10 Day Trend – Turning drier for a time, could it be hotting up? 19/06/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

The end of this week brings some fine weather after what has been a very wet start to June. The sunshine may not last too long, but then could we get some heat next week? It’s just a possibility at this stage Alex Deakin explains.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met

00:02Office 10 day trend, 10 days

00:04that could be a bit of a roller

00:05coaster, meteorologically

00:07speaking.

00:08Meteorological summer has got off

00:10to a wet start, a very

00:12wet start. There's no getting away

00:13from the fact that June has been

00:16very soggy so far.

00:17But if you're after some dry and

00:18sunny weather, well, the next few

00:20days promises some of that.

00:22Yes, the weather's settling down,

00:23certainly Friday and Saturday look

00:25fine for most.

00:26It may not last all that long

00:28through the course of the weekend,

00:30particularly early next week.

00:31We are looking at the return of

00:32showers and then things could get

00:34very interesting through the middle

00:36of next week.

00:38There is the possibility,

00:40and I must stress the possibility

00:42of some heat heading up towards

00:44the UK, but it's just one scenario.

00:46There's a couple of possibilities

00:47for next week, as we will talk

00:49about in just a moment.

00:50So if you're planning to head to a

00:52certain festival next week,

00:54well, you may want to stay tuned

00:56for more updates on Glastonbury.

00:59Right. Let's deal with the shorter

01:00term because, yes, lots of showers

01:02around on Wednesday and Thursday

01:04from an area of low pressure.

01:05But what we've been waiting for

01:07for most of June to settle things

01:09down is high pressure.

01:10And finally, it's going to arrive

01:12through Friday and Saturday.

01:13There'll still be some showers

01:15across Scotland, particularly

01:16northern Scotland, on Saturday.

01:18But for most places, this high

01:20calming things down, bringing much

01:22drier weather through Friday and

01:24Saturday and probably for many

01:25on Sunday as well, though notice

01:27this area of low pressure is

01:29lurking.

01:30More on that in a moment, certainly

01:31for most Friday and Saturday

01:33and Sunday looking dry.

01:35There'll be some sunshine and it'll

01:37start to feel a bit warmer as well.

01:39But the mornings will still be on

01:41the chilly side.

01:42What happens after that?

01:43Well, that's where the uncertainty

01:45starts. That area of low pressure I

01:46talked about tries to edge

01:48in and bump away our area

01:50of high pressure. But it's a slow

01:52old process. This low is not moving

01:54anywhere fast.

01:55And that is one of the big

01:57complications about the forecast

01:59for next week.

01:59It's not like we've got low

02:01pressure after low pressure whizzing

02:02across the UK.

02:04It's all very static.

02:05And this weather front is fringing

02:06in, potentially bringing some rain

02:08into parts of the West on Sunday,

02:10more particularly on Sunday nights.

02:12But for many, the high pressure will

02:14hang on for Sunday too.

02:16Now, why is this low just sitting

02:17still? Why is it not moving

02:19very far? Well, for that, we need to

02:20look high up in the atmosphere

02:23at the jet stream.

02:24We've talked about this before, but

02:26the jet stream really is in a

02:28classic omega block situation

02:30as we go into the early part of next

02:32week. This is the omega block, the

02:33jet stream driving south

02:35away from the eastern side of the

02:37United States, then up to the north

02:39across Greenland and then down to the

02:41south again. It's called an omega

02:42block because it's shaped like the

02:44Greek letter omega.

02:45And it's called a block because

02:47when the jet stream's in this kind of

02:49pattern, things just don't

02:51shift very far, very quickly.

02:53The jet stream isn't driving

02:55the low pressure systems on, it's

02:57kind of just sitting still and it's

02:58in this curve, this trough

03:00where low pressures just tend to

03:02mill around.

03:03That's the situation we've seen

03:05so far through June with the low

03:06sitting over the UK.

03:07That's why June has been so wet so

03:09far.

03:10The difference here is that the low

03:12has now shifted a little bit down to

03:13the southwest and that

03:16could have implications for the

03:17weather next week.

03:19But certainly early next week, with

03:20low pressure sitting nearby, the

03:21weather front edging in, there will

03:23be some rain around on this.

