Week Ahead – Staying unsettled? 12/08/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

Following the wind and rain many places experienced during the weekend, will the weather remain unsettled this week? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the forecast.

Transcript

00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. It might be August, but

00:05it's going to feel more like autumn at times this week. Once again, it's a week in which

00:10we'll see showers at times, followed by bouts of wet weather, followed by further showers,

00:16and it will always be on the cool side. Now, not everyone likes the heat, but if you don't

00:21appreciate this kind of weather when you are on your summer holidays, for example, and

00:26you're fed up with the rainfall, don't blame me, blame the jet stream. That fast-flowing

00:30current of air high in the sky is currently to the south of the UK, allowing cool air

00:36in from the north, a similar pattern to recent August, it has to be said. And that jet stream,

00:42it's going to act like a conveyor belt, carrying in low pressure after low pressure through

00:47the next few days. The jet stream moving in from the Atlantic and picking up these areas

00:52of low pressure, developing them and bringing spells of rain, and at times, strengthening

00:58winds. This is Saturday's weather chart, and you can see low pressure centred over the

01:04UK. Still some question marks about this low, which I'll go into more in a moment, but certainly

01:10it does look like the cool, changeable weather is here to stay. A cool start to Tuesday,

01:14but don't despair, because over the next few days there will be some sunshine in between

01:18the showers, and you can see plenty of sunshine for eastern Britain at first on Tuesday, followed

01:23by showers developing, and then after a showery start in the west, the weather settles down.

01:28Wales in the south-west sees drier and brighter conditions by the end of the afternoon. Showers

01:34never too far away in most places though, and it will stay on the cool side, typically

01:3818 to 21 Celsius. However, there will be some sunshine on Tuesday, less so on Wednesday

01:47because this feature will move in from the south-west for Wednesday itself, and the start

01:52of Wednesday looks very unsettled for Wales and the south-west of England in particular.

01:57Strengthening winds, very wet weather for south Wales and the south-west of England

02:00at first, gales then developing across English Channel coasts, and the wet weather moving

02:04its way north-eastwards across the country, arriving eventually into north-east Scotland.

02:08After a chilly but bright start here, further west, it's going to be a bit more humid by

02:14the afternoon, and that humidity could spark some heavy, lively showers, particularly for

02:19say northern England. So all in all, an unsettled day on Wednesday, more rainfall to come in

02:24those areas that have seen plenty of it recently. But that low pressure does move away before

02:31the next low pressure makes an appearance further west. In between, at least on Thursday,

02:36a ridge of high pressure starts to build in, promising, well, something a little calmer,

02:41at least in some areas, for a day or so. Has to be said though, it will take some time

02:46for the showers across central and eastern Britain to die away on Thursday. Further west,

02:51that's where the brightest and driest weather will be on Thursday itself. Northern Ireland,

02:55western Scotland, Wales and the south-west, drying up, sunshine coming through, feeling

03:00pleasant enough, albeit with a fairly brisk breeze for southern parts of Britain. That's

03:06Thursday. Into Friday, however, well, the weather certainly will start to feel much

03:11more autumnal again. This depression coming along, it does look like something you'd more

03:18expect through September and October, but it's a reasonably straightforward feature

03:22in terms of predicting it. It's just a mature depression. It's gone through its deepening

03:28phase and it brings a spell of rain, and then strengthening winds for Friday. And that means

03:34it's a wet start to the day for Scotland, Northern Ireland, western parts of England

03:38and Wales, and you can see these brighter colours then moving into south Wales, south-west

03:42England, bringing some heavy rainfall once again here. Strengthening winds as well, and

03:47after a dry, bright start in the east, it turns wet towards the end of the day. Showers

03:51following on from the heavy rain further west. So an unsettled day to come on Friday. It's

03:57not going to be particularly pleasant if you're on your holidays, for example, but it's fairly

04:01straightforward to predict meteorologically. However, later Friday and into the weekend,

04:07that's when it becomes more uncertain. It certainly looks likely that this area of low

04:12pressure is going to dominate things through the weekend, after the heavy rain on Friday

04:17moves through, and the low pressure sticks around through Saturday and Sunday. However,

04:23this feature, a little fly in the ointment, adds some uncertainty for the weekend itself

04:28because some computer models want to push this feature, which is an area of heavy rain

04:33into northern France. Other computer models want to push it into England and Wales, and

04:38it's that which leads to some question marks in terms of our weather for the weekend. We're

04:45certainly likely to have this low pressure over northern Britain, but if this area of

04:48heavy rain moves northwards and engages with the jet stream and combines with this low,

04:54it could be very wet and windy indeed, especially across parts of England and Wales for the

04:59first half of the weekend. But what looks more likely to happen is the heavy rain will

05:04stay south, affect mainly northern France, and that for the UK itself, we'll see cool

05:10conditions remaining, blustery showers, but also some sunny spells in between the showers,

05:16and the weather not quite as bad as it was last weekend. Bear in mind, though, this is

05:21a few days away, and there is that low risk that it will be very wet and windy if that

05:26feature moves northwards. Instead of hitting northern France, it will hit England and Wales.

05:32So plenty to look out for over the next few days, plenty to stay up to date with over

05:37the next few days, and we will, of course, keep you updated right here at the Met Office.

Week Ahead – Staying unsettled? 12/08/19

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