Skip to player
Skip to main content
Skip to footer
Search
Connect
Watch fullscreen
Like
Comments
Bookmark
Share
Add to Playlist
Report
10 Day trend - Any sign of the weather patterns changing? 13/11/19
Met Office
Follow
14/10/2024
The main themes of the UK forecast remain cold with spells of further rain. The weather patterns stay that way well into next week, with perhaps a subtle change later next week, Alex Deakin explains.
Category
π
News
Transcript
Display full video transcript
00:00
Thanks for joining me for this 10-day
00:02
trend, where we look at the weather
00:04
patterns and trends for the medium
00:05
to long range.
00:07
Now, in the short range, there's some
00:08
more severe weather on the way.
00:10
Plenty of heavy rain to come and
00:12
there are weather warnings in force.
00:13
I'm not going to go through those in
00:15
detail here.
00:16
If you want to know the latest on the
00:17
severe weather, download the Met
00:19
Office app or visit our website.
00:21
Now, I'm looking at the longer range
00:23
trends, which are for more of
00:25
the same. It does look as if
00:26
generally well into next week, it
00:28
stays unsettled.
00:29
Further spells of rain and often
00:31
blustery conditions and always
00:32
staying on the chilly side as well.
00:34
There are hints that perhaps things
00:36
could turn a little bit milder
00:38
as we go through it next week.
00:39
But the weather patterns kind of
00:41
been stuck in a rut now for a
00:43
number of weeks.
00:44
Let's take a look at the big
00:45
picture. This is the jet stream
00:46
notice it driving down to the
00:48
southwest of the UK, up across
00:50
Greenland and then driving south.
00:52
And in this position, it generally
00:53
allows low pressure systems just to
00:55
sit in here and mill around
00:58
across the UK.
00:58
That is why we keep seeing those
01:00
spells of rain.
01:02
Now, why are we seeing this
01:03
repeating weather pattern?
01:04
Well, one of the reasons is
01:06
over in the United States, we're
01:07
seeing a repeated pattern here.
01:09
Cold plunges, areas
01:11
of cold air drifting south from the
01:12
Arctic over eastern parts of
01:14
Canada and eastern parts of the
01:16
United States. And we get another
01:17
one of those pushes of cold air
01:19
driving south this weekend.
01:21
Why is that important?
01:22
Well, the cold air derives south,
01:24
clashes with the warmer air over
01:25
the tropics, and that gives the jet
01:27
stream a bit of oomph, a bit
01:29
of extra energy.
01:30
It pushes it to the north, up
01:31
across Greenland, and then that
01:33
drives down to the south
01:35
to the west of the UK.
01:37
Now, this is the chart for Sunday,
01:38
but it does look remarkably like
01:40
that one I showed you a minute ago
01:42
for the one on Wednesday.
01:43
So again, that weather pattern is
01:45
set to repeat for the next few days
01:47
and we stay on the cold side of the
01:49
jet with low pressure nearby.
01:51
Now, those low pressures will bring
01:53
further spells of rain, one
01:54
particularly across eastern areas
01:56
into Friday night and Saturday
01:58
could cause some further problems.
01:59
And then this one just flirting
02:01
with the southwest on Sunday.
02:03
But notice it's not going to rain
02:04
everywhere all weekend.
02:06
Some places will be between those
02:07
two weather systems.
02:08
So there will be dry spells around
02:10
this weekend, but just don't
02:12
expect it to be warm.
02:13
We stay on the cold side of the jet,
02:15
so it's going to be chilly.
02:16
Morning frosts are very
02:17
possible and also some fog
02:19
patches as well.
02:20
But as I said, it won't rain
02:21
everywhere all weekend.
02:22
There will be some dry periods.
02:24
We do need to flag that rain
02:25
potentially across eastern England,
02:27
certainly on Saturday morning.
02:30
What about beyond the weekend?
02:31
Will we continue with this
02:33
repeating weather pattern?
02:34
Well, chances are, yes,
02:36
I'm going to show you a Hofmuller
02:37
plot now. Now, it's quite a
02:39
complicated graph, but it
02:40
does show the repeated cycle
02:43
quite clearly.
02:44
Now, this is longitude along
02:46
the x-axis to the bottom.
02:47
There's the UK at zero, the Greenwich
02:49
meridian. This dotted line
02:50
represents where we are now.
02:52
Things above that are going
02:54
back in time and things below
02:56
it are going forward in time.
02:58
So this is the projection.
02:59
It's basically a slice through
03:01
mid-latitudes, medium
03:03
or upper levels of the atmosphere
03:05
where red represents
03:07
higher pressure and blue
03:09
represents lower pressure.
03:10
Now, don't worry too much about
03:11
deciphering the detail.
