10 Day Trend - How long will the heat last? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

It’s turning hot over the UK in the next few days, with different parts of the country experiencing the heat at different times. By next week the mercury for all will be back closer to average. Alex Deakin explains.

Transcript

00:00Hello. Welcome to the Met Office

00:02ten day trends that takes us

00:04into July.

00:05June has certainly been an

00:07interesting month.

00:08The first two thirds of it cool

00:10and wet. Spots we're about

00:12to embark on a hot spell of

00:14weather with many places seeing

00:16sunshine for the next three or

00:17four days and many of us seeing

00:19some heat. Although the

00:20distribution of that heat will

00:22vary day on day, as we'll

00:23see in a minute.

00:25How long is the hot weather

00:26going to last?

00:28Well, the short answer is not

00:29very. Actually, as we go through

00:31the weekends, temperatures will be

00:33dropping back down closer to

00:34average. And next week promises,

00:37well, actually, maybe what

00:39many of us have been hoping for.

00:40Some dry weather, some sunny

00:42spells, but without the

00:44intense heat that some

00:46of us will see over the next few

00:48days. So there's plenty to talk

00:49about in the coming 10

00:51days.

00:52Let's deal with the big picture.

00:53First of all, high pressure to the

00:55northwest of the UK, low pressure

00:57down to the southwest.

00:58It's that that's drawing up the

00:59warmer air.

01:00But as these two are squeezing

01:02together, notice quite a few

01:03isobars in the charts across the

01:05south. So, yes, we're talking

01:07about sunny weather for

01:08most and hot weather for a

01:10few as well. But we also do need to

01:12account for these strong and gusty

01:14winds across the south,

01:15particularly so the southwest

01:18during Thursday.

01:19Could start a bit misty and murky

01:20on Thursday, but the cloud moving

01:22back will stick with some in

01:24the far north and close to the

01:25east coast. But for many, it's

01:27sunshine on Thursday

01:29and temperatures jumping up.

01:30But with the winds coming in from

01:32the east, well, there'll be a big

01:34gradient in the temperatures across

01:36the UK. Parts of the east coast

01:38will really struggle, especially

01:39where it's cloudy, mid-teens

01:41at best. And it won't feel all that

01:43hot across East Anglia and the

01:44southeast, even inland, even in

01:46the sunshine.

01:47It'll actually be a bit cooler than

01:48Wednesday in some spots, only 24

01:50degrees Celsius.

01:52Now, it's in the west where

01:52temperatures will really be most

01:54noticeable through Thursday.

01:56Twenty eight, twenty nine is

01:57possible across parts of the

01:58southwest and warmer

02:01across Western Scotland and Northern

02:03Ireland. Could well be the warmest

02:04day of the year so far in this

02:06part of the country.

02:08Let's fast forward to Friday

02:10and, well, it's going to be a

02:11similar story again.

02:12Parts of the east coast will be

02:14cooler, but if anything, temperatures

02:15are a touch higher across parts of

02:17the west. Twenty nine or thirty is

02:18possible on Friday, close

02:21to the Glastonbury area.

02:22By this stage, notice the high

02:24pressure has shifted.

02:25Instead of being to the northwest,

02:27it's now moved out into

02:29the North Sea and that subtle shift

02:31is important because it allows the

02:32southerly flow to take hold.

02:35And so even more

02:37of that hot air coming up from

02:39France, Spain and in fact, North

02:41Africa is heading our way

02:43through Friday and especially

02:45into Saturday.

02:46So that's why it's hotting up

02:47through Friday.

02:48And then if we just fast forward

02:49into the weekend, the high just

02:51shifts away, the low pressure

02:53starts to build in more and we

02:54just get a subtle shift in

02:56the wind direction, particularly

02:58across parts of the west, which

02:59means the air here won't be quite

03:01as hot. The peak of the temperatures

03:03going to be across the east on

03:05Saturday, and that will be a big

03:07jump because we'll have lost that

03:08flow from the North Sea and the

03:10wind's small. Coming in from the

03:11south means temperatures could

03:13really get up over 30 degrees

03:15with the possibility of

03:16values getting into the mid 30s,

03:19probably somewhere to the north of

03:20London. A few days away.

03:22So, yes, details could vary on

03:24that. But we are expecting the peak

03:25of the heat now to be across these

03:27eastern areas on Saturday.

03:29But even here, it doesn't last

03:30because just as we run through

03:32Saturday night and Sunday, look at

03:34that heat draining away,

03:36pushing into the near continent by

03:38Sunday.

03:39We're back to the yellow and green

03:41colours. Temperatures will be a big

03:43drop for large parts

03:45of the country from Saturday into

03:46Sunday. Low pressure back in

03:48control and the winds now not

03:49coming from the south, but coming

03:50from the Atlantic, where they have

03:52been for much of June.

03:54So that's bringing that, well,

03:56cooler, maybe over-egging

03:58it a little bit less hot feel,

04:00certainly on Sunday.

