00:00Well, we had some severe storms in western Minnesota last night.
00:02Tonight is northern Minnesota's turn.
00:04Could see tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and then it's extreme heat for the weekend.
00:19So several damaging wind gusts reports from storms that originated in North Dakota
00:23and continue to produce severe gusts all the way to Sauk Center, 71 to 66 mile per hour winds there.
00:30And, of course, one rogue cell yesterday evening produced some large hail in western Wisconsin,
00:34golf ball-sized hail near Star Prairie.
00:37So it could be a very active night tonight.
00:39In fact, there's an increased risk of severe storms tonight.
00:42But getting steamy during the day, well into the 80s, even 90s already in southwestern Minnesota.
00:46The one thing you're really going to notice today, by the afternoon and evening,
00:49dew points are going to be really high, our highest yet this season, into the low to mid-70s.
00:53And that very humid air will help to spawn some storms across northern Minnesota tonight
00:58and push our heat indices this weekend into the triple digits across southern Minnesota.
01:03So we had one cluster of storms develop overnight.
01:05That's moving on.
01:06The next little disturbance is moving across North Dakota.
01:09That'll be the focus for storms to fire up here as we head into late afternoon and evening hours there.
01:14And then those storms will track east across northern Minnesota tonight.
01:17We've got quite the low-level jet that will be developing tonight.
01:20We talk about these a lot.
01:20They produce our nighttime thunderstorms quite often, 4,000 feet above the ground.
01:25Winds could be roaring at over 70 miles an hour, just 4,000 feet above our heads.
01:31And that is what will help to spawn some storms with heavy rainfall and risk of severe storms.
01:36We have an enhanced risk of severe weather from Fargo through Brainerd-Hibbing, Duluth.
01:41And the main threat we're looking for is large hail damaging wind gusts, but also a tornado threat initially across North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.
01:50Those first cells that develop will probably be discrete supercells that'll be rotating and could produce some tornadoes.
01:56And then they'll merge into probably a couple of bow echoes that'll produce damaging winds and large hail right through Duluth in the early morning hours tomorrow.
02:03One thing we're dealing with to figure out where those storms pop up, though, is a cap.
02:07Warm air aloft, this is about 9,000 feet above the ground because this air mass at that level is originating from the desert southwest.
02:14So it's a dry, warm air that moves in.
02:16And it means storms just can't bubble up and develop here in southern Minnesota.
02:19We'll have high parameters, significant tornado parameter, very high, but too warm aloft.
02:23So the edge of the cap is where those storms will develop.
02:26And to give you kind of an idea, we use these forecast soundings.
02:29They're kind of complicated to look at, but the biggest thing is we've got a strong cap higher up in the atmosphere in southern Minnesota.
02:34But northern Minnesota, that cap is much weaker and lower.
02:38So it's going to be easier for storms to pop through that on the edge of that cap.
02:43Wind gusts, as I mentioned, are going to be a concern.
02:44You can kind of see that pattern of those potential bow echoes producing severe wind gusts across northern Minnesota tonight.
02:50Good news is for Grandma's Marathon, should be out of here by early tomorrow morning.
02:54But storms popping up 10 p.m. or so.
02:56And then storms rolling through during the night tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow.
03:01Here's 3 a.m., maybe a bow echo moving through Duluth.
03:03So heads up, there's going to be a lot of things set up for the marathon.
03:08Weight them down here.
03:09But again, it should be gone by sunrise, it looks like.
03:12Then we're on to heat.
03:13Extreme heat warnings here for central and southern Minnesota.
03:16Heat advisories to the north and southeast.
03:19The only place that really won't see it, northwestern Minnesota and the north shore.
03:23But look at these temperatures tomorrow.
03:25Into the 90s, triple digits possible out on the Buffalo Ridge tomorrow, I think.
03:29And when you factor in these dew points in the 70s, it's going to feel like 100 to 105 degrees, maybe even higher.
03:36You can see that effect of Lake Superior, though.
03:38Sunday, temperatures again in the 90s.
03:40And that's when probably Duluth and the north shore will get in on a little bit more of that heat as we turn that wind more southwesterly.
03:46So a couple of very hot days, but it's not going to be lasting past Sunday.
03:50We're going to see some storms already Sunday evening to the northwest.
03:53And then kind of waves of showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the week next week.
03:56It's going to be kind of a crummy midweek, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday.
04:00Rain and thunderstorms each day, adding up to another one to four inches of additional rainfall into next week.
04:06Hopefully we can push it out of here in time for next weekend.
04:09It's Pride weekend, and every weekend in the summer is precious around here, so always looking for some idyllic weather.
04:1787 today.
04:18Overnight thunderstorms across northern Minnesota.
04:21We should stay dry here in the southern part of the state, I think.
04:24There is a chance that one of those bow echoes could dive south, so don't be completely surprised if we get a late night rumble of thunder.
04:31But again, it's looking more and more like that'll stay north.
04:34Mid-90s, both Saturday and Sunday, but it will feel like 103 or so.
04:38So dress for that.
04:40Air conditioning, get into a pool or a lake.
04:43Cooler areas come in Monday with some storms, potential severe risk late Sunday and Monday.
04:48And then just sort of dreary and much cooler heading into the middle of next week.
