Week ahead 10/10/22 – Winds returning later – Met Office UK Weather Forecast - video Dailymotion

Met Office

A quiet start to the week with some chilly mornings before the jet stream ramps up again later this week, bringing a return to wet and windy weather.   Bringing you this forecast for the week ahead is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.

Transcript

00:00Hello. The first week of October was a wet week for Western Scotland. Some areas saw

00:05close to their October rainfall average in just a week or so. Now over the last few days

00:10it's become less wet as a ridge of high pressure has built from the south-west but we've still

00:14seen showers coming into the north-west and they'll continue on Monday night. Elsewhere

00:17with that ridge of high pressure, light winds, clear skies, we start off Tuesday fairly chilly

00:23actually across parts of England, Wales, into southern Scotland, perhaps eastern Scotland

00:27as well. Low single figures in places, perhaps even in one or two spots, a touch of air frost.

00:33But after that chilly start actually plenty of sunshine for England, Wales, into southern

00:36and eastern Scotland. A different story for Western Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland,

00:40cloudier skies here and some showers. Those showers in places turning to more persistent

00:45spells of rain as the rain clouds gather towards the north-west during Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere

00:51there'll be one or two showers, perhaps for the Pennines but otherwise for much of England

00:54and Wales it's a bright afternoon with further sunny spells and with light winds 16 Celsius

01:00will feel quite pleasant. 13 or 14 for Scotland and Northern Ireland, a little bit milder

01:04compared with Monday but with I think more cloud in the sky and a freshening south-westerly

01:08it may not feel like that's the case. Now the outbreaks of rain are arriving ahead of

01:14this weather front. It's a cold front, it's not going to bring a huge amount of rainfall

01:17but it does mark the boundary between generally quieter weather and a more active jet stream

01:22which will dominate things from mid-week onwards and more on the jet stream in just

01:27a moment. But we start off Wednesday with outbreaks of rain heavy at times for Western

01:31Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing into northern and western England as well as Wales.

01:36The weather front slices the country in two, you can see all the cloud associated with

01:40it there but the rain tends to fizzle into showers and I think it'll stay largely dry

01:44in the south-east through Wednesday with sunny spells and brightening skies for Scotland

01:48and Northern Ireland as well. 13 to 15 Celsius here, 16 or 17 ahead of the weather front

01:53but not feeling as warm in the cloudier zone in between. The front does eventually weaken

02:00and disappear, runs into the high pressure ahead of it and a little ridge of high pressure

02:04follows it for clear skies on Thursday as we start the day on Thursday. But, well, waiting

02:11in the wings, two areas of low pressure and an active jet stream. Fairly unusual pattern

02:19emerges around Thursday with two streams joining together out in the mid-Atlantic with this

02:26jet stream and then that interacts with these two areas of low pressure. And when we've

02:31got all these different features interacting with each other, well, inevitably there will

02:35be some uncertainty in terms of the details for later this week because some computer

02:40models reckon that this area of low pressure will be picked up by the jet stream and deepen

02:45as it pushes to the north of the UK. Other computer models want to deepen this area of

02:48low pressure and this trailing weather front also is subject to some uncertainty in terms

02:55of how it runs an area of rain along the south of the UK on Friday or Saturday. So these

03:01different elements lead to some uncertainty in the details but the overall theme is pretty

03:06clear. We're going to see low pressure towards the north and north-west of the UK at the

03:10end of this week. We're going to see tight isobars. We're going to see wet and windy

03:13weather and quite a number of showers. So these areas of low pressure interacting in

03:19a fairly complicated way with this jet stream which comes together as two streams into one

03:25and as a result we can't put precise values on the wind speed and location of rainfall

03:31but what we can say is that Thursday at least will start off cold and bright. A touch of

03:36air frost for Scotland, parts of northern England. Sunny spells at first and we keep

03:40the largely dry and bright weather in the east at least into the afternoon. 14 or 15

03:46Celsius here but then the rain arrives in the west. This area of rain could be heavy

03:51at times especially towards the south-west by the afternoon and perhaps the north-west

03:55as well and as that rain moves in all areas are going to get a bit of a soaking and the

04:01winds will pick up as well but it's going to turn milder as well as that wind picks

04:05up. Now it's behind this rain that the low approach is quite close and that's when the

04:11winds really pick up. So Friday looks like a windier day. It's also going to be brighter.

04:15There'll be some sunny spells but quite a number of showers are going to move in on

04:19that wind which could be reaching gale force across northern parts of the UK especially

04:23around exposed coasts and hills. Of course that's going to make it feel cool. The showers

04:27will be heavy and frequent as well so a lively day is expected. Fewer showers further south

04:32but I think here there is that risk of a more prolonged spell of rain for a time although

04:37of course we do need the rain in the south and the south-east in particular. Now all

04:42of this will be accompanied by those strong winds so a blustery day for all and you can

04:46see how the isobars are tightly packed together as we start off the weekend. So even though

04:51there are some uncertainties in terms of the details about these areas of low pressure

04:54and where they'll be positioned and their shape and so on, I think something roughly

04:59like this will occur at the start of the weekend. Low pressure to the north, tight isobars,

05:03a brisk westerly airflow and a number of showers for many especially towards the west. So an

05:09unsettled period coming up with that active jet stream. Of course we'll pin down those

05:14details over the next few days and you can stay across all of those on social media.

Week ahead 10/10/22 – Winds returning later – Met Office UK Weather Forecast

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