10 Day Trend – September sunshine and warmer weather? 11/09/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

High pressure will dominate the UK over the next week or so and, as a result, most places will have fine weather. It may not be that straightforward in Scotland, especially at the weekend, Alex Deakin explains.

Transcript

00:00Welcome to the Met Office 10 day

00:02trend, 10 days that takes us

00:04to the equinox.

00:05But while the days are still longer

00:07than the nights, they should be

00:09filled with plenty of fine, bright

00:11weather. Yes, quite a bit of

00:12September sunshine on offer

00:14for much of the UK.

00:16As always, there'll be one or two

00:17exceptions.

00:18There's still enough power in the

00:19sun to produce some warm conditions

00:22by day, but the nights are now long

00:23enough for things to cool off.

00:25So the nights and the mornings could

00:27be a little bit on the chilly side.

00:29Now, for fine, sunny weather, we

00:31need high pressure to be building in

00:32across the country.

00:33And it is on the way, but

00:35not for the next couple of days.

00:36We've still got weather fronts and

00:38low pressure dominating at the

00:39moment. And this one in particular

00:41will introduce cloud and rain into

00:43the northwest.

00:44But it's also bringing up some

00:45warmer air from the south.

00:47So on Thursday, with some sunshine

00:50across the east, temperatures could

00:51get into the mid-twenties.

00:53As this weather front swings in, it

00:54will reintroduce cooler air to the

00:56northwest as well as bringing some

00:57cloud and rain.

00:59So quite a temperature contrast

01:01across the country on Thursday.

01:03But that weather front does clear

01:04away. And here comes the high

01:06pressure moving in on Friday

01:08and sticking around through Saturday

01:11and Sunday.

01:12Just going to pause it there,

01:13though, because it's not dominating

01:15everywhere. Notice there's low

01:16pressure to the far north, lots

01:18of isobars on the chart across

01:19Scotland.

01:20Could get pretty gusty on Sunday.

01:23Some strong winds, particularly in

01:24the east. And this weather front

01:26sinking south will bring some rain

01:28across northern Scotland on

01:29Saturday and perhaps push further

01:31south on Sunday.

01:32I say perhaps because there is

01:33quite a bit of uncertainty about the

01:34position of this weather front tied

01:36into this area of low pressure.

01:38And that comes from the jet stream.

01:40That low is being driven by the jet

01:42stream, but a subtle shift in the

01:44jet could push that low and

01:46its weather fronts further north or

01:47it could just be a little bit

01:48further south. So that is one

01:50question mark for the weekend.

01:52For the vast majority, though, with

01:54high pressure dominating, the

01:55weekend looks dry, plenty

01:57of warm sunshine by day.

01:59The morning's a little bit cool and

02:01a little bit misty, but it is likely

02:03to get quite gusty across Scotland

02:05and there is the chance of some

02:07rain around.

02:09So that's the weekend.

02:10What about next week?

02:11High pressure is set to remain

02:13in charge as it builds in

02:16behind one cold front, temperatures

02:17drop a little on Friday, but that

02:19building high will see building

02:21temperatures by the time we get to

02:23Sunday, or we could have values

02:25across the south back up into the

02:27mid-20s.

02:28Again, depending on the position of

02:29that cold front, the colder air

02:31could be in place across northern

02:33Scotland and temperatures again

02:35here could struggle to get into the

02:36teens.

02:37But this high is sticking around.

02:40So is this weather front.

02:41And that's one of the big question

02:42marks into the early part of next

02:44week. The position of this weather

02:46front, will it be a bit further

02:47south? Will it be a little bit

02:49further north?

02:51As I say, there's a bit of

02:51uncertainty about that.

02:52It doesn't make a massive

02:54difference to the weather because

02:55the high pressure is building in.

02:57It's kind of stringing out the

02:58weather front so there won't be a

03:00lot of rain on it.

03:01It'll just be probably a weak band

03:03of clouds. But the position of it,

03:05as I said, is important

03:07because it marks the boundary

03:08between the very warm air across the

03:10south and the cooler air further

03:11north. So a bit of a question mark

03:13about where we'll see the highest

03:15temperatures through the early part

03:16of next week and just how high the

03:18temperatures could get across the

03:19south.

03:21After that, well, the high pressure

03:23really does look like taking

03:24charges. This next graphic

03:26shows.

03:27This is the projections through

03:29the future along the dates, along

03:30the top there of what is the

03:32more likely weather scenario

03:34across the UK.

03:35Blue would mean low pressure.

03:37Red means high pressure

03:39or anti-cyclonic conditions.

03:41And as you can see, this graph

03:43is pretty red.

03:45A strong signal from the computer

03:47models that high pressure will

03:48continue to dominate throughout

03:50next week. And high pressure means

03:52dry and fine weather.

03:54It can, at this time of year,

03:56lead to some foggy mornings, of

03:57course. And the position of the

03:59high, well, that

04:01will be crucial

04:03in the fine detail day

04:05by day across the country.

04:07If the high pressure is sitting

04:08pretty much slap bang across the

04:10heart of the country, well, it may

04:12at times allow some weather fronts

04:13to bring cloud and rain to the

04:14northwest while most of the UK

04:17sees plenty of sunshine.

04:18But in the centre of the high,

04:20that's where the winds are lightest

04:22and that's where we're most likely

04:23to see some morning mist

04:25and fog.

04:26If the high pressure is situated a

04:27little further west, that could

04:28allow weather fronts,

04:30showery rain to come down across

04:32the northeastern, perhaps some

04:33cooler air to come in here

04:35too. And with the high pressure

04:36shifted further west, it means

04:38western areas are more likely to

04:39start with mist and

04:41fog. But if the high is a little

04:42bit further north, most

04:44places will be dry and fine with

04:46some sunshine.

04:47And that could also

04:48allow us to tap into some warm

04:50air from the near continent.

04:52So as I said, just subtle

04:54positional shifts in that high

04:56will be, the devil will be in the

04:58detail as we go through next

05:00week. But it does look like high

05:01pressure will bring many places

05:02fine and dry weather for

05:04much of the next 10 days.

05:07Thanks for watching. Keep up to

05:08date with the very latest details

05:10day on day by following the Met

05:12office on social media.

10 Day Trend – September sunshine and warmer weather? 11/09/19

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