Week ahead - A big change on the way 16/03/20 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

A big change of weather is expected by the end of this week, as Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explains.

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00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. Big changes in the weather

00:05during the upcoming week compared to the relentless westerly winds and outbreaks of rain we've

00:10seen during the last few weeks and months. It's a transition through the next few days.

00:16We keep the rain at first, especially in the north, but then it's in the north where high

00:19pressure builds from the middle of the week and it starts to dry up. Settled conditions

00:24arriving countrywide by the end of the week, but it also turns colder. Just as winter

00:31is coming to an end, we're likely to see a return to much colder conditions. Not at first

00:36of course. Across England and Wales on Tuesday it's looking reasonably warm. It could be

00:40the warmest day of the year so far. But fast forward to Saturday and you can see a marked

00:45contrast. High pressure at places low, but around that high we're going to see these

00:49blues arrive. Probably won't be as dramatic as it appears here because of course we're

00:54gaining strength in the sun and it will be largely sunny across the country by the weekend.

01:00It will just feel cold in that easterly wind. Back to Tuesday then and it's a chilly start

01:06for the far north of Scotland. But elsewhere, weather fronts are moving back in and they

01:12will bring cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain. A few showers for northern and western Scotland

01:17first thing Tuesday, perhaps some snow over the higher ground. But then it turns more

01:21widely wet for northern Ireland, much of Scotland by the afternoon and into the far north of

01:25England. Drips and drabs of rain for parts of Wales and western England. A lot of cloud

01:29cover here compared to Monday. But some sunny spells remaining for say London and southern

01:35and southeastern parts of England. However, it is mild across England and Wales. Drawing

01:41up this mild air from the south west, 14, 15, perhaps even 16, 17 in some favoured spots

01:47north east Wales into south Yorkshire, parts of the midlands. South west England given

01:52enough sunshine. But a different story for Scotland and northern Ireland. Here it's cold,

01:57it's wet, snow over hills and there's a strong wind blowing through the Irish Sea and up

02:02the Solway Firth. Tuesday night we're going to see these weather fronts clear through,

02:07turning clearer for Scotland and northern Ireland. But cloudy conditions for England

02:11and Wales and a few outbreaks of rain as well. The rain not quite as heavy as we can

02:16expect across Scotland and northern Ireland. But nevertheless, a damp start to the day

02:20on Wednesday across much of England and Wales. The rain gradually becomes confined to southern

02:24counties by Wednesday afternoon. Brighter skies elsewhere, some sunshine but blustery

02:30showers northern and western Scotland. Gales around exposed coasts and some snow over the

02:34higher ground. Perhaps some sleet and hail at lower levels. It will feel cold across

02:39northern parts of the country and certainly temperatures dropping away elsewhere. Not

02:42as warm as Tuesday, 11 to 13 degrees. This weather front though, it's a bit of a trouble

02:49maker. It's going to lurk in the channel through much of Thursday and it's likely to just nudge

02:54a bit of extra cloud and some rain back into the south west for Thursday itself. A drizzly

02:59grey sort of day for south west England, perhaps other southern counties of England as well.

03:04Brighter skies north of the M4 generally, some sunshine but further showers in the far north

03:11and north western. Temperatures continue to drop away day by day, talking about 7 to 9 degrees

03:17in the north, more like 9 to 11 further south. Certainly feeling cold in the wind for northern

03:24and western Scotland. High pressures trying to elbow in for Thursday night and into Friday,

03:29but by this stage there's a lot of uncertainty about the behaviour of this weather front. We've

03:34just can't get rid of it. Now, different computer models are saying different things

03:38about the position of this weather front for Friday itself. Most of the models keep it

03:43away from the UK, but some of them push it back into southern counties of England. So

03:48the most likely outcome for Friday is that it's a frosty start and there'll be plenty

03:53of sunshine, a bit more cloud coming into eastern counties of Scotland, eastern parts

03:58of England as well, perhaps a few showers and again these will be rain or hail at lower

04:03levels, perhaps some snow over the hills. However, if that minority of computer models

04:09are correct, and there's a 20% chance that they are, then we'll see outbreaks of rain

04:15returning into southern counties of England and south Wales, but that's a minority outcome.

04:20It looks more likely that widely it'll be dry and bright. It's just something we've

04:24got to keep an eye on for the end of the week. Whatever happens, that high pressure is here

04:29to stay for the weekend and even if we do keep some rain in the far south, that's out

04:33of the way by Saturday and for most of the country, that high pressure means that it's

04:38dry, it's bright and there's a lot of fine weather. There'll still be some showers coming

04:44into north sea counties, but otherwise, for many places, plenty of sunny spells through

04:49the weekend, feeling pleasant in the sunshine, but feeling cold in that east wind. Certainly

04:55frosty conditions returning by night by the end of the week. You can keep up to date,

05:00of course, as always, by following us on social media. Bye bye.

Week ahead - A big change on the way 16/03/20

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