10 day trend – A cooler few days and nights ahead with not much rain expected - video Dailymotion

Met Office

High pressure will dominate our weather into next week. That’ll bring plenty of dry and bright weather but northerly winds will also make for a cooler feel by day and night

Transcript

00:00Hello. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10-day trend, a 10-day trend that takes us just beyond

00:06the autumn equinox. So with the nights approaching 12 hours long, there's plenty of time for

00:10things to cool off and chilly mornings will definitely be a feature of the weather as

00:15we go through the weekend. And for the next few days, this area of high pressure will

00:19be a big feature of the weather. It's going to dominate, pushing away this weather front,

00:24pushing up against this other area of low pressure. And as those two squeeze together,

00:29the isobars pinch together as well. That means the winds will be picking up, especially

00:34so on Friday. But the high eventually winds out and this area of high pressure will dominate

00:39for the next five or six days, at least, bringing a lot of dry and fine weather with sunny spells

00:45by day. Let's just rewind the clock, however, because as this high pushes up against this

00:51low pressure, as I said, it's going to squeeze the isobars together, which will generate

00:55an ever-strengthening northerly wind. Now, that is going to bring cooler conditions

01:00for all, both by day and by night, and particularly noticeable along some of these eastern coasts

01:07as that wind really starts to strengthen through Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, the high

01:13pressure moving in should finally make those winds ease off a little bit across the east

01:18and so introducing slightly milder air, perhaps as we go through Sunday and more likely as

01:24we go into next week. So certainly turning chillier over the next few days. Temperatures

01:29by day of late in the south have been into the mid-20s. By Thursday, still into the low

01:3520s here. But for many northern areas, we're only looking at the mid-teens. And again,

01:40out on that wind and it really will feel quite chilly on Thursday, but perhaps even more

01:44noticeable on Friday, by which time we're struggling to get much above 18 Celsius in

01:49the south. Many places across the north barely getting into the teens. And again, that wind

01:53even more noticeable on Friday. Quite a lot of cloud in the east with a few showers likely

01:58too. And add on that wind, it will feel like temperatures are in single figure. So that's

02:04pretty noticeable certainly compared to what we've seen of late. So a big chill by day

02:09and as I mentioned, by night, particularly as those winds ease off a little through the

02:13weekend. Nighttime temperatures in urban areas down into single figures. And so in rural

02:19spots, we will be well down into single figures. Really quite cold starts on Saturday and perhaps

02:26Sunday morning as well. So yes, turning chillier over the next few days and nights, but certainly

02:32for the next several days, a lot of dry weather around. There will be some showers, particularly

02:36across northern Scotland and also along the east coast of both Scotland and England as

02:41those winds pick up during Thursday and Friday. And that cooler feel for all of us. What happens

02:48beyond the weekends? Well, high pressure will still control things during Sunday and

02:55into Monday as well. And as it builds in more, those easterly winds will finally start to

03:00ease off by the time we head to Monday. So at the moment, Monday looks dry with sunny

03:05spells for much of the UK, albeit with a bit of a chilly start. Notice there are weather

03:10fronts just trying to push in from the northwest, perhaps introducing a bit more cloud and maybe

03:15even a little bit of drizzly rain in the far northwest on Monday. And that's the biggest

03:19question mark as we go through the early part of next week, just how quickly these weather

03:24fronts will start to topple in with high pressure holding on. Certainly, it looks like across

03:29much of the south of the country. And that's the general pattern as we go through next

03:34week. As I said, the big question mark is how fast these weather fronts do push in.

03:38This is the European model for next Thursday, the most recent run. You can see the UK is

03:43here and these dots, that's precipitation, rainfall from that weather front. And you

03:50can see from this European model run, the most recent model run, that even by next Thursday,

03:54those weather fronts haven't made much progress, just bringing some outbreaks of rain across

03:59Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. But compare that to the previous model run and

04:05that had that weather front toppling much further south, sitting across parts of England

04:10and Wales. So, a very different look. Again, this is the next Thursday and this is just

04:15one computer model run, but quite a bit of uncertainty there. What we tend to do with

04:20these longer range forecasts is look at more probabilistic weather forecasts, run the model

04:25many, many times. And that gives a flavour of what the weather is more likely to be.

04:30And this is the pressure trend through next week, where red is high pressure, previous

04:36model runs down the side there and the dates going forward across the top. And what this

04:42is suggesting is that it's much more likely that the high pressure will hold on with more

04:47reds on the chart deep into next week. So, that indicates that, as I say, high pressure

04:52is more likely to be the dominant feature through next week. And those weather fronts

04:56are likely to be held further out west, more kept at bay. So, that means that the dry weather

05:02is likely to continue for much of the UK for most of next week. There will be some

05:06rain on those weather fronts, just question marks about the timing as they push in from

05:11the northwest. It is going to turn chillier over the next few days and nights, as we've

05:15seen, but temperatures are likely to rise a little as we go through next week. But,

05:19of course, as we approach the equinox, those longer nights, an increasing chance at this

05:24time of year that we could see some thicker fog patches in the morning. As always, for

05:29day-to-day details, make sure you stay up-to-date with everything from the Met Office by following

05:34us across social media.

10 day trend – A cooler few days and nights ahead with not much rain expected

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