

03:48And then that can keep us cloudy the first half of the day.

03:51And that might knock down temperature.

03:52So that's something to watch for.

03:53But if they're mainly evening and overnight storms, it's going to be steamy by day

03:57with that heat index close to 95 to 100 tomorrow and Wednesday afternoons.

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