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Report
10 Day Trend - How long will the heat last?
Met Office
Follow
14/10/2024
Itβs turning hot over the UK in the next few days, with different parts of the country experiencing the heat at different times. By next week the mercury for all will be back closer to average. Alex Deakin explains.
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00:00
Hello. Welcome to the Met Office
00:02
ten day trends that takes us
00:04
into July.
00:05
June has certainly been an
00:07
interesting month.
00:08
The first two thirds of it cool
00:10
and wet. Spots we're about
00:12
to embark on a hot spell of
00:14
weather with many places seeing
00:16
sunshine for the next three or
00:17
four days and many of us seeing
00:19
some heat. Although the
00:20
distribution of that heat will
00:22
vary day on day, as we'll
00:23
see in a minute.
00:25
How long is the hot weather
00:26
going to last?
00:28
Well, the short answer is not
00:29
very. Actually, as we go through
00:31
the weekends, temperatures will be
00:33
dropping back down closer to
00:34
average. And next week promises,
00:37
well, actually, maybe what
00:39
many of us have been hoping for.
00:40
Some dry weather, some sunny
00:42
spells, but without the
00:44
intense heat that some
00:46
of us will see over the next few
00:48
days. So there's plenty to talk
00:49
about in the coming 10
00:51
days.
00:52
Let's deal with the big picture.
00:53
First of all, high pressure to the
00:55
northwest of the UK, low pressure
00:57
down to the southwest.
00:58
It's that that's drawing up the
00:59
warmer air.
01:00
But as these two are squeezing
01:02
together, notice quite a few
01:03
isobars in the charts across the
01:05
south. So, yes, we're talking
01:07
about sunny weather for
01:08
most and hot weather for a
01:10
few as well. But we also do need to
01:12
account for these strong and gusty
01:14
winds across the south,
01:15
particularly so the southwest
01:18
during Thursday.
01:19
Could start a bit misty and murky
01:20
on Thursday, but the cloud moving
01:22
back will stick with some in
01:24
the far north and close to the
01:25
east coast. But for many, it's
01:27
sunshine on Thursday
01:29
and temperatures jumping up.
01:30
But with the winds coming in from
01:32
the east, well, there'll be a big
01:34
gradient in the temperatures across
01:36
the UK. Parts of the east coast
01:38
will really struggle, especially
01:39
where it's cloudy, mid-teens
01:41
at best. And it won't feel all that
01:43
hot across East Anglia and the
01:44
southeast, even inland, even in
01:46
the sunshine.
01:47
It'll actually be a bit cooler than
01:48
Wednesday in some spots, only 24
01:50
degrees Celsius.
01:52
Now, it's in the west where
01:52
temperatures will really be most
01:54
noticeable through Thursday.
01:56
Twenty eight, twenty nine is
01:57
possible across parts of the
01:58
southwest and warmer
02:01
across Western Scotland and Northern
02:03
Ireland. Could well be the warmest
02:04
day of the year so far in this
02:06
part of the country.
02:08
Let's fast forward to Friday
02:10
and, well, it's going to be a
02:11
similar story again.
02:12
Parts of the east coast will be
02:14
cooler, but if anything, temperatures
02:15
are a touch higher across parts of
02:17
the west. Twenty nine or thirty is
02:18
possible on Friday, close
02:21
to the Glastonbury area.
02:22
By this stage, notice the high
02:24
pressure has shifted.
02:25
Instead of being to the northwest,
02:27
it's now moved out into
02:29
the North Sea and that subtle shift
02:31
is important because it allows the
02:32
southerly flow to take hold.
02:35
And so even more
02:37
of that hot air coming up from
02:39
France, Spain and in fact, North
02:41
Africa is heading our way
02:43
through Friday and especially
02:45
into Saturday.
02:46
So that's why it's hotting up
02:47
through Friday.
02:48
And then if we just fast forward
02:49
into the weekend, the high just
02:51
shifts away, the low pressure
02:53
starts to build in more and we
02:54
just get a subtle shift in
02:56
the wind direction, particularly
02:58
across parts of the west, which
02:59
means the air here won't be quite
03:01
as hot. The peak of the temperatures
03:03
going to be across the east on
03:05
Saturday, and that will be a big
03:07
jump because we'll have lost that
03:08
flow from the North Sea and the
03:10
wind's small. Coming in from the
03:11
south means temperatures could
03:13
really get up over 30 degrees
03:15
with the possibility of
03:16
values getting into the mid 30s,
03:19
probably somewhere to the north of
03:20
London. A few days away.
03:22
So, yes, details could vary on
03:24
that. But we are expecting the peak
03:25
of the heat now to be across these
03:27
eastern areas on Saturday.
03:29
But even here, it doesn't last
03:30
because just as we run through
03:32
Saturday night and Sunday, look at
03:34
that heat draining away,
03:36
pushing into the near continent by
03:38
Sunday.
03:39
We're back to the yellow and green
03:41
colours. Temperatures will be a big
03:43
drop for large parts
03:45
of the country from Saturday into
03:46
Sunday. Low pressure back in
03:48
control and the winds now not
03:49
coming from the south, but coming
03:50
from the Atlantic, where they have
03:52
been for much of June.
