10 Day trend – Will the heat return? 03/07/19 - video Dailymotion

Met Office

Much of the next 10 days promises dry weather with sunny spells. A return of the hot weather looks unlikely at this stage although the next couple of days will be pretty warm in the south.

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00:00Welcome to the Met Office 10 day

00:02trend. A 10 days that promises

00:04most places some fine summer

00:06weather. I don't think the weather is

00:08going to create too many headlines

00:10over the next 10 days.

00:11And for us meteorologists,

00:13there's not a lot to get our teeth

00:15into. But as I said, for most, that

00:16just means there'll be some fine

00:18weather around. Not a lot of rain to

00:20talk about. Sunny spells for many

00:22and temperatures around about or a

00:24bit above average, certainly for the

00:26next couple of days before

00:28things turn a little cooler through

00:29the weekend. It's going to turn colder

00:32because of a cold front, which

00:34is slowly pushing towards the UK

00:36at the moment. High pressure, though,

00:37is the dominant feature, keeping

00:39things largely dry and pretty

00:42sunny through Thursday across the

00:44south. That weather front, though,

00:46does arrive in the far northwest

00:48and it's looking very wet across the

00:49Highlands and the Western Isles for

00:51most of Thursday.

00:52And we could see something called a

00:53standing wave set up, which means

00:55that parts of the east coast of

00:56Scotland will also see some

00:58persistent rain, but it will be

00:59heaviest in the west.

01:01For many, it's a dry day on Thursday

01:03and lots of sunshine across England

01:04and Wales means rising temperatures

01:07really quite warm across the

01:08southeast. Twenty six degrees is

01:09possible.

01:11A big contrast to where that rain

01:12is across the northwest, only 13

01:14Celsius here.

01:16And the temperature contrast could be

01:17even more marked on Friday because

01:20even warmer air is pushing up from

01:22the far south. Now, this is not the

01:23hot air that we had last

01:25week, but temperatures will be

01:27rising, whereas across Scotland,

01:29the green colours are pushing

01:31southwards. So it is turning cooler

01:33here through the course of Friday

01:35and that's because of a cold front.

01:36And if we run into the weekend, well,

01:38although the warmth tries to hang

01:40on in the far south into Saturday,

01:43it looks like the cooler air will

01:44push its way across pretty much all

01:46places by Sunday.

01:47That's because of, as I said, that

01:49cold front drifting southwards.

01:52Here it comes and it just pushes that

01:54hot air away.

01:55It's still in place across the far

01:56south on Saturday,

01:58but it does eventually get moved

02:00away by Sunday.

02:01However, the timing of this cold

02:03front, well, that is open to

02:05a little bit of doubt.

02:06I'm going to show you something now

02:07called a spaghetti chart.

02:09It's pretty obvious why it's called

02:11that. But what this is showing is

02:13possible positions of that

02:14cold front.

02:16We're running the computer model

02:17several times.

02:18This is the European model run

02:19several times, and each one of those

02:21blue lines represents a position

02:23of that cold front.

02:24And it does show quite a spread.

02:26The cold front could be still into

02:28southern Scotland at midday

02:30on Saturday.

02:31That's when this time is set.

02:33The most likely position is

02:35somewhere across South Wales or

02:36southern England.

02:37But there's quite a bit of

02:38uncertainty there.

02:39We call this quite a big spread in

02:40the position of that cold front,

02:42given that we're only talking about

02:43Saturday and this is recorded

02:45on Wednesday. So it's quite unusual

02:47for that amount of uncertainty

02:49this relative lead time.

02:51So, yes, the cold front is pushing

02:52south. But when it eventually

02:54arrives, well, that is a

02:56little bit open to doubt.

02:57But it's not going to make a huge

02:59deal of difference in terms of

03:00rainfall, because although it's got

03:01a bit of wet weather on it as it

03:03approaches the northwest through

03:04Thursday and Friday, as it sinks

03:06southwards, the rain looks like

03:07fizzling out.

03:08So most places will still

03:10say dry.

03:11In fact, the greatest threat of

03:12heavy rain over the weekend is

03:14the potential for some thundery

03:16showers across northern France,

03:17maybe affecting the Channel

03:19Isles. That's something to keep an

03:21eye on. But for most places, even

03:22as you run through the weekend into

03:23Sunday, notice there's not a lot of

03:25rain around.

03:26So by and large, yes,

03:28it will turn cooler through the

03:30weekend.

03:31But actually, most places will stay

03:33fine and dry and there'll be some

03:35sunny spells around.

03:37So that's the rest of this week.

03:38How about next week?

03:40Well, the rather benign

03:42weather looks like continuing for

03:44the first part of the week,

03:45certainly.

03:45We've got the Azores high, a

03:47semi-permanent area of high

03:48pressure over the Azores down here

03:50just extending up across

03:53the UK. And that high pressure will

03:54keep things largely dry through the

03:56early part of next week.

03:57Maybe weak weather fronts bringing

03:58some cloud and patchy rain

04:00into the west.

04:01The broader picture, again, shows

04:03nothing too exciting weather wise.

04:04Yes, there's a deepish area of low

04:06pressure just off newfound land.

04:08And that's getting driven by a

04:10reasonably active jet stream.

04:12But close to the UK, notice the jet

04:14stream, those winds high up in the

04:15atmosphere.

04:17Well, they're pretty feeble at

04:19the moment. They're a bit stronger

04:21across parts of Europe.

04:22But close to the UK, that

04:24weak jet stream.

04:25And it's the jet stream, of course,

04:26that drives our weather patterns

04:28because that's fairly weak.

04:29There's no strong signal for the

04:30weather patterns into next

04:32week. And that's shown quite nicely

04:34by this chart here

04:35across the top. That's the date

04:37going forwards.

04:38Red, suggesting

04:40more likely to see high pressure in

04:42control. And for the next couple of

04:43days, that's what we've got.

04:44This is the most recent run of the

04:46computer models.

04:47Notice that through Tuesday's

04:49computer models, after the high

04:51pressure clears, there's a stronger

04:53signal for the blue colours, the

04:54low pressure to be in control.

04:56But the more recent run of the

04:58computer models suggesting that

05:00actually that's a fairly weak

05:01signal. And as we've seen, even

05:03though it does move south, that

05:04cold front doesn't have much rain on

05:06it. And it's fairly bland,

05:08the signal, particularly the middle

05:09part of next week. The green colours

05:11there suggesting neither high

05:12pressure nor low pressure is

05:14more likely to be in charge.

05:16So don't worry too much about the

05:17numbers on this chart.

05:18But the main signal is that next

05:20week into the middle of next week,

05:22the computer models are not really

05:24showing strong signs one way

05:26or the other.

05:27What does that mean?

05:28Well, it means probably a

05:29continuation of the largely

05:30typical summer weather.

05:32And it means that the extremes are

05:34less likely.

05:35So we're unlikely to see

05:37temperatures really rising.

05:39We're unlikely to see vicious

05:41thunderstorms as a result.

05:43And we're unlikely to see prolonged

05:45spells of rain.

05:46We're much more likely to see fairly

05:48typical summer fair and the kind of

05:50weather we haven't seen much of so

05:52far through this summer.

05:55Now, as always, the 10 day trend is

05:56just a trend, a flavour of what could

05:58happen next week.

05:59For the very latest details,

06:00you can always stay in touch by

06:02following us on social media.

10 Day trend – Will the heat return? 03/07/19

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