10 Day Trend - Will the rest of October get any drier? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

the next 10 days promise further spells of wet and windy weather, the weekend in particular looks blustery and next week there could be a tropical influence on things. Alex Deakin has the details

Transcript

00:00Welcome along to the Met Office 10 day trend where the short message is get

00:05used to it. It's a very wet Wednesday for some parts of the UK and while

00:10there's plenty more rain in the forecast the next 10 days takes us to the end of

00:14the month and yes further spells of wet and windy weather are expected throughout

00:19the rest of October and in particular the weekend it could get really quite

00:23windy as another area of low-pressure moves in. Next week well there's

00:28something of an influence coming up from the tropics more on that in a

00:32moment. First of all let's take a look at the big picture and the pressure pattern

00:36at the moment we're being influenced by this area of low pressure come came up

00:39from the south it's ex-Storm Barbara as named by the Spanish the remnants of

00:45that weather system bringing a very wet spell of weather before that scoots away.

00:50We're then left with a drying up day on Thursday but still there will be some

00:54wet weather across the northeast but for most Thursdays a bit drier as the

00:58brief ridge of high pressure moves in before another low arrives this one up

01:02towards Iceland but it's weather from swings across the country on Friday

01:06bringing a spell of rain before the next system comes in on Saturday and this

01:10one's pretty lively a more intense area of low pressure more isobars on the

01:14charts that will be bringing some stronger winds at the weekend. Let's take

01:18a look at the three-dimensional picture and add the jet stream to that sequence

01:22and you can see at the moment it's coming up from the south an arm of the

01:26jet stream which is why that low pressure that was named by the Spanish

01:30Met Service Storm Barbara has come up from Spain and France. That's then

01:35clearing away there's not a lot going on in the Atlantic initially with a jet

01:38stream but it does get its act together. Now that first low that comes across

01:41Iceland and brings us some wet and windy weather on Friday isn't that close to

01:45the jet but the next one that comes in on Saturday well that really takes a

01:50ride on that worm of a jet stream as it powers across the Atlantic and it's that

01:55energised jet stream that really energises them that area of low pressure

01:59and it's that extra bit of energy that just adds a bit of uncertainty about the

02:03weekend forecast and the exact position and intensity of that low as it comes

02:07close to the UK but it does look as if we'll see a spell of wet and windy

02:10weather this weekend. Just going to pull out a little bit and show you another

02:14area of low pressure out in the more western parts of the Atlantic off the

02:19east coast of Canada. More on that area of low pressure in a moment but yes

02:25let's focus in on the weekend because as that low rides in as I say some

02:28uncertainty because a lot's got to come together it will be interacting with

02:30that powerful jet so some uncertainty about the exact trajectory intensity of

02:35that low but that cold front swings across the country during Saturday into

02:39Sunday quite a lot of isobars on the chart and that weather front swings

02:43through bringing some rain and that'll be followed by a mixture of sunshine and

02:47showers so yes it could be quite a windy weekend certainly that's the main theme

02:51it should be a bit milder than last weekend but it will be windy with a

02:54spell of rain with some sunshine between the showers particularly so on Sunday.

03:00What happens beyond that? Well the low pressure that arrives at the weekend is

03:04still sticking around through Sunday bringing us the showers. The isobars tend

03:08to open up a little bit into next week through Monday so perhaps not quite as

03:12windy on Monday and there's again a little ridge in the isobars, a bump

03:16there which could turn things a bit drier for a time but out in the

03:20Atlantic there is a couple of areas of low pressure they're starting to dumbbell

03:24around each other potentially forming a very large area of low pressure in the

03:30Mid-Atlantic which will dominate next week's weather now that could bring some

03:34pretty lively weather at the moment it looks like sticking out in the

03:37Mid-Atlantic certainly initially. There's a fair bit of uncertainty because of

03:42where some of that area of low pressure originated from. I'm going to rewind the

03:47clock now and go back in time back to the here and now and show you where

03:51some of that area of low pressure develops from. Yes we can trace it back

03:55down to the tropics and what is currently Hurricane Epsilon. Now it's a

04:02hurricane at the moment at the time of recording it will track its way

04:05northwards and as is the usual case with these storms it will become

04:09extropical sometime over the weekend it will no longer be a hurricane but it

04:13could still bring some very moist and energetic air in towards the jet stream

04:18that could influence our weather next week. So that always adds a bit of

04:22uncertainty to the forecast what happens to Hurricane Epsilon. Now for more

04:28information about hurricanes and how they can influence our weather there's a

04:31really great video that my colleague Aidan McGiven made on our YouTube video

04:35explaining how these extropical storms can affect UK weather so I'd urge you to

04:40check that out. But the main theme is that next week Epsilon will be close to

04:44the UK and so will be influencing our weather somehow. Whether it's direct

04:50spell of wet and windy weather or whether it brings us some warmth the

04:53main thing is at the moment that that extra bit of energy will increase the

04:57uncertainty. Why does it increase uncertainty? Well a good analogy is think

05:01of a spinning top. If I put a spinning top on a table and give it a little bit

05:05of a tweak and as soon as it's spinning stop freeze frame and say where

05:12will that spinning top finish. Draw a circle where it's likely to finish.

05:16Then if I do the same experiments again but give it a much bigger spin again I

05:20have to draw a circle encompassing all areas where it could finish then that

05:23circle when I give it a much bigger spin is going to be much larger and that's

05:26the increased uncertainty. That's why these bits of energy these tropical

05:31storms when they get into our systems add confusion to the computer models.

05:36So yes some uncertainty about next week but however Epsilon influences the main

05:41suggestion is that the Atlantic will dominate our weather next week. Let me show

05:45you this chart now this is the European model run where we run the model several

05:48times and I've shown these kind of graphs before but usually we're focusing

05:53on whether it'll be high pressure or low pressure that dominates our weather. This

05:56one is indicating whether it's more westerly or easterly winds that will

06:00dominate our weather. Blue being westerly and red being easterly not a

06:04lot of red on that chart. Now we start green because that's where we are today

06:08and we've got southerly winds so they're neither easterly nor westerly but after

06:12Wednesday it becomes very blue a lot of blue on the chart as I say for the rest

06:16of the month and beyond. So the main flow of our weather throughout next week will

06:20be dominated from the Atlantic from westerly winds and when that happens the

06:24Atlantic is obviously a large body of water it usually going to bring us wet

06:28and at times windy weather. So that's the main theme through next week more of

06:32the same. It won't rain all the time of course there will be dry and brighter

06:34spells in between but much of the rest of October expect further spells of wet

06:39and windy weather. There are weather warnings in force so make sure you stay

06:43up to date day to day with the details. This is just the 10-day trend looking at

06:48what we're looking at into next week but for the day-to-day details make sure

06:51you're following the Met Office on social media and I urge you to also

06:54subscribe to our YouTube channel and check out that video that Aidan made.

10 Day Trend - Will the rest of October get any drier?

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