10 Day trend - Showers never too far away but a spell of hot weather likely in south 31/07/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

Clare Nasir has the details in this week's 10 Day trend.

Transcript

00:00Hello there and welcome to the 10-day trend. It's Wednesday the 31st of July.

00:04I've looked at the charts for the next 10 days and pretty much in a nutshell

00:08from today the current indications are we'd like to see some showery bursts of

00:12rain coming and going, some drier interludes as well, warm or even warm air

00:17coming up from the south. The bigger picture over the next few days, this low

00:21pressure which has brought the thunderstorms clears off the scene

00:23through the next 24 hours, then a ridge comes up from the south and that means a

00:26quieter day come Friday and some warmth slowly moving in as well. The system is

00:32quite slack so if you catch a shower it could last a while but many areas will

00:36be dry. Now through Thursday you can see those showers just still clipping the

00:40eastern side of England and some showers developing inland could be heavy across

00:45Scotland. Temperatures typically climbing into the 20s if not the mid-20s. The best

00:49of the weather towards the west where we will see some sunshine and that's the

00:53situation on Friday as well. Again a few showers, this is global model data so

00:59it's not representing the showers so finely but we are like to see a

01:02scattering of showers through the afternoon. One or two perhaps likely

01:06further west but even so a mostly dry scenario here and temperatures slightly

01:10higher, we should see 25 in the south, 18 or 19 across the far north of Scotland.

01:16So that's a picture on Friday. Let's just have a look at the upper level winds, the

01:21jet stream winds and this is an upper low here. So this area of low pressure

01:25and this area of winds, strong winds, jet stream winds indicates to us that we're

01:31seeing an exit here. The core winds slow down and diverge and what that means we

01:37could see enhanced rainfall through Sunday into Monday across the southwestern

01:41quadrant of the country. All in all this low stays where it is for a few days and

01:46it does mean the surface low will be with us as well. We're close by to the

01:50west of the UK so here's your low, this is surface level here. Bands of rain

01:55circulating around it and for Saturday into Sunday yes we'll continue to see a

01:59feed of those showers just moving in from the west. However subtle changes,

02:03some warmth slowly moves across from the south as well. We could see some high

02:08temperatures particularly on Sunday. Through Saturday a mostly dry start, one

02:12or two showers lurking around. You can see this is the low towards the west

02:16there. We see these bands of showers creeping in from the west. It will be a

02:20slow process. Some areas getting away with a dry day and also a sunny day.

02:25Temperatures typically 23-24 degrees Celsius but there's an increasing

02:30likelihood we will see some showers moving in from the west particularly

02:33towards the southwest and west through the day. Now come Sunday it's going to be

02:38a very warm start. These are your lows through the early hours of Sunday

02:41morning. It will be a dry start across many, maybe some mist and fog patches

02:45before bands of showers continue their passage further east. But look at this,

02:50temperatures well above average for this time of year yet again. It's going to

02:54feel quite humid as well across the country. So typical temperatures across

02:57many areas will be into the 20s if not the mid-20s and in the southeast we

03:02could see a 28 or 29. There's a good confidence for the weather as it evolves

03:07through the next week. Low pressure never too far away but it will be warm for

03:12particularly through the first part of the week. Now here are your meteorograms

03:15for Birmingham and Glasgow through the next few days into next week. This

03:20represents the maximum temperature, the lower temperature, the minimum

03:23temperature but also the upper and lower bounds, how much confidence we have in

03:28those temperatures. And as you can see for Birmingham as well as for Glasgow,

03:32the mean which is just there, even into next week we are above the average for

03:38this time of year. The air is warm, in fact exceptionally warm through Sunday

03:43into Monday for Birmingham as well as for Glasgow as well. Well above the

03:47average and that's how it hovers through into the middle part of the week. It does

03:51mean also we are likely to see some warm and quite sweaty nights. So it's not

03:55going to be cool despite the fact there is showers or rain in the forecast. Now

04:00come Monday again we're likely to see bands of showers moving across the

04:04country in between some sunshine. It's not going to be a washout but certainly

04:08we will always see those showers never too far away but some sunshine coming

04:12through as well and temperatures again very warm indeed and again rather muggy.

04:17However we look to the southwest to see where our weather's coming from and this

04:21is what I was talking about earlier. This is a pulse of quite heavy rain which

04:25actually could push up towards the southwestern quadrants of the country

04:28through Monday into Tuesday. So it's worth noting through the beginning of

04:33the working week next week we could see some heavy pulses across that part of

04:38the country. The midweek set up looks pretty much like this and this pattern

04:43we've seen again and again through the summer with a low pressure towards the

04:47west or northwest and a high just trying to push in from the south. Certainly

04:51across the continent temperatures above average. These are the anomalies so

04:55these are temperatures above what the mean should be. So two degrees for

04:59Iberia, 1.5 degrees across much of France and just above average for much

05:05of England and Wales and Ireland but towards the northwest of the country

05:09temperatures typically around average and closer to the low. So we're expecting

05:14the synoptic pattern to be similar to this with a chance as I said of some

05:19showers. So through Thursday you can see the low still sits there but the weather

05:24looks like it will wane from dry to showers. However if we head down towards

05:29the tropical Atlantic we can see some easterly waves moving in or propagating

05:35across from Africa. These are precursors to typical tropical cyclone development

05:40through the summer months and I've had a look at the National Hurricane Center's

05:44data and analysis into the weekend and looking very closely at this little

05:49system here which could develop into a tropical cyclone. If it does

05:55there's a chance it will track across and move up the eastern seaboard of the

06:01country and with that these are the probabilities of where it will be

06:05through next week and you can see it's pushing up towards the northeast. If that

06:11happens then there's a good chance that we will see low pressure further away

06:17and a ridge of high pressure toppling in and moving up towards the UK bringing

06:22with it some higher temperatures. So there's a small chance at the moment we

06:25could see this set up. It's interesting to look at that there are other

06:29scenarios but all in all at the moment yes we'd like to see some warmer air.

06:33Obviously keep you posted here at the Met Office. This is well eight or nine

06:38days ahead but for the time being this is what you should expect as we head

06:43through the weekend and into the first part of next week. It's warm or very warm

06:47perhaps even hot for the southeast for a time. Showers never too far away but we

06:51will see some sunshine as well. That's all from me, I'll see you later.

10 Day trend - Showers never too far away but a spell of hot weather likely in south 31/07/19

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