10 Day trend - November rain? 30/10/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

It’s been a wet October so far for some parts of the UK but the closing few days of the month, at least, have brought a more settled spell to many areas. But will the wind and rain return for November? Met Office meteorologist Aidan has the details.

Transcript

00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend, a 10-day period that includes Halloween,

00:04bonfire night and the start of a new month.

00:08The crisp autumn sunshine of the week so far may be a distant memory by this time next

00:13week because during the next 10 days the weather turns unsettled, particularly so during the

00:17weekend, a high blustery weekend to come.

00:21And it will stay changeable into next week, albeit perhaps less lively compared to this

00:25coming weekend.

00:27So far this week has been dominated by high pressure, sunny days and frosty nights for

00:31most of the UK, but the jet stream out to the west has been trying to nudge weather

00:36systems our way and it has made some progress by pushing weather fronts into the south-west

00:42of England.

00:43Here we've had a couple of days of rain compared to the rest of the country under the sunnier

00:48skies.

00:49But the weather front will make a little bit further progress into Wednesday evening and

00:53as it pushes against the high pressure the isobars will tighten, it will turn increasingly

00:57windy so for Wednesday night a wet and windy night to come for Cornwall, Devon, Somerset,

01:02Dorset, parts of South Wales as well, but it's the south-west moors and coasts where

01:06we'll see the heaviest rain and the strongest winds, gales in exposed coastal areas.

01:12Staying mild here with all of that going on, but further north a frosty one for Scotland,

01:16northern England, temperatures in some sheltered glens down to minus five or minus six degrees.

01:22But by Thursday afternoon beautiful sunshine once again for Scotland, northern and eastern

01:26England as well.

01:28Meanwhile, a lot of cloud further west, but the rain and the wind has largely disappeared

01:32from the south-west and it's a little bit milder here, 13, perhaps 14 Celsius, stays

01:39fairly crisp elsewhere.

01:41Some of you might be out trick or treating into Thursday evening and the good news is

01:45most places will be dry, but there will be some mist and low cloud creeping into western

01:50parts of the country, western Scotland, northern Ireland, Wales and the south-west where later

01:55on it will turn wetter.

01:58That rain, courtesy of the weather fronts that are finally nibbling away at the high

02:03pressure and breaking the seal, spreading in for Friday, this is the day when we replace

02:08high pressure with low and unsettled weather sweeps across the whole of the country.

02:13So this is how it looks during Friday.

02:15It's just rain or outbreaks of rain spreading across the country, not wet all the time,

02:20but it's a dull, damp one and with a lot of low cloud and mist as the milder Atlantic

02:26comes in over cold ground and is milder, 15, 16 Celsius by Friday afternoon.

02:33What's causing this change?

02:35Well we have to go back to the current time, Wednesday, to see what's happening with the

02:39jet stream and at the moment the jet stream is being diverted around the UK because of

02:44the high pressure in place acting like a stone in a stream.

02:50But you'll notice out to the west over North America a much powerful part of the jet stream

02:56is starting to emerge and this is due to significant temperature contrasts, a big cold plunge over

03:03North America coming up against very warm air across say Florida and the south-east

03:09of the US and that temperature contrast then fuels an active jet stream and it's this

03:14portion of the jet stream which we can follow during Wednesday and into Thursday exits

03:19North America and then it pushes away all of this wobbly jet stream and it digs in across

03:25the UK.

03:26That then acts like a conveyor belt.

03:29It spins up areas of low pressure and sends them our way, in fact running through quickly

03:34Saturday and Sunday you can see how the jet stream just picks up low after low after low

03:38after low and pushes them into the UK and by Sunday it's just a mess.

03:43It's almost as if you're juggling four balls, you're trying to predict which one will land

03:49where and that becomes very difficult when we're talking about four or five days ahead.

03:55Suffice to say the weekend is unsettled, it's messy, there'll be wind and rain but not for

03:59everyone all the time.

04:01This is how Saturday looks, there'll be some wet weather pushing east and then lingering

04:05across north-eastern parts of the country along with a strong wind.

04:08Further south, bright spells, yeah, some showers coming in from the west and so it's not

04:13all a washout but there will be some gusty winds and some heavy showers around 11, 13

04:20degrees temperatures above average into Saturday night.

04:23It could become very lively as this area of low pressure spins up and spreads across southern

04:27parts of the country.

04:28Not good news if you're attending fireworks displays on Saturday nights but timings are

04:34tricky to predict at the moment.

04:35There will certainly be gaps in between these low pressure systems in case of paying close

04:39attention to the weather forecast.

04:41By Sunday another low spins up, heads towards England and Wales, meanwhile these low pressure

04:46systems are slow moving across the north-east of the country.

04:48There could be some prolonged wet weather for north-east Scotland, north-east England,

04:52something we'll keep an eye on over the next few days.

04:55But you'll notice gaps in between the weather systems, it's not a washout, there will be

04:58some sunny weather in between, 11, 12 degrees, temperatures not far from average.

05:04Now into the start of next week, the low pressure does move away, uncertainties with different

05:08computer models saying different things about how quickly it will move away.

05:12Some of them say that it will move away quite quickly and we'll have a dig of particularly

05:17cold Arctic air Tuesday, Wednesday.

05:21But more computer models suggest that the next low will move in before that happens.

05:26And so the weather's settling down for a time early next week, perhaps a bit of a chill

05:30for a day or two, but then we're back to low pressure moving in courtesy of the jet stream.

05:36The most likely position for the low pressure for the middle of next week is out to the

05:40west of the UK and it's, by this stage you'll notice the jet stream's to the south of the

05:45UK and it's quite amplified compared to the weekend.

05:49That means these low pressure systems will be slower moving and this is the end of next

05:53week, it's not moved far, it's likely to bring more rain to Wales and the south-west, not

05:58great news here, but longer, drier interludes elsewhere perhaps.

06:02Now with the jet stream to the south of the UK, temperatures will remain below average.

06:07So next week, yeah, unsettled, not quite as windy, not quite as boisterous as the weekend

06:12and it will continue to feel cold.

06:14We'll have the details as and when we get them of course and you can follow us on social

06:17media to find out the latest.

10 Day trend - November rain? 30/10/19

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