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10 Day trend β Will the heat return? 03/07/19
Met Office
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14/10/2024
Much of the next 10 days promises dry weather with sunny spells. A return of the hot weather looks unlikely at this stage although the next couple of days will be pretty warm in the south.
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00:00
Welcome to the Met Office 10 day
00:02
trend. A 10 days that promises
00:04
most places some fine summer
00:06
weather. I don't think the weather is
00:08
going to create too many headlines
00:10
over the next 10 days.
00:11
And for us meteorologists,
00:13
there's not a lot to get our teeth
00:15
into. But as I said, for most, that
00:16
just means there'll be some fine
00:18
weather around. Not a lot of rain to
00:20
talk about. Sunny spells for many
00:22
and temperatures around about or a
00:24
bit above average, certainly for the
00:26
next couple of days before
00:28
things turn a little cooler through
00:29
the weekend. It's going to turn colder
00:32
because of a cold front, which
00:34
is slowly pushing towards the UK
00:36
at the moment. High pressure, though,
00:37
is the dominant feature, keeping
00:39
things largely dry and pretty
00:42
sunny through Thursday across the
00:44
south. That weather front, though,
00:46
does arrive in the far northwest
00:48
and it's looking very wet across the
00:49
Highlands and the Western Isles for
00:51
most of Thursday.
00:52
And we could see something called a
00:53
standing wave set up, which means
00:55
that parts of the east coast of
00:56
Scotland will also see some
00:58
persistent rain, but it will be
00:59
heaviest in the west.
01:01
For many, it's a dry day on Thursday
01:03
and lots of sunshine across England
01:04
and Wales means rising temperatures
01:07
really quite warm across the
01:08
southeast. Twenty six degrees is
01:09
possible.
01:11
A big contrast to where that rain
01:12
is across the northwest, only 13
01:14
Celsius here.
01:16
And the temperature contrast could be
01:17
even more marked on Friday because
01:20
even warmer air is pushing up from
01:22
the far south. Now, this is not the
01:23
hot air that we had last
01:25
week, but temperatures will be
01:27
rising, whereas across Scotland,
01:29
the green colours are pushing
01:31
southwards. So it is turning cooler
01:33
here through the course of Friday
01:35
and that's because of a cold front.
01:36
And if we run into the weekend, well,
01:38
although the warmth tries to hang
01:40
on in the far south into Saturday,
01:43
it looks like the cooler air will
01:44
push its way across pretty much all
01:46
places by Sunday.
01:47
That's because of, as I said, that
01:49
cold front drifting southwards.
01:52
Here it comes and it just pushes that
01:54
hot air away.
01:55
It's still in place across the far
01:56
south on Saturday,
01:58
but it does eventually get moved
02:00
away by Sunday.
02:01
However, the timing of this cold
02:03
front, well, that is open to
02:05
a little bit of doubt.
02:06
I'm going to show you something now
02:07
called a spaghetti chart.
02:09
It's pretty obvious why it's called
02:11
that. But what this is showing is
02:13
possible positions of that
02:14
cold front.
02:16
We're running the computer model
02:17
several times.
02:18
This is the European model run
02:19
several times, and each one of those
02:21
blue lines represents a position
02:23
of that cold front.
02:24
And it does show quite a spread.
02:26
The cold front could be still into
02:28
southern Scotland at midday
02:30
on Saturday.
02:31
That's when this time is set.
02:33
The most likely position is
02:35
somewhere across South Wales or
02:36
southern England.
02:37
But there's quite a bit of
02:38
uncertainty there.
02:39
We call this quite a big spread in
02:40
the position of that cold front,
02:42
given that we're only talking about
02:43
Saturday and this is recorded
02:45
on Wednesday. So it's quite unusual
02:47
for that amount of uncertainty
02:49
this relative lead time.
02:51
So, yes, the cold front is pushing
02:52
south. But when it eventually
02:54
arrives, well, that is a
02:56
little bit open to doubt.
