Minnesota weather: Rain, a cooldown, then summer surges back

Bring Me The News

Sven has the weekend forecast and a look ahead to the return of heat next week.

Transcript

00:00Well, we have unsettled weather today into the weekend. No one day is going to be a washout,

00:04but there will be showers, even a couple thunderstorms around, and then things are heating up next week.

00:21So we picked up some rainfall across a swath of central Minnesota up the North Shore,

00:25anywhere from a quarter to as much as a half inch for some of those areas,

00:28largely missing the Twin Cities, but we'll all get a turn at some rain at some point here over the next few days.

00:34I know there's graduation parties, a lot of things going on this time of year on the weekends.

00:38All these little X's pointed out yesterday, these are all minor little upper level disturbances,

00:41essentially cool fronts aloft that creates some instability.

00:45First one, move through this morning for, again, that central part of the state,

00:49but you can see those lined up back to the west coming through here in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

00:55So spotty showers, there are a couple thunderstorms popping up again this afternoon, especially to the west,

00:59and they will be few and far between.

01:02And then tomorrow, we're going to see a chance of some showers and thunderstorms popping up,

01:06spotty ones in the afternoon.

01:08Most models keep it to a minimum.

01:09The European model, the most aggressive, but even that, six hundredths of an inch of rain in the afternoon.

01:14But it looks like the next best chance is with a cold front tomorrow night into early Sunday morning,

01:18so midnight to 5 a.m. tomorrow night, and then again, Sunday and Monday afternoon,

01:24some spotty hit-and-miss stuff popping up.

01:26So no washouts, as I mentioned, but, you know, have some backup plans handy.

01:31If you get hit by a shower that pops up, it could last for 20 minutes to an hour,

01:35and then you'll be back into some sunshine, potentially.

01:37But total rainfall is going to be heaviest for the northern part of the state.

01:40That's where it's most likely to rain as well.

01:43And then those totals drop off to the south, and that's good news.

01:45Those areas need the rain the most.

01:46A little cooler today, upper 60s to low 70s because of the clouds and a few of those showers,

01:51but warmer, drier, brighter in northwestern Minnesota, close to 80.

01:55And then tomorrow, similar temperatures, 70s pretty much statewide,

01:58except for, of course, right next to the Big Lake.

02:01Now, Sunday behind that cool front tomorrow night, it will be cooler.

02:04Still low to mid-70s in southern Minnesota,

02:06but just around 60 in northwestern Minnesota for a high Sunday afternoon.

02:09That is cool.

02:11Another thing northern Minnesota is dealing with, though, is wildfire smoke.

02:14It has slipped back in.

02:15We have an air quality alert for the basically northern third of the state today.

02:19Air quality sensors have dropped into the unhealthy for sensitive groups

02:22and even unhealthy for everybody up along the international border.

02:26Those fires still going.

02:27You can see that smoke plume on satellite.

02:29It's that slightly dirtier wisp of white here moving in.

02:33And these are the clouds to the south.

02:34They're brighter white when we see them from space here in those pictures.

02:38So that upper-level low, cool-air loft settles in for Sunday, Monday.

02:42In fact, Monday may not get out of the 60s, even in southern Minnesota.

02:45But then upper-level ridge builds back in of high pressure.

02:48That means more sun, hotter temperatures.

02:50We're looking at temperatures that are going to be in the 80s by Wednesday.

02:53So cooler air, essentially, Sunday, Monday, as we talked about.

02:57But then anomalously warm air moving in here for Wednesday into next weekend.

03:02It's also looking more humid late next week,

03:04which means that we could see some thunderstorms with those warm temperatures also.

03:08So today through Tuesday, below-normal temperatures for the whole central U.S.

03:11is the result of that cool front and upper-level low.

03:14But as that upper-level ridge builds in, we see that heat come in.

03:17We're looking above-normal temperatures late next week into next weekend.

03:21And that means 80s to maybe near 90 this time of year.

03:24So by Thursday is a sample.

03:26Mid-80s, Twin Cities, but upper 80s, maybe some 90-degree readings in western Minnesota.

03:31And fairly similar temperatures, for the most part, into next weekend and early the following week.

03:36This is the European model.

03:38Most of the models have us hitting 90 at some point in the next 10 days.

03:42They just differ which day that might happen.

03:44So moral of the story, cooler, unsettled the next few days, but then we get into a hotter pattern.

03:49But not necessarily completely dry.

03:52With dew points in the 60s to near 70 late next week, that does mean we could see some thunderstorms.

03:57But very difficult to time that out at this point.

04:0072 today.

04:01Some showers this morning.

04:02And then again, an isolated shower, thunderstorm popping up in the afternoon.

04:05Similar scenario tomorrow.

04:07I think dry for the morning.

04:09One or two showers or a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

04:11And then Sunday, mostly dry during the day.

04:14Just an isolated shower, primarily in the northern half of the state Sunday.

04:18A better chance for the weekend does come tomorrow night for the steadier, more widespread chance of rain.

04:23But things are drying out, brightening up by Tuesday into the middle of next week.

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