10 Day trend – record-breaking heat, then what? 24/07/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

Truly exceptional heat hits the UK on Thursday, probably breaking temperature records. But what happens next? Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern has the 10 Day Trend.

Transcript

00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. Never mind 10 days, all everyone's

00:05talking about at the moment is the next one day. Truly exceptional heat coming along for

00:09Thursday, record-breaking heat. And then the inevitable thundery breakdown Thursday night

00:14into Friday and in some places continuing through the weekend. Now, those thunderstorms

00:18eventually will lead to fresher air arriving from the west heading into the start of next

00:25week. More comfortable, I should imagine, for some people, because this will be far

00:30from comfortable. Oppressive heat and humidity rising northwards across the whole of the

00:36UK virtually on Thursday, just escaping Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. You can see

00:42the reds there, record-breaking heat on its way. Temperatures rising quickly as that hot

00:49air arrives on Thursday morning. Long spells of sunshine as well. Just a bit more cloud

00:55there for Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. The far south-west, one or two spots of rain.

00:59Showers and thunderstorms starting to break out there across parts of Wales and the north-west

01:02of England. But temperatures on the whole are rising, and they're rising really significantly.

01:0929, 30 Celsius south of Scotland, and then widely into the 30s across much of England,

01:14east Wales as well, mid-30s across much of the heart of England, and the headline number

01:20there for London, 39 degrees, breaking the July record for the UK. And there's a 70%

01:26chance that we'll get above 38.5, so that would give us the UK all-time record. The

01:3330% chance that we won't beat it is down to the fact that there could be some cloud around

01:38that could stop the temperature from rising so quickly. However, it is likely to be a

01:43record-breaking day, and with that heat and that humidity, we're going to see thunderstorms

01:48soon developing, especially across eastern parts of the country into Thursday night,

01:53clearing away first thing Friday. Frequent lightning, hail, gusty winds as well. Another

01:57lively night to come in places. Further west, it's a lot quieter. Sunny spells breaking

02:02out through Friday, but we're behind now a cold front, and that cold front means that

02:09it's going to start to feel more comfortable across western parts of Britain. That cold

02:14front won't quite reach the east of England. North-east Scotland here, temperatures into

02:18the high 20s again, and still the possibility of 33 degrees or possibly higher across east

02:25Anglia. You can see the considerable difference further west. And it's the slowing down of

02:30this cold front that is causing a few headaches here at the Met Office at the moment, because

02:35it then starts to cause trouble into the weekend. Along this cold front, we'll see outbreaks

02:40of heavy thundery rainfall, but you can see it doesn't move very far very fast. Into the

02:45start of the weekend, it really slows down. In fact, it comes to a grinding halt across

02:50northern and eastern Britain as it meets this beast, this huge anticyclone across Scandinavia.

02:57Not only is it a large area of high pressure, but it contains with it all of that heat that

03:02we're going to see over the next couple of days. And as that cold front pushes into that

03:08heat dome, well, it's not going to move very far. In fact, because it slows down, it's

03:15increasingly difficult to predict through the weekend. The jet stream's not going to

03:18move it along. That dives to the south. And so that means that we're paying close attention

03:24to this area of cloud and rain across northern and eastern Britain on Saturday. Some areas

03:28seeing a very wet day indeed, some heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain, particularly for

03:32Scotland, northern England, parts of eastern England, further south-west, Wales, the south-west

03:36of England, northern Ireland, sunny spells and actually feeling quite pleasant with temperatures

03:41around average. The temperature's considerably lower where it's raining though, some 15 degrees

03:46lower compared to Thursday. Spot the difference by Sunday, the weather front's still there,

03:51still bringing rain to more or less the same affected areas. Outbreaks of rain on and off

03:57through Sunday, perhaps further thunderstorms. Again, driest, brightest across south-western

04:02areas. But this position of the weather front, don't take it too literally, and I'll show

04:06you why. Looking at the combined rainfall totals through Saturday and Sunday from three

04:12different computer projections, the UK model, the European model and the American model.

04:17And you can see the brighter colours there indicating those areas most likely to have

04:20a wet weekend. They're in just slightly different positions. Not a tremendous difference, but

04:26depending on where you are, it will make a difference to you on the ground. Now, the

04:30UK model has it a little bit further west, western Scotland, into northern England, east

04:34Anglia. The American model has it much further east, northeast Scotland, North Sea. The European

04:40model, the most likely outcome at the moment, we reckon, central and southern Scotland,

04:45parts of eastern England, seeing a wet weekend, driest further west. So, tricky to predict

04:52exactly where the heaviest and most prolonged rainfall will be through the weekend. But

04:56either way, that weather front tends to peter out into the start of next week. It's going

05:01to be increasingly affected by the high pressure to the east, and it will just become an area

05:05of showers moving away to northern Scotland. Meanwhile, the jet stream to our west starts

05:11to pick up areas of low pressure. And into Tuesday, into Wednesday, this is the most

05:18likely position for the low pressure from the Atlantic to appear. Now, don't be too

05:23worried about it. It doesn't look. It's going to be a lot less bad than it looks, is what

05:29I'm trying to say. That low pressure will move in, carrying with it outbreaks of rain

05:34and showers, but eventually just fizzling out as it meets the high pressure to the east.

05:40And then by the end of next week, this is the most likely outcome, something of a no-man's

05:47land across the UK, low pressure somewhere to the west, high pressure somewhere to the

05:50east, light winds, a bit of rain in the north-west of the UK, but many places dry with sunshine,

05:58one or two showers, and temperatures rising. And if the winds point from the right direction,

06:04we could bring in hot air again much later next week. So, to summarise, certainly we're

06:12not looking like record-breaking temperatures after this Thursday. For at least a week or

06:17so, it's going to be considerably fresher. There'll be some rain in to next week and

06:22showers, particularly Tuesday, Wednesday. Then it turns warmer and drier in many places.

06:27So although it's not going to be exceptional heat and humidity next week, summer is far

06:32from over. And of course, you can find much more details. You can keep up-to-date with

06:36all the latest by following us on social media. Bye-bye.

10 Day trend – record-breaking heat, then what? 24/07/19

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