You won't need to water your lawn or gardens for the foreseeable future...
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00:00Well, we have the potential for heavy rainfall developing later today into tonight and Friday
00:03morning. More than three or four inches of rain could fall in parts of central and southern
00:07Minnesota, and we get only one dry day before more active weather.
00:21So our June theme so far, smoke and rain. Another air quality alert for central and southern
00:26Minnesota expected to be in the unhealthy for sensitive group category, which is the orange
00:31level. Already seeing that across southern Minnesota sensors, including all of the Twin
00:35Cities through the day today. We also have that slight risk of excessive rainfall. Now,
00:40this has shifted a little farther north than yesterday's slight risk. It still includes
00:45the Twin Cities, but we may be looking at the bullseye in central Minnesota. That frontal
00:49boundary we've been talking about the last couple of days shifted a little further south
00:53overnight, as they typically do with the overnight activity into Iowa. But that's going to lift a
00:58little further north again through the day today with daytime heating. So expecting that boundary
01:02by this afternoon to be really into far southern Minnesota, south of the boundary again, back
01:07in the 80s and 90s, north of it, we're going to be cooler and in the 70s. But the moisture
01:12source further south to dew points in the 60s across southern Minnesota and Iowa by the time
01:18we head into the afternoon. That's why the severe threat is going to stay to our south. But
01:22the heavy rainfall threat, that will be the focus across central Minnesota. And as we've
01:26been talking about, we get that low level jet stream to push that moisture into the atmosphere
01:30above us. So it doesn't feel real humid out there, but that's how we get that moisture
01:34and that rainfall to really produce here across central Minnesota. But you can see that energy
01:38staying south. So again, the marginal risk of severe weather level one out of five south
01:42of the Twin Cities with really the more significant threat back into South Dakota and Nebraska.
01:47So showers and thunderstorms really fill in this afternoon after some ongoing spotty
01:52activity. And then through the night tonight, this is 3am heavy showers and thunderstorms
01:56training over central Minnesota, and then still lingering showers into the morning, maybe
02:00even afternoon tomorrow. Now the forecast when we look at the average of the models has the
02:06Twin Cities on the southern end of the heavy rainfall with potentially Alexandria to Brainerd
02:11St. Cloud being in the heaviest rainfall of two, three inches on average. But there will be
02:16some locally higher amounts and the high resolution rapid refresh model. The first model to update
02:21has shown some shifts. The Twin Cities was on that heavier band, but now we've started to
02:26see it shift a little bit here from the previous run, which was right over us. So we have to
02:31watch for some of these northward shifts through the day today. Saturday still looks mostly dry.
02:35Can't rule out an isolated shower, but it's going to be cool. Mostly in the 60s and 70s. Sunday
02:40closer to 80, but we're already going to see the next chance of thunder Saturday night. So may not
02:46even get a full 24 hours of dry weather before we head into yet another active pattern. It will be
02:51warmer next week, low 80s. That's slightly above normal, but we really have the chance of thunder
02:56somewhere in the state every single day, Sunday into the middle of next week, at least. We're going
03:02to see these little upper level disturbances. They're denoted by these yellow and red blobs. They come
03:06through quickly, one every 12 to 24 hours. They're difficult to track the timing of them
03:12until we get within a 48-hour range, but it does look as though late Saturday night into early
03:16Sunday, showers and thunderstorms. Then later in the day, storms develop again. So during the day
03:21Sunday, I think it will be dry for the most part in the afternoon, just isolated thunder. But Saturday
03:26night, Sunday night look a day on Tuesday, more than thunderstorms. So yeah, at least you don't have to
03:34water the garden or lawn. It looks like we're going to have frequent rainfall and some of it heavy,
03:39especially the stuff coming tonight. Just 71 for high today. No surprise with the clouds and
03:44afternoon showers and storms filling in into tonight and tomorrow morning. Only 70 tomorrow.
03:49Saturday, again, the one dry day in the entire seven-day period. And again, we might still see an
03:55isolated shower, but the more likely scenario is Saturday night into Sunday morning. And then on and off,
04:00shower and thunderstorm chances into next week, but with at least warmer temperatures,
04:05we'll feel more summer-like with the low 80s.