02:57
But it's not going to make a huge
02:59
deal of difference in terms of
03:00
rainfall, because although it's got
03:01
a bit of wet weather on it as it
03:03
approaches the northwest through
03:04
Thursday and Friday, as it sinks
03:06
southwards, the rain looks like
03:07
fizzling out.
03:08
So most places will still
03:10
say dry.
03:11
In fact, the greatest threat of
03:12
heavy rain over the weekend is
03:14
the potential for some thundery
03:16
showers across northern France,
03:17
maybe affecting the Channel
03:19
Isles. That's something to keep an
03:21
eye on. But for most places, even
03:22
as you run through the weekend into
03:23
Sunday, notice there's not a lot of
03:25
rain around.
03:26
So by and large, yes,
03:28
it will turn cooler through the
03:30
weekend.
03:31
But actually, most places will stay
03:33
fine and dry and there'll be some
03:35
sunny spells around.
03:37
So that's the rest of this week.
03:38
How about next week?
03:40
Well, the rather benign
03:42
weather looks like continuing for
03:44
the first part of the week,
03:45
certainly.
03:45
We've got the Azores high, a
03:47
semi-permanent area of high
03:48
pressure over the Azores down here
03:50
just extending up across
03:53
the UK. And that high pressure will
03:54
keep things largely dry through the
03:56
early part of next week.
03:57
Maybe weak weather fronts bringing
03:58
some cloud and patchy rain
04:00
into the west.
04:01
The broader picture, again, shows
04:03
nothing too exciting weather wise.
04:04
Yes, there's a deepish area of low
04:06
pressure just off newfound land.
04:08
And that's getting driven by a
04:10
reasonably active jet stream.
04:12
But close to the UK, notice the jet
04:14
stream, those winds high up in the
04:15
atmosphere.
04:17
Well, they're pretty feeble at
04:19
the moment. They're a bit stronger
04:21
across parts of Europe.
04:22
But close to the UK, that
04:24
weak jet stream.
04:25
And it's the jet stream, of course,
04:26
that drives our weather patterns
04:28
because that's fairly weak.
04:29
There's no strong signal for the
04:30
weather patterns into next
04:32
week. And that's shown quite nicely
04:34
by this chart here
04:35
across the top. That's the date
04:37
going forwards.
04:38
Red, suggesting
04:40
more likely to see high pressure in
04:42
control. And for the next couple of
04:43
days, that's what we've got.
04:44
This is the most recent run of the
04:46
computer models.
04:47
Notice that through Tuesday's
04:49
computer models, after the high
04:51
pressure clears, there's a stronger
04:53
signal for the blue colours, the
04:54
low pressure to be in control.
04:56
But the more recent run of the
04:58
computer models suggesting that
05:00
actually that's a fairly weak
05:01
signal. And as we've seen, even
05:03
though it does move south, that
05:04
cold front doesn't have much rain on
05:06
it. And it's fairly bland,
05:08
the signal, particularly the middle
05:09
part of next week. The green colours
05:11
there suggesting neither high
05:12
pressure nor low pressure is
05:14
more likely to be in charge.
05:16
So don't worry too much about the
05:17
numbers on this chart.
05:18
But the main signal is that next
05:20
week into the middle of next week,
05:22
the computer models are not really
05:24
showing strong signs one way
05:26
or the other.
05:27
What does that mean?
05:28
Well, it means probably a
05:29
continuation of the largely
05:30
typical summer weather.
05:32
And it means that the extremes are
05:34
less likely.
05:35
So we're unlikely to see
05:37
temperatures really rising.
05:39
We're unlikely to see vicious
05:41
thunderstorms as a result.
05:43
And we're unlikely to see prolonged
05:45
spells of rain.
05:46
We're much more likely to see fairly
05:48
typical summer fair and the kind of
05:50
weather we haven't seen much of so
05:52
far through this summer.
05:55
Now, as always, the 10 day trend is
05:56
just a trend, a flavour of what could
05:58
happen next week.
05:59
For the very latest details,
06:00
you can always stay in touch by
06:02
following us on social media.
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1:15
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