10 Day Trend 06/11/2024 – High to dominate? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 06/11/2024.   High pressure has been in control of our weather for the whole of November, how long can it continue?   Bringing you this 10 day trend forecast is Alex Deakin.

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00:00Welcome to your 10-day trend where the pressure remains pretty high and as a

00:05result the weather will remain largely dry. But the position and shape of the

00:10high pressure will kind of dictate what flavor weather we have over the next

00:14week or so. As we record, well the big picture looks like this with the jet

00:19stream high in the sky driving well to the north of the UK arching over us and

00:25across much of northern Europe allowing a big area of high pressure to dominate

00:29across most of mainland Europe. Actually over the next couple of days we'll start

00:34to see another center of the high develop just to the east of the UK and

00:38keeping the weather fronts at bay and that means it'll stay largely dry with

00:43the high sitting here the winds going clockwise around high pressure the air

00:47continues to waft up from the south so relatively mild air relatively moist air

00:53and trapped under the high pressure as you'll have noticed there is an awful

00:57lot of clouds so we're not going to see a great deal of change for the next

01:00couple of days it stays pretty drab most places dry the cloud thick enough here

01:05and there particularly over hills and coast for a little bit of drizzle but equally with a

01:09southerly wind it's areas to the north of hills that tend to have the drier

01:14conditions and the brighter weather. Northern Scotland poking out into some

01:19sunshine for the next couple of days Thursday and Friday as well and as a

01:24result it'll be warmest here too. These are the temperatures compared to the

01:28average for the middle of November most places around or a little bit above

01:32something a bit milder further west and the highest temperatures with the

01:36brightest skies across northern Scotland helped by something called the fern

01:39effect the winds bouncing over the mountains drier air to the lee of the

01:44mountains and warmer conditions here as well. For more on the fern effect you can

01:48check out Aidan's deep dive from Tuesday lots of information in there about it.

01:54Okay what about the future into the weekend well we still have high pressure

01:59sitting to the east of us and the jet stream pushing way up to the north but

02:04out in the Atlantic things are changing the jet stream is coming more east to

02:09west and it is trying to shunt some weather fronts towards us the first

02:13couple will kind of just fizzle out bringing a bit more cloud and a few

02:17spots of rain into the west but the jet stream does look likely to pick up this

02:21area of low pressure but instead of whizzing it across the UK it's gonna

02:25nudge it up to the north this weather front though will bring perhaps a little

02:29bit more in the way of rain as it crosses the country during the second

02:32half of the weekend so the isobars closing together as well so it will get

02:35a little windier across northern Scotland also but that weather fronts

02:39won't produce a huge amount of rain and certainly the ones before that will

02:44produce very little in the way of rain this is the projected six hourly

02:50rainfall totals for Friday into Monday and you can see most of the UK as we run

02:55through the time will stay dry a bit of drizzle here and there over the hills

02:58across the south and we'll see some pockets of light rain in the west as

03:02those first weather fronts trickle in during Saturday a little bit more as

03:05that weather front does move in across Scotland during Sunday but again as it

03:10pushes south not a huge amount of rain so for many the next five or six days

03:15will remain dry just as I say a little bit of drizzle here and there over the

03:20hills and also staying pretty mild these are the temperatures compared to average

03:24for Saturday many places around maybe a degree or so above average Western areas

03:29a little bit warmer than the mid-November average and Sunday well

03:34many more places will be above average so quite warm on Sunday particularly if

03:39we do see any brighter skies now the maxima on Sunday probably quite early on

03:44across parts of the north because that weather front will be moving in during

03:48Sunday it will introduce slightly cooler conditions for a time across the

03:53northern half of the UK but then look at this the high pressure builds back in

03:58through Sunday and into a Monday and this high will then dominate our weather

04:03for the early part of next week and warmer air wafting back further north at

04:07least for the early part of the week so temperatures are going to be above

04:10average through the weekend particularly so on Sunday and Sunday

04:14night and for the start of next week almost back to square one with high

04:19pressure dominating the jet stream pushing up to the north arching over the

04:24UK taking the weather systems and the weather fronts with it up towards

04:29Iceland now I say we're almost back to square one but now the high instead of

04:33sitting to the east of us is sitting much more across the UK so the winds are

04:39going to be fairly light particularly so in the south and this high pressure

04:42looks quite a lot cleaner as we say in meteorological terms so that means it's

04:48there's not as much moisture in it so there won't be as much cloud so a much

04:52better chance as that high builds in for the early part of next week of actually