03:12
I just really wanted to show you
03:14
the repeated pattern as we go back
03:15
in time here over the past several
03:17
weeks. You can see that we've had
03:19
this repeating pattern with high
03:21
pressure, low pressure, high
03:22
pressure. That's across the
03:23
Mid-Atlantic and there's the UK
03:25
stuck in that slightly blue zone.
03:27
That's why we've kept on seeing
03:29
low pressure systems across the UK.
03:31
And it's also important because I
03:32
want to show you going forward,
03:34
that pattern is likely to stick
03:36
around well into next
03:38
week. So we're likely to stay with
03:40
low pressure close to the UK.
03:42
One subtle difference, though,
03:43
that I want to highlight, just that
03:45
red blob there, areas
03:47
to the east of the UK
03:49
just showing signs that the high
03:50
pressure here may intensify,
03:53
may get a little bit stronger next
03:54
week. And if we see slightly higher
03:56
pressure over the near continent,
03:58
it means the lows may
04:00
not be sitting as close to the UK.
04:01
They're more likely to be a little
04:03
bit further west.
04:04
And if that's the set up, this is
04:05
the most likely set up through next
04:07
week. It means that the winds
04:09
perhaps could start coming more in
04:10
from the southwest.
04:11
Now, that's important for a couple
04:13
of reasons.
04:14
It suggests that through next week,
04:15
perhaps it won't be quite as
04:17
cold. I'm not suggesting it's going
04:18
to get warmer. We generally stay on
04:20
the cold side of the jet, but
04:22
it won't be quite so cold.
04:23
Temperatures back closer to average.
04:25
And it also means with the winds
04:26
coming more in from the west, that
04:28
it's western areas that are
04:30
more likely to see the
04:31
outbreaks of rain, which is good
04:33
news with the flooding across parts
04:35
of the east, of course, but not
04:37
great news because it is very
04:38
wet already across the west.
04:40
So that's the themes into next week.
04:41
Yet it remains unsettled.
04:43
Low pressure will be the dominant
04:45
feature, but we are more likely to
04:47
see a subtle shift with more wet
04:48
weather in the west compared to the
04:50
eastern temperatures, perhaps just
04:52
rising closer to average.
04:54
As always, there's a lot of
04:55
uncertainty. These are just the
04:57
general trends.
04:57
And as I said at the start, for the
04:59
details of the very latest
05:01
weather warnings, make sure you
05:02
stay weather aware by visiting the
05:04
Met Office website or following
05:06
us on social media.
Recommended
1:15
|
Up next
Big Ben Tower - exciting new landmark on Skegness seafront
National World
2 days ago
4:54
10 Day trend - Any signs of sunny weather returning? 07/08/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
5:38
10 Day trend - Are there any signs of a shift in weather patterns? 04/03/20
Met Office
14/10/2024
4:12
Week ahead - Rain then sunshine then uncertainty 30/09/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
5:44
10 Day trend β Strong signs of drier weather, but not just yet 11/03/20
Met Office
14/10/2024
8:57
10 Day Trend 08/05/2024 β Wet and windy weather returning - Met Office Weather Forecast
Met Office
08/05/2024
6:32
10 Day trend β Stuck in a rut? 19/02/20
Met Office
14/10/2024
6:09
10 Day trend β Staying changeable? 04/09/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
5:38
10 Day Trend β Drier weather on the horizon
Met Office
14/10/2024
6:58
10 Day trend β Cold next week? 04/12/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
9:34
10 Day Trend 20/11/2024 β Further snow and ice
Met Office
20/11/2024
5:53
10 Day trend β wet for some then colder for all 23/10/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
5:34
10 Day trend - Only slow changes in the final third of November 20/11/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
4:28
Week ahead β More rain to come but could the mercury be about to rise?
Met Office
14/10/2024
7:19
10 Day trend - A lively week and a half with some uncertainties 25/09/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
5:14
10 Day Trend β September sunshine and warmer weather? 11/09/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
2:43
Weekend weather - A big change on the way 16/01/20
Met Office
14/10/2024
3:28
Met Office Afternoom Weather Forecast 05/08/24 β Overall cloudy, rain along the west
Met Office
05/08/2024
12:33
10 Day Trend 14/08/2024 β How could Ernesto impact the UK? β Met Office weather forecast UK
Met Office
14/08/2024
10:19
10 Day Trend 06/11/2024 β High to dominate?
Met Office
06/11/2024
3:51
Week Ahead β Typical autumn weather 07/10/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
11:38
10 Day Trend 12/02/2025 β Whenβs it going to change?
Met Office
12/02/2025
6:07
10 Day trend β Any drier next week? 16/10/19
Met Office
14/10/2024
3:05
Met Office Thursday evening weather forecast 28/11/2024 - Some rain to start but clearer later
Met Office
28/11/2024
11:06
10 Day Trend 25/09/2024 β More rain, further flooding
Met Office
25/09/2024