Week Ahead – Very mild and, for some, very wet 25/10/21 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

Strong southwesterlies will bring very mild and, in some places, very wet weather this week. Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the Week Ahead forecast.

Transcript

00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. Strong winds from the

00:05south-west will dominate the weather across the UK this week. That means it will be very

00:10mild, particularly by night, but in some places it will also be very wet, especially towards

00:17the north-west of England, north Wales, parts of western Scotland. Having said that, it's

00:22going to be cold and dry to start the day in the south-east with some sunshine first

00:27morning, but here comes that south-westerly airflow, pushing a lot of cloud in from the

00:31Atlantic, pushing a spell of rain across northern parts of the UK first thing. Then it does

00:36dry up and brighten up in many places, but the rain stays persistent in the north-west

00:40of Scotland, some small amounts elsewhere. A lot of cloud cover, some breaks developing,

00:46some brighter spells, but this strong wind strengthening through the day, bouncing over

00:51the hills of the north to give some keen gusts across north-east England, south-east Scotland,

00:56but it's also reaching gale force by the evening for exposed parts of northern and

01:00western Scotland. So wet and windy in the north-west, 13 Celsius here, brighter but

01:05breezy further south, and mild, 16 or 17 Celsius. That mild airflow coming all the way from

01:13the subtropics, it's with us for the next few days at least, but it also contains a

01:17lot of moisture and a weather front which has waves in it, these ripples that provide

01:23a boost in the rain but also slow down the clearance of that front, so it just keeps

01:26pushing north through the next few days, bringing those more prolonged and heavier outbreaks

01:31of rain to north-western parts of the UK in particular. Having said that, it is going

01:36to be very mild. These are the temperatures by dawn on Wednesday, so Tuesday night, temperatures

01:42not falling much below 12 to 15 Celsius across the country. A grey start though for many,

01:48and a wet start. The rain in the north-west of Scotland having sunk into northern England

01:53and parts of north Wales overnight, it persists here through the day, and it looks likely

01:58that south-west Scotland could see as much as 60 millimetres in places at risk of flooding

02:04here, but more especially Cumbria will see those rainfall totals throughout Wednesday

02:10and the early part of Thursday really mount up. We're looking at 80 millimetres widely

02:14across Cumbria, 140 millimetres over some hills, and in one or two spots, 200 millimetres

02:19of rainfall, so risk of flooding from that rainfall warning in force. Brighter skies

02:25meanwhile for the north-west of Scotland, some showers here. Northern Ireland's seeing

02:28rain come and go, particularly later on, but further south across much of the rest of Wales

02:33and much of the rest of England, brighter spells. We've still got that strong wind,

02:37but it's coming from the south-west, so 18 Celsius possible in the south-east, a bit

02:41cooler there, where we've got some brighter weather in the north-west of Scotland. Actually,

02:46much of Scotland and northern Ireland doing OK on Thursday with some bright spells, a

02:50few showers into the west of Scotland and parts of northern Ireland, beautiful sunny

02:53skies for the northern isles, but for much of western England, much of Wales as well,

02:58we'll see those outbreaks of rain push their way south, and so a wet day to come there

03:02for south-west England and south Wales in particular. Some concerns there, given the

03:07ground is fairly saturated following last week's rain, brighter still across east Anglia

03:12and the south-east with 17 Celsius once again on the cards. The weather front then pushes

03:18north once again, another one of these waves increasing the activity on it and keeping

03:24it from clearing properly across the UK, so it looks likely on Friday, although some details

03:29are uncertain at this stage in terms of the location of the heavier rain, it looks most

03:33likely that it's parts of western England and Wales where we'll see further spells of

03:37rain through the day. Drier and brighter again, east Anglia and the south-east, and again

03:42mild, and we've got those showers once more for north-west Scotland and northern Ireland

03:47with some sunshine in between, but it's in the middle where we're likely to see further

03:51heavy and persistent rain that could cause problems by Friday. As we end the week, no

03:57sign of that front making a real significant clearance, you can see a few more waves on

04:02it and really it's because it's travelling on the jet stream like this and the jet stream

04:06diving to the south of the UK and so we're right in the development zone of this jet

04:11stream and that is of concern for the weekend because any one of these weather fronts could

04:16develop into an area of low pressure during Saturday and Sunday and bring potentially

04:21some disruptive wind and rain with it, so certainly something we'll be watching closely

04:26over the next few days and we'll keep you updated right here at the Met Office, you

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Week Ahead – Very mild and, for some, very wet 25/10/21

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