10 Day Trend 09/10/2024 – Colder but for how long? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 09/10/2024.   It’s a messy weather picture with a colder spell on the way but how long will it last?  Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.

Transcript

00:00Snow and ice both get a mention in this week's Met Office 10-day trend.

00:05It is turning colder, but how long will the colder weather last?

00:09Let's take a look at the big picture first of all, and the jet stream,

00:12that fast-moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere.

00:15It's kind of split into two, taking two trains of areas of low pressure.

00:20This one in particular of interest, likely to bring some damaging winds

00:24and torrential rain to parts of mainland Europe.

00:26That is the remnants of Kirk, ex-Hurricane Kirk, now Storm Kirk,

00:31heading its way and bringing some potentially very damaging conditions

00:35to parts of France, the Low Countries and Germany.

00:38There are amber and red warnings in place across Europe.

00:41But it's staying to the south of the UK.

00:43It's still impacting our weather because as it clears,

00:45it's opening the door to northerly winds, bringing much colder conditions.

00:50Low pressure has been dominating all through this week,

00:52bringing lots of heavy showers.

00:54It is scooting away as Kirk spreads northwards and clears away, too.

00:58But it's also clearing away the slightly milder air,

01:01and the cold air already in place floods down

01:03as the northerly winds set in for Thursday and Friday.

01:08So it is going to turn quite a bit colder.

01:10But for most of us, quite a bit brighter as well.

01:13Not completely dry on Thursday.

01:14There will still be a few showers around,

01:16particularly scattered across parts of the eastern.

01:18A fairly brisk wind bringing even more of a chill.

01:21These are the temperatures.

01:22Touch below average for most.

01:24Some spots staying in single figures.

01:26And when you add that wind on, particularly along these north sea coasts,

01:29this is what it will feel like.

01:31Six or seven degrees Celsius.

01:33So that's quite a change compared to what we had to start the week.

01:36So it is going to turn colder both by day and by night

01:39because the clearer skies with the winds falling light

01:42will allow temperatures to fall down to below freezing.

01:46These are the temperatures in towns and cities.

01:47Not far of freezing.

01:48Some actually hitting zero for Friday morning.

01:51And rural spots will be a few degrees below.

01:53Not quite as cold, you'll notice, across Scotland

01:56because here we've got more cloud and some showery rain moving in.

01:59That will help to keep the temperatures up.

02:00But with the colder air in place, over the mountains, yes,

02:04you can pick out a few blobs of white.

02:06On the Scottish mountains, there will be some snow in the showers.

02:09And even at lower levels as we go through the weekend,

02:12there could be a little bit of sleet and snow,

02:14particularly across Shetland.

02:16What about into the weekend then?

02:18Well, it's a messy old picture.

02:20The pressure and the jet stream kind of all over the place.

02:23Still split in two, really, the jet stream.

02:25So we still have two tracks of low-pressure systems.

02:27This one, again, bringing some wet and windy conditions

02:30to northern Spain and Portugal.

02:32And then we have a trail of weather fronts across the north

02:35bringing more cloud and showery rain as we go into the weekend.

02:38But further south, between the two streams of jet stream,

02:41we generally have higher pressure moving in.

02:44And that should bring much of the south a fine couple of days.

02:48That weather front, though, there is some doubt about exactly where it sits.

02:52So that's a bit of a question mark, particularly for Saturday.

02:54This is the spaghetti plot from the European computer model

02:59when we run it many times, what's called an ensemble.

03:02And each one of these lines is a potential position of that weather front.

03:06And considering how far ahead this is, only three days for Saturday,

03:11there's quite a spread, quite a range of where that weather front could be.

03:14It's not a particularly significant weather front,

03:16but it could bring some showers to parts of the south.

03:19Apart from that, though, with high pressure nearby,

03:21much of the south for Friday and Saturday should be dry,

03:25whereas further north we will have a lot of cloud

03:28and some showers moving through on both days.

03:31Staying fairly chilly through the course of Friday and Saturday as well,

03:34and cold enough, particularly on Saturday night,

03:37after the showers in here for some icy conditions on Sunday morning.

03:42What about Sunday, though, in the broader terms?

03:45Well, this is the European model projection for Sunday.

03:49High pressure in control, but quite a lot of cold air in place.

03:53If we compare that to the Met Office model,

03:55it doesn't really push that weather front further south.

03:58And so we've got much milder air in place for Sunday across the UK.

04:02I think the more likely scenario is the European model

04:05with the front dipping further south and introducing chillier conditions.

