10 Day Trend 21/08/2024– More summer to come

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 21/08/2024. The rest of this week will remain fairly autumnal but as we move into the final week of summer and the bank holiday weekend, a slow improvement to something more settled, drier and warmer looks likely. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.

Transcript

00:00Next week is the last full week of summer, but has it already given up? Well, the short answer

00:05to that is no, but the rest of this week is not really going to feel much like summer at all.

00:11And the reason for that is the jet stream. We've got quite an active jet stream at the moment

00:16moving across the Atlantic. It's brought some pretty unsettled weather so far this week,

00:20and there is more of that to come, particularly through Thursday night into Friday. A really

00:24strong area of the jet core will develop this area of low pressure, which will sweep

00:29across the UK through Thursday night and into Friday. Now, the other interesting thing to note

00:35about this area of low pressure is that it's got tropical air mixed up in it. It's just the

00:39remnants of some tropical air from earlier on in the week, but that will mean there's enhanced

00:45rainfall expected through Thursday and Friday. So pretty wet start wherever you are to come

00:50on Friday morning. That area of low pressure will move away to the east though. Behind it,

00:54quite windy weather across northwestern areas, but it will turn much drier through the day on

00:59Friday. There will be some sunshine as well, temperatures climbing towards 23 or 24 degrees

01:05in the south and east. But while we keep hold of that breeze across the north and west,

01:09temperatures still pretty disappointing for the time of year across parts of Scotland and

01:13Northern Ireland in the low teens for some areas, but definitely a better end to the day

01:18than the start. Now, this area of rain is a result of this weather front. Now,

01:23that weather front is going to be draped along to the south of the UK through Friday evening. So

01:28fine end to the day, fine end to the working week, but that will not be the end of the rainfall as

01:35we head into the bank holiday weekend. As I said, this weather front's draped along to the south of

01:40the UK and it will develop some waves on it. That means that that rainfall will likely return

01:45overnight on Friday and into Saturday. That's because we've still got a fairly active area of

01:51the jet stream that will develop these waves and also where we're to the north of the jet stream.

01:55That's where it's going to stay quite unsettled as we head into Saturday, a risk of some quite

02:00heavy showers through Saturday. The nature of waves on weather fronts can be fairly uncertain,

02:06and with Saturday still being a few days away, there is some uncertainty with exactly

02:11how far north or south this front will lie overnight on Friday night. So this gives us

02:16a better picture of the uncertainty with that. This is an ensemble run. You can see the weather

02:22front here draped across the UK and the spread of the different areas that this weather front

02:28could lie is indicated by lots of different lines on the map. So where the orange line is,

02:34that's where the mean is lying. That's where the current model is showing their deterministic run.

02:40But lots of other runs are showing just slightly shifted north or slightly shifted south. So that

02:46rainfall could be affecting a slightly larger area of England by the time we get to Saturday

02:51morning. So it's going to be a fairly unsettled start to the bank holiday weekend, but things

02:57will improve as the weekend goes on. As this active area of the jet stream sweeps away to

03:04the east of the UK and behind it, things do turn a little bit more unsettled. Still some heavy

03:08showers to come through Saturday, a more settled, drier and calmer day more widely on Sunday and

03:15then on Monday, another area of the jet stream will develop a next area of low pressure that

03:20will bring some further wet and windy weather into the north and west. But many eastern areas,

03:25southern areas, England and Wales will remain fairly dry through Monday. The one thing to

03:30note about that, though, is after a fairly disappointing week, temperature wise is going

03:35to stay fairly cool through the weekend. For most of us, we've got cool air across the UK

03:41once this weather front pushes away to the south and east through Saturday morning. So some

03:45rainfall potentially quite heavy across eastern areas of England first thing on Saturday. Once

03:50that clears out the way, though, heavy showers will likely break out across parts of England

03:54and Wales, also across the far north and west, where there's going to be quite a strong wind

03:58through Saturday. So as a result, temperatures still pretty disappointing across western areas

04:03of Scotland and Northern Ireland. And as I said, some potentially quite heavy and possibly thundery

04:08showers here as well. Further south across England and Wales, it will still feel fairly

04:13warm in the sunshine temperatures still climbing into the low 20s. But for most of us will be in

04:17the high teens. Those showers should tend to fade away through Saturday evening, and that leads us