04:56seeing some blue sky rather than grey sky so some sunshine likely early next

05:01week particularly so on Monday a fresher feel at least temporarily and that will

05:07probably be because at night without any cloud obviously the nights will be

05:10quite a lot colder the night's going to be very mild for the next few nights but

05:14early part of next week with that cleaner high not as much cloud around

05:19the nights will be turning colder so a greater chance of some night frosts and

05:23of course some fog patches as well so that's the early part of next week this

05:28chart suggesting that high pressure will continue to dominate throughout next

05:33week this is the multi-model probabilistic pressure trends many

05:38models when we use the ensembles and look at all of the different projected

05:42outcomes the red suggesting high pressure blue is low pressure but

05:47there's not a lot of that on the chart very red indeed these are the previous

05:50computer model runs there the dates going forward you can see solid red

05:54throughout next week before turning a little pink here towards the following

05:59weekend but that was just high pressure is going to dominate close to the UK

06:04throughout next week but as we've already seen the position of the high is

06:09crucial for the for the type of weather we see sitting to the east of us it's

06:13generated a lot of cloud sitting over us it should at least temporarily bring

06:16some sunnier skies through the early part of next week but we can dig a

06:21little deeper and look at the potential regimes within the pressure pattern and

06:28we've got eight different flavors here a different types of weather indicated

06:32the dates and they're going forward along the bottom here and the different

06:36colored bars representing eight different flavors with the orange in the

06:39reds more high pressure the blues more low pressure and this one this kind of

06:45mid orange color dominating for Sunday and Monday that's when the high pressure

06:50is sitting right over the UK likely to last into Tuesday as well but as we go

06:55through next week that diminishes the probability of that weather flavor if

07:00you like and this darker ready orange becomes more dominant actually more red

07:05isn't it by the end of the week now that's not actually suggesting high

07:09pressure is definitely going to dominate it's suggesting that the weather

07:12patterns are becoming more stagnant a negative NAO which means the weather

07:16patterns are a slow moving so that could mean that lower pressure is sitting over

07:21the UK what's most likely to happen towards the back end of next week is

07:25that the high pressure will still be close by and still mostly controlling

07:30our weather but instead of sitting to the east as it is this week or over the

07:34UK for the weekend early part of next week back end of next week the most

07:37likely scenario is that high pressure actually is building out to the west and

07:41because the winds go around high pressure clockwise if it's sitting here

07:46it means the winds are more likely to be coming in from the north and particularly

07:49if we do generate an area of low pressure sitting out to the east this is

07:53the European model projection for next Thursday just the deterministic model

07:59but most of the models are in agreement that something like this setup will

08:03occur slightly cooler air then pushing in in this setup and by the time it's a

08:09Friday that high is still dominating but sitting out here and the low pressure is

08:14getting a little closer suggesting the winds could even start to come in more

08:18from the east or even the northeast it's not especially cold air but it is cooler

08:23and fresher air and of course at this time of year that's going to feel pretty

08:27chilly with the winds coming in from the North Sea so there are strong signals

08:31that it will turn a little cooler as we go through next week as these box and

08:36whiskers plots suggest this these are generated using the ensembles where you

08:42run the computer model many times this is the European model run and this

08:47bottom plot showing the temperatures for London the top one for Belfast the

08:52maximum temperatures and how they compare to average and you can see here

08:56on the Belfast plot we're going to see those higher temperatures in the west

09:00Sunday quite a bit above average here before they do drop off as we go through

09:05it next week and it's a similar story less exaggerated for London closer to

09:10average but still probably warmer than average for Saturday and Sunday before

09:15that general dip as we go through it next week the box and whiskers do get

09:19larger as we go through the back end of next week suggesting more uncertainty

09:23but that's fairly typical you can see that pattern in there they are both

09:27suggesting that things will get cooler as we go through it next week so high

09:31pressure still in control but instead of the cloudy conditions this week early

09:36part of next week does look as if we should see some sunshine before things

09:40turn a little colder and perhaps a little wetter as we go towards the back

09:44end of next week the back end of this week offer something very exciting

09:49indeed because it's the return of the weather studio live that's only going to

09:54be available on YouTube so make sure you hit subscribe the weather studio live

09:59will feature presenters talking through the weekend weather but we also want

10:03your interaction as well as if you watch it live you can ask us a question

10:08anything you want to know about the weather so don't miss that

10:11that's this Friday the 8th of November the return of the weather studio live

10:15at 1215

10 Day Trend 06/11/2024 – High to dominate?

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