04:08But just showing that for the comparison,

04:11both are largely dry across much of the UK,

04:14but that difference in the air across the country.

04:17So, yes, high pressure is likely to dominate through certainly the south

04:21during the weekend, keeping things largely dry.

04:23But it could be quite a chilly old start to Sunday.

04:25And then the high starts to waddle away.

04:28So as we go into next week,

04:30we've kind of got this battle set up with a stubborn large area of high pressure

04:34somewhere over the near continent,

04:36low pressure systems trying to get in from the northwest.

04:39The jet is still in this kind of split mode,

04:42one arm of it pushing the low pressure systems up towards the northwest.

04:47There are some tropical features.

04:49This one behind me, that is Milton,

04:52currently barrelling in towards Florida.

04:54It won't be a hurricane by this stage,

04:56probably as it drifts over the other side.

04:58And it's not at this stage likely to be heading its way north,

05:01but something to keep an eye on other tropical systems further south.

05:04But for the UK, we're concentrating on what's going on with this battleground

05:08between high pressure sitting over the near continent,

05:12low pressure trying to push in.

05:14And, yeah, it's just a question of which one will win out the most.

05:18It looks like as we go through much of next week,

05:21because the low pressure is likely to bring some wet and windy conditions,

05:25high pressure generally promising dry and fine conditions.

05:28It looks like the high will dominate for the early part of next week.

05:32But how long it lasts, that's the big question mark.

05:35So with the high pressure sitting here, low pressure sitting here,

05:38that's going to generate southwesterly winds.

05:40So that will bring milder air from the Atlantic,

05:44but also over a large body of water,

05:46it's going to bring cloud and outbreaks of rain.

05:49If the high is in a slightly different position, however,

05:52I mean, it's a very similar setup with the high and the low.

05:54But if the high is a little further north,

05:56holding the low pressures a little more at bay,

05:59well, that would generate winds generally coming in from the south or southwest.

06:04So a subtle difference in that area of high pressure

06:07could mean very different flavours of weather.

06:09That would keep things largely dry.

06:11Both would lift the temperatures.

06:14Now, over recent computer model runs,

06:17there's been a bit of a change of heart.

06:19This is a European model run showing the different flavours of weather

06:23going from 0 to 100.

06:25The different coloured bars are different regimes,

06:28different types of weather.

06:30The reds marked here for the early part of next week,

06:33that's indicative of a Scandinavian high

06:36with the high pressure sitting over Scandinavia.

06:38Second scenario I showed you with the winds more coming up

06:41from the south or the southeast.

06:43The pale blues, that's more of a southwesterly trend.

06:46And if we go back from the previous couple of runs,

06:48you can see that that was more favoured a couple of days ago.

06:53for the early part of next week.

06:55But now the most likely scenario is that high is going to be closer

06:59and more dominant, but it's a kind of 50-50 shot.

07:02As we saw, there's not a lot of difference in the general pattern of weather,

07:08but it makes a subtle difference to the type of weather that we see.

07:12So the blues and the reds almost making up 50-50

07:15when we look at the multi-model combination

07:18for the early part of next week.

07:20So that's something we need to closely monitor over the next few days.

07:24But then the main thing, notice that the paler blues

07:27are the much more likely regime as we go through the second half of next week.

07:32So this setup is the most likely through the second half of next week

07:36with the high pressure just drifting a little bit further away,

07:40the lower pressure closer to the north and the west.

07:42And that means the winds will be coming up from the southwest

07:46rather than the south or the southeast.

07:48And as I said, when the winds are coming from the southwest,

07:51coming over a lot of water, that generates a lot of cloud

07:54and some outbreaks of rain, particularly in western areas.

07:57But the closer you are to the high, so the further east you are,

08:01the more likely it is that you'll keep the drier weather for longer.

08:05So that's the big question mark about next week,

08:07whether the high sits closer or further away

08:11and just how far in the wet and the windy weather comes in from the west.

08:15But generally, it's going to be milder,

08:17whether the winds are coming from the southeast or the southwest

08:19after that chillier spell through the weekend.

08:22It will turn milder as we go through next week.

08:25As always, this is the 10-Day Trend,

08:27where we're just looking at the trends of potential scenarios.

08:31If you want that day-to-day detail, do keep up to date with the forecast.

08:35And the best way to do that, of course,

08:37is to hit subscribe on YouTube and follow us on social media.

10 Day Trend 09/10/2024 – Colder but for how long?

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