03:25But also with the low pressure

03:27down to the southwest, the winds

03:29swirling around an area of low

03:30pressure like this, there is the

03:32likelihood

03:34of some warmer weather,

03:36potentially some very hot weather

03:38wafting up across Spain,

03:40into France, up towards Germany.

03:42And notice we are not too far away

03:44from tapping into that hot

03:46air and it really is very hot

03:48air. So imagine the scenario where

03:49that low pressure is just a little

03:51bit further west and

03:53we could tap into that hot air

03:54across the UK.

03:55But equally, if the low pressure is

03:57just a little bit, we're only

03:58talking about 100 miles or so

04:00further east, then we will stay

04:02in the cool air.

04:03And that's the big conundrum,

04:04especially around the middle part

04:06of next week.

04:08And the computer models are

04:09completely in agreement about

04:11exactly what's going to happen yet.

04:12And there's nothing too unusual

04:13about that. But this is one scenario

04:15from the European computer model

04:18from Wednesday for the forecast

04:20for the middle of next week, for

04:21next Wednesday.

04:22And you can see this scenario has

04:24the low pressure here and all the

04:25hot air right across the UK.

04:27That would see temperatures really

04:29jumping up.

04:30But the same computer model

04:32yesterday was forecasting

04:34something rather different.

04:35This is the same time frame.

04:36So for the middle of next week, all

04:38the hot air was still across

04:40mainland Europe and we were in the

04:41cooler conditions with the low

04:42pressure down to the southwest.

04:44So it's a subtle balance.

04:46One of those two scenarios

04:48likely for next week.

04:49And this graphic sums it up quite

04:51nicely because instead of just

04:52running one computer model,

04:53we run several.

04:54We call it an ensemble.

04:56And this gives an average or a

04:57spread of likely scenarios.

05:00Now, this graphic is

05:02showing that the hot air is very

05:03likely. The white colours, that's

05:05where we're very certain that it's

05:06going to be hot across Italy and

05:08much of mainland Europe.

05:09And the cooler conditions, again,

05:11a lot of certainty with the paler

05:12colours here out in the Atlantic.

05:14But the UK is in the middle

05:16with these green colours.

05:17And that's where the uncertainty

05:19lies. We're kind of in the sweet

05:20spot of uncertainty.

05:22One of those two scenarios.

05:23But which one will win out?

05:25Scenario one, the low pressures

05:27down to the southwest.

05:28We get some heat, some real

05:30heat, something we haven't seen so

05:32far this summer, but it will also

05:33be very humid.

05:34The nights will be uncomfortable

05:36and there's the threats with the

05:38hot and humid air of some big

05:40intense thunderstorms.

05:42The other scenario is that that

05:43low pressure system is much closer

05:45to the UK.

05:46And it's as you were, as we have

05:48been for most of June, it stays

05:50cool, it stays mostly cloudy

05:52and it stays showery.

05:53Now, I hear you say, well, we just

05:55don't know.

05:56And at the moment, we just don't

05:57know between those two scenarios.

05:59But we're pretty confident it will

06:00be one of those two.

06:02So we're saying it's not going to

06:03be high pressure, fine weather,

06:05average temperatures.

06:06It's not likely to be cool

06:09and sunny.

06:10It's not likely to be chopping and

06:11changing very quickly with

06:12weather fronts moving across the

06:14UK. It's going to be either cool,

06:16cloudy and showery or the potential

06:18for that heat and humidity.

06:19If you're packing for Glastonbury,

06:21I agree that that's not

06:22necessarily that useful.

06:24But I think we can say is that you

06:25will need wellies because the

06:27ground is going to be soggy.

06:28You will also need sunscreen

06:30because if the sun comes out for

06:31any length of time at this time of

06:33year, UV levels are likely

06:35to be high.

06:36Stay tuned for details

06:38on any given location as

06:40we go through next week.

06:42And well, the message is always

06:44is stay tuned to the very latest

06:46from the Met Office.

06:47We have the expertise here to

06:48deliver the most accurate longer

06:50range forecast.

06:50Best way to stay up to date is to

06:52follow us on social media.

10 Day Trend – Turning drier for a time, could it be hotting up? 19/06/19

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