03:54
So that's bringing that, well,
03:56
cooler, maybe over-egging
03:58
it a little bit less hot feel,
04:00
certainly on Sunday.
04:01
It means the nights will become much
04:03
more comfortable as well, much less
04:05
humid. So we're going to see a big
04:06
change or big changes over
04:08
the next few days.
04:10
This image shows that quite nicely.
04:12
This is where we're going to see the
04:13
peak of the heat Thursday.
04:15
The red colours, temperatures above
04:17
average. So it's western areas
04:18
seeing the heat really on Thursday
04:20
and particularly so on Friday.
04:21
The darker red there, well above
04:23
average across the west.
04:24
Notice both days that east coast
04:26
actually hints of blue there,
04:27
temperatures below average
04:29
here.
04:30
Big switch around on Saturday, the
04:32
cooler air coming into the west.
04:33
So it's eastern areas that see
04:35
those temperatures well above
04:37
average. And it's going to be a big,
04:38
big jump, especially on that east
04:40
coast, a big jump which then
04:42
gets returned on Sunday
04:44
as the cooler air spreads right
04:46
across the country and temperatures
04:47
more widely back closer to
04:49
average. It's going to be a real
04:50
roller coaster ride over the next
04:52
few days.
04:54
But this is, of course, the 10 day
04:55
trend. So we need to look at beyond
04:57
the weekend into next week.
04:58
Let's start with the picture on
04:59
Sunday. Low pressure is in control,
05:01
so it will be quite breezy.
05:02
A lot of isobars on the chart and
05:04
it will be noticeably cooler.
05:06
But if we just pull out, yes,
05:08
low pressure bringing a few showers
05:09
on Monday. But this is a big area
05:11
of high pressure.
05:13
And actually through next week,
05:15
it looks like this will be the
05:16
dominant feature.
05:18
I'm going to show you one computer
05:19
scenario now for next Tuesday.
05:21
This is the European model.
05:22
Which has the high pressure here
05:23
pretty much sitting slap bang over
05:25
the UK. But notice the green and
05:27
the yellow colour.
05:28
So although it'll be largely dry,
05:30
probably fairly sunny, it's
05:32
not going to be as hot.
05:34
Temperatures will probably be around
05:36
or a bit below average in the
05:37
mornings in particular.
05:38
Could be rather chilly.
05:40
Fast forward to next Thursday.
05:42
Again, this is just one computer
05:43
scenario, but I want to show you it
05:45
because it does show the two
05:47
fighting elements as we go into
05:48
next week. Still, mostly there's
05:50
a bit of ridging in there.
05:51
Mostly it's high pressure in
05:52
control next Thursday.
05:54
But just above my head there,
05:56
that's an area of low pressure.
05:57
And notice the heat isn't
05:59
too far away.
06:00
So it would only take a subtle
06:01
shift in the position of the
06:03
pressure pattern, either to bring
06:04
the low pressure closer and bring
06:06
us more showers or also to
06:08
reinstigate the heat, especially
06:10
across parts of the south.
06:11
So that's the big question mark as
06:13
we go into next week.
06:14
A lot of places seeing a lot of
06:15
fine weather next week.
06:16
But we could see, as I say,
06:18
maybe the heat returning across the
06:19
south, but equally some wetter
06:20
weather into the north and west.
06:22
And that's displayed with these
06:24
graphs here that show
06:26
the trends through 10 days and
06:27
beyond. Actually, the top two
06:29
representing Oban on the west
06:31
coast of Scotland, the bottom two
06:33
showing Northwold just to
06:34
the west of London.
06:36
Now, the red blobs, that's the
06:37
temperature. And you can see here
06:39
that big jump we're expecting in
06:40
and around eastern parts of
06:42
England. Temperatures around
06:44
about average.
06:45
This is Wednesday, Thursday,
06:47
Friday, and then that big jump for
06:48
Saturday before they drop back
06:49
down into the early part of next
06:51
week. But there's a hint here
06:53
for the second half of next week,
06:55
the temperatures could start to
06:56
rise as the suggestion
06:58
that we could tap back into that
06:59
hot air.
07:00
Whereas compare that with Oban and
07:02
we've got the temperatures rising
07:04
over the next few days, the drop on
07:05
Saturday dropping further on
07:07
Sunday and probably staying closer
07:09
to average into next week.
07:11
But also I want to show you the
07:12
difference in the rainfall, the
07:13
green blobs here.
07:15
And over the next 10 days
07:17
or so, very little rain expected in
07:18
the North Holt area.
07:20
But increasingly with that low
07:21
pressure closer by as we go
07:23
into the middle part of next week,
07:25
greater chance of seeing showers
07:27
across into the Oban area.
07:28
So that's really the reflections as
07:30
we go into next week.
07:31
At the moment, it looks like, well,
07:33
it won't be as hot as the next few
07:36
days, but many places will see a lot
07:37
of dry and fine weather
07:39
and some sunshine.
07:40
The nights in particular could be on
07:42
the cool side, largely dry
07:43
across the south.
07:45
Most likely see showers across the
07:47
north and the west closer to that
07:48
area of low pressure.
07:50
Plenty going on then, as I said,
07:51
make sure you stay up to date with
07:53
the very latest.
07:54
The best way to do that is to
07:56
follow us on social media.
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