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Report
10 Day trend – The dry April continues but will it warm up?
Met Office
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14/10/2024
Not much rain is expected in the next week or so with high pressure continuing to dominate the UK weather. There are signs that it could finally warm up a bit next week and that the frosty mornings might go away too. Alex Deakin takes a look.
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00:00
Hello. Welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend.
00:03
April so far has been on the chilly side
00:06
and also really quite dry.
00:08
And both of those trends will continue,
00:10
at least for the next few days and nights,
00:12
with morning frosts a big feature of the weather
00:15
into the weekend.
00:16
However, there are some signs it might get a little warmer
00:19
through next week.
00:21
With dry weather, that's usually
00:23
associated with high pressure.
00:24
And one is sitting right across the UK at the moment.
00:28
It does amble away steadily over the next couple of days.
00:31
It remains controlling our weather.
00:33
But as it shifts away, it does allow these weather fronts
00:36
just to trickle up towards the northwest of Scotland,
00:39
more particularly this one by Sunday.
00:41
Now, there's a bit of uncertainty
00:43
about the exact position of this weather front, which
00:45
I can show you by showing you the spaghetti plot.
00:48
That's where we run the computer model several times.
00:50
And each of the computer model runs
00:52
then plots the position of that weather front.
00:54
It's useful for picking out the uncertainty in the position.
00:57
And you can see that weather fronts could be across much
01:00
of Scotland and Northern Ireland on Sunday.
01:02
But its most likely position is just to the far northwest.
01:06
But there will be some rain across the northwest,
01:09
it looks like, on Sunday.
01:10
It could be across just the Outer Hebrides.
01:12
But also, it could be further south
01:13
through much of Northern Ireland and into parts
01:16
of central Scotland.
01:17
So that's some uncertainty for the weekend.
01:19
But for the vast majority through the rest
01:22
of this week and the weekend, the weather's
01:23
dry and bright by day.
01:25
But staying on the chilly side, particularly cold at night
01:28
with morning frosts continue to be in place through the weekend
01:33
and probably beyond as well.
01:34
Because even into the early part of next week,
01:36
high pressure is still nearby.
01:37
There's that weather front.
01:38
I say still a lot of uncertainty by the time
01:40
we get to the early part of next week about the position of it.
01:43
But it's being affected either side by high pressure.
01:46
So it's kind of getting wrung out, if you like.
01:48
So the weather fronts will be weakening all the time.
01:52
And then the high pressure that dominates,
01:54
well, that's the big question as we go through next week.
01:57
But certainly, high pressure is expected
01:59
to be in control of our weather, as this chart shows
02:02
the probabilistic pressure trend.
02:04
An awful lot of red on there, red
02:07
indicating that high pressure.
02:08
There are the dates going forward.
02:10
And as I said, a lot of red, high pressure
02:12
dominating through next week.
02:14
But the shape and position of that high
02:17
is crucial for dictating the kind of flow we get
02:21
and therefore the kind of temperatures we could see.
02:24
And there's a bit more uncertainty
02:25
about that, as is shown here.
02:27
This is the zonal trend about whether we'll
02:29
see an easterly or a westerly flow across the UK.
02:33
And you can see not as strong a signal, particularly
02:35
through the middle part of next week.
02:36
The colour's not as strong.
02:38
It becomes much more wishy-washy about whether we'll
02:40
see more of an easterly flow or a westerly flow.
02:43
So that's the big uncertainty about next week.
02:45
But we are pretty confident that high pressure
02:47
will continue to bring a lot of dry weather.
02:50
And also, there are signs from most of the computer models
02:53
that it will slowly start to get a little bit warmer.
02:56
This is the meteorogram for Manchester.
02:58
Again, the European model plotting the temperature
03:01
trend.
03:02
The smaller the disk or the nodule,
03:05
the greater the certainty.
03:06
So at the moment, the next few days,
03:09
that red line there is the average.
03:10
You can see that temperature's generally just below average.
03:13
But there is a trend there to see a rise in temperatures
03:15
as we go through, particularly towards the end of next week.
03:18
But by then, of course, there's much more uncertainty.
03:21
So the blobs are bigger.
03:22
You can see that trend also in the nighttime temperatures
03:25
as well.
03:25
At the moment, well below the average line.
03:28
But that trend upwards, albeit with increasing uncertainty
03:32
as we go through next week.
03:33
So the things you know about next week,
03:35
high pressure is most likely to be dominating, which will,
03:38
again, continue the dry theme.
03:40
And it has been a very dry spring so far.
03:42
And probably, things finally at least turning a little bit
03:45
warmer with maybe less of a nighttime frost risk,
03:49
especially by the end of next week.
03:51
Keep up to date with the very latest from the Met Office
03:54
by following us on social media.
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