10 Day trend – high pressure turns up, will it stay? 10/07/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

High pressure will bring more widely settled weather this weekend but how long will it stick around for? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. The weather at the moment is somewhat

00:05messy, a lot of cloud cover across the UK, outbreaks of rain, showers, thunderstorms

00:10in northern Britain, sunny spells in southern UK. Very different weather depending on where

00:15you are, but it does sort itself out over the next few days. Any thundery showers tend

00:20to ease heading into the weekend, high pressure builds and for most it's looking fine. Does

00:26that continue into next week? In a word, no. It looks like we'll revert to very similar

00:32weather patterns that we've got at the moment for the middle of next week and that means

00:37again a return to the messiness, a return to rain or showers or thunderstorms in the

00:42north, sunny spells in the south and warm, humid conditions for virtually all of us.

00:49The humid air at the moment of course is being brought about by an Atlantic air flow, that

00:54Atlantic air producing a lot of cloud cover, thick low cloud for western areas. Any sunny

01:00spells confined to the south and the north east where temperatures rise on Thursday,

01:06mid-twenties or even higher and that humidity and the rising temperatures sparking some

01:12thundery downpours, especially central, southern, eastern Scotland, north east England where

01:17these showers with a lack of wind will be slow moving. So hit or miss, yes, but if you

01:21get caught in one, well a serious amount of rainfall, risk of disruption. Yellow warning

01:26for thunderstorms in force. Friday's a similar picture, sunny spells but yeah a lot of cloud

01:33coming in from the Atlantic and showers developing as temperatures rise through the day. Again

01:38it's eastern areas where we're likely to see the heaviest downpours, risk of thunder and

01:43lightning and so on, but these showers perhaps not quite as fierce as Thursday's. Further

01:48west the weather is settling down, most places dry if rather cloudy because high pressure

01:53building in, that high pressure ridging all the way from the Azores helping to bring fine

01:58weather for the weekend and it's because the jet stream to the west of us starts to become

02:03more amplified because of that low pressure and it starts to rise to the north of us for

02:08the weekend. But you can see it just there dipping to the south across eastern parts

02:13of Britain and so on Saturday it's not going to be glorious sunshine everywhere, there

02:18will be a lot of cloud cover again and that cloud giving one or two showers across eastern

02:22parts of the UK, mostly light. But eastern areas will keep a lot of cloud cover through

02:28Saturday and temperatures will be lower. Best of any sunny spells, southwestern areas, temperatures

02:34into the mid-twenties. Similar on Sunday, lots of cloud cover but some sun coming through

02:41and temperatures rising, low to mid-twenties in many places, feeling warm away from the

02:46North Sea coast. One or two showers developing but nothing particularly heavy or prolonged.

02:51Most places seeing a fine weekend. So, does it continue into next week? Well, not really.

02:58It does continue into Monday which of course is St. Swithin's Day and the old proverb goes

03:03if St. Swithin's Day be fair, for forty days twill rain nay mare. And it doesn't even look

03:10this year like it will be true for one or two days because there's an increased chance

03:16from Tuesday onwards that that high pressure will be nibbled away by weather systems to

03:21the west. And this is how the middle of next week is looking. Low pressure likely to be

03:27around to the northwest of the UK, very slow moving and that low pressure starting to turn

03:35things more unsettled once again. If that looks similar, well you only have to look

03:39at the weather at the time of recording to see just the same sort of pattern. Low pressure

03:45in almost exactly the same place and at the time of recording that is bringing a lot of

03:50cloud cover to the UK. Weather fronts across northern areas, sunny spells in the south,

03:55rain or showers across northern Britain. So, if you want to know what the weather's doing

03:59this time next week, you just have to look at what the weather's doing over the next

04:03couple of days. Northern Britain, a lot of cloud, areas of rain or showers and high humidities

04:10setting off thunderstorms, especially in the north but not exclusively. I just want to

04:15show you two graphs here. This one is for central Scotland, this one's for southern

04:19England and it's a rainfall trend essentially. You can see the rainfall essentially trends

04:24to zero through the weekend and into the start of next week. But by Tuesday in parts of the

04:29north, a trend for higher rainfall amounts and that increases through the middle part

04:34of next week. The numbers there in the north, bigger than the numbers on the graph for the

04:39south. Similar trend though with an increased chance of rain or showers across southern

04:43areas from the middle of next week. However, a lot of uncertainty, a lot of spread here

04:48because this signal is the result of the weather being showery, so hit and miss downpours rather

04:54than long spells of rain. And of course with showers, it's an unreliable amount of rainfall.

05:00Some areas will see plenty, some areas won't see much at all. So, an increased chance later

05:05next week of rain or showers mainly in the north but some of those showers affecting

05:11southern parts of Britain. And it will stay warm or humid. Temperatures will stay above

05:16average through next week from the north to the south. It's just that the north will see

05:20the lion's share of outbreaks of rain, showers, thunderstorms, whereas the south will see

05:25the best of any sunny spells and temperatures into the mid-twenties. In other words, after

05:31an interlude of high pressure this weekend, we go back to the kind of messy weather we've

05:35seen at the moment. And of course, details are always going to be tricky to get right

05:41at this range, particularly when the weather is that messy. So, the best way to stay up

05:45to date is by following us on social media. Bye-bye.

10 Day trend – high pressure turns up, will it stay? 10/07/19

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