04:01It means the nights will become much

04:03more comfortable as well, much less

04:05humid. So we're going to see a big

04:06change or big changes over

04:08the next few days.

04:10This image shows that quite nicely.

04:12This is where we're going to see the

04:13peak of the heat Thursday.

04:15The red colours, temperatures above

04:17average. So it's western areas

04:18seeing the heat really on Thursday

04:20and particularly so on Friday.

04:21The darker red there, well above

04:23average across the west.

04:24Notice both days that east coast

04:26actually hints of blue there,

04:27temperatures below average

04:29here.

04:30Big switch around on Saturday, the

04:32cooler air coming into the west.

04:33So it's eastern areas that see

04:35those temperatures well above

04:37average. And it's going to be a big,

04:38big jump, especially on that east

04:40coast, a big jump which then

04:42gets returned on Sunday

04:44as the cooler air spreads right

04:46across the country and temperatures

04:47more widely back closer to

04:49average. It's going to be a real

04:50roller coaster ride over the next

04:52few days.

04:54But this is, of course, the 10 day

04:55trend. So we need to look at beyond

04:57the weekend into next week.

04:58Let's start with the picture on

04:59Sunday. Low pressure is in control,

05:01so it will be quite breezy.

05:02A lot of isobars on the chart and

05:04it will be noticeably cooler.

05:06But if we just pull out, yes,

05:08low pressure bringing a few showers

05:09on Monday. But this is a big area

05:11of high pressure.

05:13And actually through next week,

05:15it looks like this will be the

05:16dominant feature.

05:18I'm going to show you one computer

05:19scenario now for next Tuesday.

05:21This is the European model.

05:22Which has the high pressure here

05:23pretty much sitting slap bang over

05:25the UK. But notice the green and

05:27the yellow colour.

05:28So although it'll be largely dry,

05:30probably fairly sunny, it's

05:32not going to be as hot.

05:34Temperatures will probably be around

05:36or a bit below average in the

05:37mornings in particular.

05:38Could be rather chilly.

05:40Fast forward to next Thursday.

05:42Again, this is just one computer

05:43scenario, but I want to show you it

05:45because it does show the two

05:47fighting elements as we go into

05:48next week. Still, mostly there's

05:50a bit of ridging in there.

05:51Mostly it's high pressure in

05:52control next Thursday.

05:54But just above my head there,

05:56that's an area of low pressure.

05:57And notice the heat isn't

05:59too far away.

06:00So it would only take a subtle

06:01shift in the position of the

06:03pressure pattern, either to bring

06:04the low pressure closer and bring

06:06us more showers or also to

06:08reinstigate the heat, especially

06:10across parts of the south.

06:11So that's the big question mark as

06:13we go into next week.

06:14A lot of places seeing a lot of

06:15fine weather next week.

06:16But we could see, as I say,

06:18maybe the heat returning across the

06:19south, but equally some wetter

06:20weather into the north and west.

06:22And that's displayed with these

06:24graphs here that show

06:26the trends through 10 days and

06:27beyond. Actually, the top two

06:29representing Oban on the west

06:31coast of Scotland, the bottom two

06:33showing Northwold just to

06:34the west of London.

06:36Now, the red blobs, that's the

06:37temperature. And you can see here

06:39that big jump we're expecting in

06:40and around eastern parts of

06:42England. Temperatures around

06:44about average.

06:45This is Wednesday, Thursday,

06:47Friday, and then that big jump for

06:48Saturday before they drop back

06:49down into the early part of next

06:51week. But there's a hint here

06:53for the second half of next week,

06:55the temperatures could start to

06:56rise as the suggestion

06:58that we could tap back into that

06:59hot air.

07:00Whereas compare that with Oban and

07:02we've got the temperatures rising

07:04over the next few days, the drop on

07:05Saturday dropping further on

07:07Sunday and probably staying closer

07:09to average into next week.

07:11But also I want to show you the

07:12difference in the rainfall, the

07:13green blobs here.

07:15And over the next 10 days

07:17or so, very little rain expected in

07:18the North Holt area.

07:20But increasingly with that low

07:21pressure closer by as we go

07:23into the middle part of next week,

07:25greater chance of seeing showers

07:27across into the Oban area.

07:28So that's really the reflections as

07:30we go into next week.

07:31At the moment, it looks like, well,

07:33it won't be as hot as the next few

07:36days, but many places will see a lot

07:37of dry and fine weather

07:39and some sunshine.

07:40The nights in particular could be on

07:42the cool side, largely dry

07:43across the south.

07:45Most likely see showers across the

07:47north and the west closer to that

07:48area of low pressure.

07:50Plenty going on then, as I said,

07:51make sure you stay up to date with

07:53the very latest.

07:54The best way to do that is to

07:56follow us on social media.

10 Day Trend - How long will the heat last?

Category

Transcript

Recommended