10 Day trend - Storm Dennis, then what? 12/02/20 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

Storm Dennis hits the UK this weekend, bringing several days of wind and rain to much of the UK. How much longer can it stay unsettled? Met Office Meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. The volatile, boisterous British weather

00:05continues for the time being and over the next 10 days, little sign of a significant

00:10let-up in conditions. There'll be more wind and rain with a particular focus on Storm

00:15Dennis through Saturday to Monday. Then it turns less stormy next week but there'll still

00:22be unsettled weather around. There's a number of low-pressure systems lined up to arrive

00:29over the next few days. There's one here to come in for Thursday, one here to come in

00:33on Friday. Those are not Storm Dennis. Storm Dennis is third in the queue, still just a

00:40tiny small-scale feature forming off the coast of the US on Wednesday. Our focus in the immediate

00:46term is this low which moves in on Wednesday night and pushes in against very cold air

00:52with minus 12 degrees possible across northern Scotland, bringing mild air to the rest of

00:58the country but also wind and rain gales around southern and western coasts, blustery

01:02showers and as the rain pushes into southern Scotland, northern England, northern Ireland,

01:08first thing Thursday, risk of snow over the higher ground, particularly for parts of southern

01:13Scotland. A few centimetres could cause disruption first part of the day. It all eases away.

01:18Cold but bright for northern Scotland, northern Ireland eventually. Cold and grey for southern

01:23Scotland, north-east England. Blustery showers elsewhere, some lively downpours especially

01:27around south-western districts, mild in the south, 10 or 11 Celsius. Fast forward to Friday,

01:33a cold bright start for many, doesn't last long, turns cloudy through the day. Wind and

01:39rain return to north-western and eventually western parts of the country. Some snow over

01:43the Scottish mountains but mainly this is a rain event and risk of flooding over the

01:49higher ground of southern Scotland in particular because of the rainfall and some snow melt.

01:54So it turns unsettled from the west through Friday. As I say, this is the second area

01:58of low pressure and it's still not Storm Dennis. That moves through, bringing some rain to

02:03southern parts of the country as we end the working week. By this stage, Storm Dennis

02:07is developing quite significantly, powered along by a very strong jet stream. You can

02:14see the dark colours there, the straight line jet stream firing it towards the UK and it

02:19deepens into a particularly deep area of low pressure, perhaps around 915 millibars which

02:24isn't particularly common in the Atlantic. And look how long it sticks around for. This

02:29is Saturday into Sunday, Storm Dennis still to the north of the UK. And through later

02:35Sunday into Monday, Storm Dennis hanging around like a bad smell and it's still with us as

02:41we start next week. The close ice bars through Saturday, Sunday and Monday, bringing strong

02:46winds for three days, if not slightly longer. So let's look at the winds. Now there are

02:54some differences when you compare Storm Dennis this weekend with Storm Ciara last weekend.

03:00The winds will still be strong widely across the country as we start off the weekend. Weather

03:05warnings in force for England, Wales, southern Scotland where the winds will be strongest

03:10during Saturday. Risk of gusts inland of 50 miles an hour and around exposed coasts of

03:1560, perhaps 70 miles an hour could cause disruption. But those winds are a notch down compared to

03:20Storm Ciara of last weekend. So don't expect an exact repeat of last weekend across England

03:26and Wales. Now through Sunday, our attention turns a bit more to parts of northwest Scotland

03:31into Northern Ireland where by now there's a wind warning because tight ice bars there

03:36as Storm Dennis starts to swing round and approach from the northwest. Now some uncertainty

03:41by this stage and into Monday about exactly how tight these ice bars will be and whether

03:47there are small scale low pressure systems that develop as well to bring an even stronger

03:51swathe of winds into parts of say the central belt of Scotland. And it's by Monday that

03:56the strongest winds will be across northern parts of the UK, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

04:00Elsewhere the winds beginning to ease, but essentially it's windy for three days. Risk

04:04of gales, risk of disruption. But the rain is of particular concern as well with Storm

04:11Dennis. Now the wet weather sets in across all parts on Saturday. The heaviest rain will

04:16be over western hills, some let up there with blustery showers for northern areas through

04:21Saturday night. But by Sunday another swathe of heavy rainfall potentially pushes back

04:26into much of England and Wales. And it's over the higher ground of western Scotland, western

04:31parts of England as well as Wales where the wettest weather will be. Falling onto saturated

04:35ground 40 mils widely, 80 mils plus over the higher ground. Risk of flooding because of

04:42the persistence and the heaviness of that rainfall Saturday through to Sunday. So wet

04:47and windy weekend, multitude of things going on with the weather. It's not going to be

04:52a repeat of Storm Ciara but nevertheless some disruption is likely due to the winds and

04:58of course that risk of flooding. Any signs of the weather settling down at all? Well

05:03once Dennis moves away, middle of next week, high pressure starts to ridge in from the

05:09south but only slightly. We're still likely to see these tight isobars, we're still likely

05:13to see showers through Wednesday and the start of Thursday, especially across western areas

05:18with snow over the hills. So some sunshine, some drier weather for a time, middle of next

05:24week but another low appears by the end of next week to bring yet more wind and rain.

05:30So days 7 to 10, sun and showers, drier, slightly quieter interlude, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

05:38and then yet more wind and rain. But it looks like when that arrives end of next week it

05:44probably won't be quite as stormy as Ciara or as Dennis. So the unsettled weather continues

05:51but hopefully a let up in the disruptive conditions through next week. Before that happens of

05:56course stay up to date with the latest weather forecasts and latest weather warnings and

06:01the best way to do that is by following the Met Office on social media, heading to the

06:05website and of course downloading the app because there's an awful lot of weather happening

06:09during the next few days.

10 Day trend - Storm Dennis, then what? 12/02/20

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