Ten Day Trend - Spring sunshine on the way but how warm will it get? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

A shift in the jet stream will allow the pressure pattern to change this weekend. High pressure will bring drier and sunnier weather that could last most of next week and it should get a bit warmer, but just how warm? Alex Deakin has the latest.

Transcript

00:00Hello, welcome to the Met Office

00:0110-day trend.

00:03We're going to see some big changes

00:04with the weather over the next 10

00:06days.

00:07Good news if you don't like the

00:08rain.

00:09This is a fairly typical scene on

00:11Wednesday, but the change isn't

00:13happening immediately.

00:13So for the next few days, we can

00:15expect more showers and the

00:17weather to remain on the cool side.

00:19But then, especially through

00:21the weekend, we are expecting

00:22things to turn a lot drier,

00:24sunnier, and

00:26eventually things warming up a

00:28little bit. We're not promising

00:29much heat at this stage, just

00:30temperatures getting back closer

00:32to or a bit above average

00:34as we go through next week.

00:35But it will be significant because

00:36it has been on the chilly side

00:38for a while now.

00:40What's going on?

00:41Well, simply, we're shifting

00:42pressure patterns, low pressure

00:43dominating through Wednesday.

00:45Fast forward to Monday and

00:47it's high pressure sitting across

00:49the UK.

00:50Show you those again.

00:51Low pressure on Wednesday.

00:52Weather front's bringing rain

00:53isobars close together.

00:55It's blustery, it's gusty, and

00:57it's cool by the time we get to

00:58Monday. High pressure, not as

01:00many isobars.

01:01The winds will be lighter, high

01:02pressure bringing dry weather and

01:04probably a fair bit of sunshine

01:06too.

01:07That's next week.

01:09Before then, we've still got low

01:10pressure dominating on Thursday,

01:12bringing cool and showery

01:13conditions across the East Coast,

01:15particularly across Northern

01:16England early on.

01:17But it should dry up a little bit

01:19here. Heavy showers from Northern

01:20Ireland through Wales, the

01:21Midlands, across Southern England

01:23too. Some sunny spells,

01:25but no great warmth.

01:27We might get into the teens across

01:29the South. Temperatures again

01:30across much of Scotland, despite

01:31some dry and bright weather, only

01:33nine or 10 Celsius.

01:34So it's still on the cool side.

01:37The low pressure does ebb away

01:38during Thursday, but it's not

01:40immediately replaced by that

01:41high. We've got another low to

01:43contend with drifting across the

01:44South during Friday night.

01:46That could bring some heavy rain.

01:48Notice it's not a particularly

01:49intense low.

01:50There's not a lot of isobars with

01:51it. And that's because it's not

01:53really developing much.

01:55We're not calling it an

01:56intensifying area of low pressure.

01:58And the reason for that, well, we

01:59have to look high up in the

02:00atmosphere at the jet stream.

02:02Now, this is the picture for the

02:04next couple of days.

02:05We're on the northern side

02:06of the jet stream, the cooler

02:08side. Here's that low that's moving

02:10in for Friday and Saturday.

02:12And notice the jet's not

02:13particularly strong.

02:15The pink colour is the core of the

02:17jet, not especially

02:19dominant. So that's why that low

02:20isn't really intensifying as it

02:22moves across the UK.

02:23Where the jet does get really

02:25lively through the next few days is

02:27out in the Atlantic.

02:29And this is kind of triggered by

02:30the severe storms that's going on

02:32across the US at the moment.

02:33But look at the jet stream by

02:34Saturday. It's really driving south

02:36and some brighter pinky purpley

02:38colours there, the core of the jet

02:39intensifying.

02:41And what happens is the jet dives

02:42south and that amplifies,

02:45as we say, the jet and pushes it

02:46northwards to the west

02:48of the UK and eventually then

02:50arches over the UK.

02:52And we're in an upper ridge

02:54where on the warmer side of the jet

02:56by Sunday and it's in this

02:58upper ridge area, whereas at the

03:00surface we're going to see that high

03:01pressure starting to move

03:03in. So the high pressure taking

03:05control through the weekend.

03:07So we're really expecting this

03:08changeover during the weekend.

03:09Saturday, still a fair few showers

03:11around some sunshine.

03:12The showers fading through the day

03:14and generally most places

03:16set for a fine day on Sunday with

03:18some sunshine, but it doesn't warm

03:20up immediately. It takes a while.

03:21So gardeners, well, still take note.

03:23Frost's possible, especially so on

03:25Sunday morning.

03:26Yes, that warming process is going

03:28to take a while. The cold air still

03:29in place during Saturday.

03:31But let's build the high pressure

03:32in through Sunday and Monday and

03:34notice how those blue colours

03:36disappear.

03:37But the yellow and orange colours

03:39don't really swamp the UK.

03:41Still some tinges of green there by

03:42Monday. So we're only really at this

03:44stage looking at temperatures

03:45getting back closer to

03:47average, especially so in the

03:49east.

03:50Then what happens next week?

03:51Well, that high pressure should

03:53stick around.

03:54It looks like it's going to

03:55dominate.

03:56There are weather fronts out in the

03:57Atlantic and some uncertainty about

03:59how far they will push in the

04:00threat of some bringing some rain

04:02across the northwest.

04:03But for most places, that high

04:05pressure promises a lot of dry

04:07weather next week.

04:08Many places seeing sunny spells

04:10by day.

04:11Big question mark, how much will we

04:13warm up?

04:14And for that, well, day by day

04:15variations on the position

04:17of the high and the exact

04:20direction of the wind.

04:21Well, that will have a big impact

04:23on what we see temperature wise.

04:25Will it really warm up that much?

04:26Well, the continent at this stage

04:28hasn't warmed up.

04:29So even if we get the winds from

04:30the continent, not necessarily

04:32looking at temperatures rocketing,

04:33but it should certainly feel quite

04:36a bit warmer than it has done for

04:37the past few days.

04:39And how long will the high pressure

04:40last? Well, it looks like most of

04:42next week. This graphic

04:44telling us that the high pressure

04:45will dominate for a while.

04:47Now, don't worry too much about the

04:49numbers. It's mostly about the

04:50colours.

04:51These are the computer runs over

04:53recent days and these are the

04:54forecast days going along

04:56the top. So the weekend is here

04:59and you can see the blue colours

05:00dominating for the next two or

05:02three days. Blue means low

05:04pressure. And as we've seen, that's

05:05what we're expecting low to stick

05:07around. But then the high pressure

05:09builds in and it probably will

05:10last. It looks like well into

05:12next week and

05:14only some uncertainty as we get

05:15towards right towards the end of

05:17next week, as you'd expect.

05:19That is eight or nine days

05:21away. So for the majority,

05:23dry weather will dominate

05:24throughout next week.

05:25We should see some sunshine and

05:26we'll probably see those

05:27temperatures rising a little bit

05:30at this stage.

05:31As always, with the 10 day trend,

05:33things can vary day on day.

05:35So make sure you keep up to date

05:36with the very latest forecasts by

05:38sticking with the Met Office and

05:40going to our website, downloading

05:42an app or following us on social

05:44media.

Ten Day Trend - Spring sunshine on the way but how warm will it get?

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