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10 Day Trend – September sunshine and warmer weather? 11/09/19
Met Office
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14/10/2024
High pressure will dominate the UK over the next week or so and, as a result, most places will have fine weather. It may not be that straightforward in Scotland, especially at the weekend, Alex Deakin explains.
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00:00
Welcome to the Met Office 10 day
00:02
trend, 10 days that takes us
00:04
to the equinox.
00:05
But while the days are still longer
00:07
than the nights, they should be
00:09
filled with plenty of fine, bright
00:11
weather. Yes, quite a bit of
00:12
September sunshine on offer
00:14
for much of the UK.
00:16
As always, there'll be one or two
00:17
exceptions.
00:18
There's still enough power in the
00:19
sun to produce some warm conditions
00:22
by day, but the nights are now long
00:23
enough for things to cool off.
00:25
So the nights and the mornings could
00:27
be a little bit on the chilly side.
00:29
Now, for fine, sunny weather, we
00:31
need high pressure to be building in
00:32
across the country.
00:33
And it is on the way, but
00:35
not for the next couple of days.
00:36
We've still got weather fronts and
00:38
low pressure dominating at the
00:39
moment. And this one in particular
00:41
will introduce cloud and rain into
00:43
the northwest.
00:44
But it's also bringing up some
00:45
warmer air from the south.
00:47
So on Thursday, with some sunshine
00:50
across the east, temperatures could
00:51
get into the mid-twenties.
00:53
As this weather front swings in, it
00:54
will reintroduce cooler air to the
00:56
northwest as well as bringing some
00:57
cloud and rain.
00:59
So quite a temperature contrast
01:01
across the country on Thursday.
01:03
But that weather front does clear
01:04
away. And here comes the high
01:06
pressure moving in on Friday
01:08
and sticking around through Saturday
01:11
and Sunday.
01:12
Just going to pause it there,
01:13
though, because it's not dominating
01:15
everywhere. Notice there's low
01:16
pressure to the far north, lots
01:18
of isobars on the chart across
01:19
Scotland.
01:20
Could get pretty gusty on Sunday.
01:23
Some strong winds, particularly in
01:24
the east. And this weather front
01:26
sinking south will bring some rain
01:28
across northern Scotland on
01:29
Saturday and perhaps push further
01:31
south on Sunday.
01:32
I say perhaps because there is
01:33
quite a bit of uncertainty about the
01:34
position of this weather front tied
01:36
into this area of low pressure.
01:38
And that comes from the jet stream.
01:40
That low is being driven by the jet
01:42
stream, but a subtle shift in the
01:44
jet could push that low and
01:46
its weather fronts further north or
01:47
it could just be a little bit
01:48
further south. So that is one
01:50
question mark for the weekend.
01:52
For the vast majority, though, with
01:54
high pressure dominating, the
01:55
weekend looks dry, plenty
01:57
of warm sunshine by day.
01:59
The morning's a little bit cool and
02:01
a little bit misty, but it is likely
02:03
to get quite gusty across Scotland
02:05
and there is the chance of some
02:07
rain around.
02:09
So that's the weekend.
02:10
What about next week?
02:11
High pressure is set to remain
02:13
in charge as it builds in
02:16
behind one cold front, temperatures
02:17
drop a little on Friday, but that
02:19
building high will see building
02:21
temperatures by the time we get to
02:23
Sunday, or we could have values
02:25
across the south back up into the
02:27
mid-20s.
02:28
Again, depending on the position of
02:29
that cold front, the colder air
02:31
could be in place across northern
02:33
Scotland and temperatures again
02:35
here could struggle to get into the
02:36
teens.
02:37
But this high is sticking around.
02:40
So is this weather front.
02:41
And that's one of the big question
02:42
marks into the early part of next
02:44
week. The position of this weather
02:46
front, will it be a bit further
02:47
south? Will it be a little bit
02:49
further north?
02:51
As I say, there's a bit of
02:51
uncertainty about that.
02:52
It doesn't make a massive
02:54
difference to the weather because
02:55
the high pressure is building in.
02:57
It's kind of stringing out the
02:58
weather front so there won't be a
03:00
lot of rain on it.
03:01
It'll just be probably a weak band
03:03
of clouds. But the position of it,
03:05
as I said, is important
03:07
because it marks the boundary
03:08
between the very warm air across the
03:10
south and the cooler air further
03:11
north. So a bit of a question mark
03:13
about where we'll see the highest
03:15
temperatures through the early part
03:16
of next week and just how high the
03:18
temperatures could get across the
03:19
south.
03:21
After that, well, the high pressure
03:23
really does look like taking
03:24
charges. This next graphic
03:26
shows.
03:27
This is the projections through
03:29
the future along the dates, along
03:30
the top there of what is the
03:32
more likely weather scenario
03:34
across the UK.
03:35
Blue would mean low pressure.
03:37
Red means high pressure
03:39
or anti-cyclonic conditions.
03:41
And as you can see, this graph
03:43
is pretty red.
03:45
A strong signal from the computer
03:47
models that high pressure will
03:48
continue to dominate throughout
03:50
next week. And high pressure means
03:52
dry and fine weather.
03:54
It can, at this time of year,
03:56
lead to some foggy mornings, of
03:57
course. And the position of the
03:59
high, well, that
04:01
will be crucial
04:03
in the fine detail day
04:05
by day across the country.
04:07
If the high pressure is sitting
04:08
pretty much slap bang across the
04:10
heart of the country, well, it may
04:12
at times allow some weather fronts
04:13
to bring cloud and rain to the
04:14
northwest while most of the UK
04:17
sees plenty of sunshine.
04:18
But in the centre of the high,
04:20
that's where the winds are lightest
04:22
and that's where we're most likely
04:23
to see some morning mist
04:25
and fog.
04:26
If the high pressure is situated a
04:27
little further west, that could
04:28
allow weather fronts,
04:30
showery rain to come down across
04:32
the northeastern, perhaps some
04:33
cooler air to come in here
04:35
too. And with the high pressure
04:36
shifted further west, it means
04:38
western areas are more likely to
04:39
start with mist and
04:41
fog. But if the high is a little
04:42
bit further north, most
04:44
places will be dry and fine with
04:46
some sunshine.
04:47
And that could also
04:48
allow us to tap into some warm
04:50
air from the near continent.
04:52
So as I said, just subtle
04:54
positional shifts in that high
04:56
will be, the devil will be in the
04:58
detail as we go through next
05:00
week. But it does look like high
05:01
pressure will bring many places
05:02
fine and dry weather for
05:04
much of the next 10 days.
05:07
Thanks for watching. Keep up to
05:08
date with the very latest details
05:10
day on day by following the Met
05:12
office on social media.
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