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10 Day trend – Stuck in a rut? 19/02/20
Met Office
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14/10/2024
Is our weather stuck in a rut? Or, more precisely, are we currently subject to a repeating 7-day cycle in our weather patterns? Are there any signs of a change? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern looks at this week’s 10 Day Trend.
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00:00
Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. It's not good news, I'm afraid. During
00:06
the next 10 days, the strong signal is that we will continue to see low pressure after
00:11
low pressure after low pressure, bringing yet more wind and more rain. Each individual
00:17
event may not be as disruptive as the last two named storms, but we certainly don't want
00:23
any more rainfall across parts of the country where we are particularly sensitive at the
00:28
moment. What on earth is going on? Well, it's no coincidence that we had Storm Dennis last
00:34
weekend and Storm Kira the weekend before. The jet stream at the moment circling the
00:39
Northern Hemisphere has a certain wavelength, which means that we're stuck in a seven-day
00:45
cycle. What does that mean? Well, if you look back to around this time last week and this
00:50
time the week before, what we saw was a cold plunge. Arctic air coming south across Canada,
00:56
bumping into mild air across the Gulf of Mexico, and helping to fuel a vigorous jet stream.
01:02
And you can see the dark colours there, that powerful jet stream emanating out of North
01:06
America, which then helps to fuel areas of low pressure arriving in time for the weekend.
01:14
These lows are the low pressure systems that are arriving for Friday and this weekend to
01:19
bring some unsettled conditions. But this low coming along later, well, it starts off
01:26
on the warm side of the jet stream and then it switches to the cold side. And when that
01:31
happens, well, we really start to pay attention because that can help to spin it up into a
01:36
deep low and bring some disruptive weather, perhaps on Monday. More on that in a moment.
01:42
But by this stage, Monday, well, the strongest part of the jet stream eventually clears through.
01:47
Stays unsettled, yes, but at this time next week, well, what we're starting to see is
01:54
the first stages of another cold outbreak across Arctic Canada, potentially renewing
02:01
that seven-day cycle once again. In the immediate future though, well, our main concern is rainfall.
02:07
The start of Thursday sees more wet weather across southern Scotland, northern England,
02:11
parts of Wales and the south-west. Western Hills in particular are focused for the heaviest
02:16
rainfall. Yellow warnings in force because these areas do not need more rainfall. The
02:21
rain sweeps through after lunch and it's going to be particularly lively as it clears the
02:26
south-east of England. Some strong gusty winds and then a sharp temperature drop. Colder
02:30
air follows but with brighter skies and a few showers. Some lively downpours, hail and
02:35
thunder, snow over hills or even down to lower levels for northern and western Scotland,
02:40
certainly building up over the hills. And it will feel cold in the wind behind that
02:44
weather front. Fast forward to Friday and a reversal of conditions. We're going to see
02:49
milder air return, south-westerly winds strengthening through the day, wet weather pushing back
02:54
into Scotland, northern England and northern Ireland through daylight hours and again that
02:58
rainfall building up, each successive event building up across northern England. That's
03:03
an area of concern during the next few days because of that. It will also be windy, some
03:07
strong gusts particularly for south-east Scotland, north-east England, 65 mph perhaps as the
03:13
wind bounces over the hills. Eventually turning milder through Friday and largely dry for
03:18
southern half of the country until after dark. That's when this cold front does clear through,
03:25
bringing some rain for the start of the weekend. But by Saturday afternoon this is how it's
03:31
looking. Cold front's gone through and then we're back into bright spells and blustery
03:35
showers and again these showers in cold weather that follows will be falling as snow, mainly
03:40
over northern hills but perhaps again to lower levels for the north and the west of
03:43
Scotland, certainly building up over the hills but there will be some sunshine in between.
03:48
A strong gusty wind through Saturday for all areas but particularly in the far north. Feeling
03:54
cold in that wind but we're at the point where the cold air is bumping into the mild air
04:01
and if we trace that all the way back towards the Atlantic you can see, well first of all,
04:06
Monday's low starting to form on the warm side of the jet stream at this stage and then
04:11
just ahead of it just a small disturbance which starts to develop into an area of rainfall
04:17
and there's some uncertainty at this stage in terms of the line of attack of this but
04:22
it looks likely that the southern half of the country will see some wet and windy weather
04:25
for the start of Sunday. Again, yet more rain over western hills and risk of gales around
04:31
coastal areas. Further north likely to stay cold but in between there's the chance of
04:35
some hill snow where that rain bumps into the cold air but the exact position of the
04:40
rain at the moment opens doubt. Whatever happens it does clear and by Sunday afternoon most
04:46
places back into that cold, bright but showery airflow. Again, a windy day on Sunday, particularly
04:53
in southern parts of the country. Feeling cold in that wind as the front clears through
04:58
and then back to the jet stream, that powerful core of the jet stream crossing the country
05:02
and by this stage, this low is crossing to the other side of the jet stream, spinning
05:07
up into a potentially deep and disruptive area of low pressure and that will bring some
05:12
strong winds for virtually all places on Monday but the focus for the strongest winds most
05:18
likely to be the northwest. And some wet weather sweeping through, hopefully relatively quickly
05:25
but it's still a long way off so still a little uncertain. What happens after that, still
05:31
like I say, it's a long way off as we get into next week so too early to give specific
05:35
details on individual areas of low pressure but it looks likely that around the middle
05:39
of next week, Tuesday night into Wednesday, another low will come along carried by the
05:43
jet stream to bring yet more wind and rain. Fast forward to the end of next week and another
05:49
low on that conveyor belt pushing in to bring an unsettled end to next week and potentially
05:55
the following weekend. Too early to give specifics on these individual lows of course, suffice
06:01
to say next week is going to stay unsettled with the particular focus for the time being
06:07
on Monday staying very windy and potential for more rain. Mixed after that, no real sign
06:13
of change over the next 10 days so pay attention to the forecast and the warnings during the
06:18
next few days. Rain of course could cause problems and then wind for the start of next
06:24
week and beyond. And you can stay up to date by following the Met Office on social media,
06:28
heading to the website or downloading the app. Bye bye.
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