04:23into a more settled day on Sunday. So I'm going to be entirely dry. There's still a risk of some

04:28showers across particularly Northern Ireland and western areas of Scotland, as well as some areas

04:32of Wales. But I think many areas of England and Wales should stay fairly dry, even eastern areas

04:38of Scotland, eastern areas of Northern England as well, staying largely dry through Sunday. And

04:43it will feel fairly warm in the sunshine as well. Temperatures climbing into the low 20s. But when

04:49we get more frequent showers in the north and west, still a pretty autumnal feeling weekend to

04:53come. Now, Monday is that when we see that next area of low pressure, it's only really going to

04:59affect parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland, though, actually across more southern areas,

05:04much of England and Wales. It should stay dry through much of Monday and it will feel again

05:09fairly warm in the sunshine. Winds will be relatively light, particularly across eastern

05:13areas, but it will turn wetter and windier from the north and west as the day goes on through

05:19Monday. So a few changes to come throughout this bank holiday weekend. However, this frontal system

05:26that pushes into parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland, it's not going to make much progress

05:31throughout the rest of next week, as next week is looking much drier and more settled than this

05:37week. This is the most likely pressure pattern for Tuesday, the 27th of August. So you've got

05:43low pressure centred up to the north and west of the UK, high pressure centred over Scandinavia

05:49and across a lot of Europe as well. And that's going to bring more settled weather and influence

05:54of settled weather to eastern and southern areas of the UK. So I mean, any weather fronts that

06:00come into the northwest will likely bump into this higher pressure and be stopped where they are.

06:06And so by the time we get to Friday, the end of that week, it's not Friday, the 23rd of August,

06:12we will see low pressure still centred up to the north and west of the UK, high pressure

06:17likely dominating a bit more widely across the UK. So that leads us into the very end of summer,

06:24which means that we could start to see some warmer air moving up from the south and east.

06:29We could also see some Atlantic air coming up from the south and west. So that does mean it

06:34looks quite a lot warmer than this week, next week. So it's some improvements to come before

06:40summer is out. And you can see that on the most likely regimes across the UK on the decider plot

06:46here. So blues denote low pressure in charge. Reds denote higher pressure in charge. Now,

06:52the shade of red we've got here that becomes more dominant from around Tuesday, the 27th of August.

07:00Until around Friday, the 30th of August, then we start to see some other reds move in.

07:04But this shade of red is typically a Scandinavian high. So that's that high pressure situated over

07:11parts of Scandinavia, which means that we could see some more southerly wind directions picking up

07:16some warmer air for the week. And then we start to see more of a blocked pattern,

07:20which just means that things won't move around too much lasting into the first week of September,

07:25most likely. So throughout next week and in fact, the following week, the first week of autumn,

07:31it's actually looking much more settled across the UK, but particularly across southern and

07:36eastern areas of the UK. Now, these show the most likely the temperature trend across a couple of

07:42regions in the UK. We've got Reading on the bottom and Belfast on the top. And there's a clear trend

07:48in both Reading and Belfast, just a few places across the UK that after this fairly cool week,

07:54temperatures will likely rise from at least the start or middle part of next week to above average.

08:02And that's the trend both across Reading and also Belfast. As you can see here, temperatures don't

08:07rise quite as much for more north and western areas, just as we will be closer to that higher

08:12pressure. It's still likely to stay fairly wet here, but things will get much warmer compared

08:18to this week. I think we could see temperatures warmer than average. There is just a chance of

08:23seeing temperatures hotter than average as well, but only really in southern areas. That's if we do

08:28tap into that more continental air towards the end of the last week of August. So the theme

08:36for next week is that it will be a warmer week. It's going to be a drier and calmer week than this

08:42week. It doesn't mean it will be entirely dry. There's still some weather fronts lingering out

08:46to the north and west. So rain will be most frequent across northwestern areas. Some of

08:50that could push south and east, bringing some rainfall to southeastern areas. But that high

08:55pressure is going to do its job to try and keep them at bay for as long as possible. As I said,

09:02though, there is some still some fairly unsettled weather to come through the end of this week. So

09:07it's really important to stay tuned to the forecast. And you can do that by subscribing

09:11to our YouTube channel. See you again soon. Bye.

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