10 Day Trend 17/07/2024 – Heatwave on the way? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 17/07/2024.  The heat will build across southern and eastern areas to end this week, but will there be a heatwave and how long will it last?  Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.

Transcript

00:00The heat is building across southern areas to end the week, but it's unlikely to last

00:05many more than three days of this 10-day trend, as we'll then return into the cooler, more

00:10unsettled set-up we've been in so far this July.

00:14The reason we've been in that set-up, well, we've been on the northern side of the jet

00:17stream.

00:18Here's the jet stream here sweeping across the Atlantic, and over the next few days,

00:22its position will change.

00:23It becomes a more amplified pattern, diving down well to the south of the UK and taking

00:29low-pressure systems up to the north and west of the UK.

00:33But as we head towards the weekend, Sunday most likely, the return of the stronger jet

00:38core to affect the UK.

00:41So it is going to turn a bit more unsettled by Sunday and certainly cooler again.

00:46But before then, as the jet stream dives down to the south, that will allow more of a southerly

00:51wind direction, and that will allow us to tap into this warmer continental air, the

00:56warmest direction at this time of year.

00:58So the heat will build, likely peaking on Friday before a weather front sweeps across

01:03the country, introducing that fresher air from the north and west by Sunday.

01:07So a bit of a change to come through the weekend.

01:10But before then, we do have that heat to build.

01:13So it's only really going to build across south and eastern areas of England and Wales.

01:18Actually, to the north and west, weather fronts are still going to affect these areas, bringing

01:22cloudier skies and outbreaks of fairly light rain, but fairly persistent rain.

01:27So as I said, in the peak of the heat, we could see 28 degrees on Thursday.

01:31That's probably the highest temperature we'll see on Thursday.

01:33But widely across England and Wales, we'll be in the mid-20s, 25 degrees is quite likely

01:38even across southern areas of Wales and some northern areas of England as well.

01:43But where that cloud still lingers, we'll still be in the higher teens, possibly the

01:47mid-teens across the far north and west.

01:49And there is a bit of a breeze up across northwestern areas where we're closer to low-pressure systems.

01:54Very little change as we head into Friday, apart from the fact that we'll start to see

01:58that heat build even further, with strong sunshine expected quite widely across England

02:04and Wales.

02:05Very high UV levels as well.

02:07The rain will potentially be a slightly more restricted to further north and west, bringing

02:11some drier weather to parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England, much of Scotland.

02:15But there will be quite a bit more cloud around here, so potentially a little bit warmer extending

02:20further north across northeastern areas of England.

02:23And Scotland's still staying largely dry and seeing temperatures into the low-20s as

02:27well.

02:28But it will be all that bit breezier further north and west.

02:31But looking where the heat really builds, you can see that as the oranges and reds start

02:35to arrive on the map, potentially 31 degrees is possible for the greater London area, but

02:41quite widely we'll be in those high-20s across many central and southeastern areas of England

02:47as well.

02:48So, a very warm or hot day to come on Friday.

02:52And then we're into that transition period Friday into Saturday.

02:55So, the further west you are, the more likely you are to see that breakdown into the cooler

02:59weather earlier on in the day.

03:02There's potential for a bit of a thundery breakdown as well, either across parts of

03:06the southeast of England, but also where this weather front lies.

03:10We could see some very heavy bursts of rain.

03:13Becomes more and more likely as the day progresses.

03:15There is some uncertainty on the timings of this weather front, so that's something to

03:19keep up to date with over the next few days.

03:21But ahead of the weather front, we've still got that heat, highs of around 29, possibly

03:2730, if the weather front stays at bay for just long enough for that heat to build a

03:32bit more widely across eastern areas.

03:35But I think that fresher feels going to arrive as the day goes on from the west when we back

03:38down into the high teens, low 20s, a bit closer to average for this time of year and certainly

03:44fresher than it will have been for the end of this week to end the weekend.

03:51So, are we going to have a heatwave this week?

03:55Well, first of all, let's have a look at the heatwave definition.

03:59Well, the heatwave definition depends on the threshold temperature for the region.

04:04So quite widely across the UK, that's 25 degrees.

04:07But as we get closer to the Greater London region, it increases up to 28 degrees.

04:12Now, you don't just need to see your heatwave threshold temperature for one day.

04:16You need it for three days in a row for it to be defined as a heatwave.

04:22Now, the heat is most likely in the south and east and any heatwave potential is really

04:28only restricted to southeastern areas.

04:30So we need to zoom in on the south and east and we'll take 28 degrees.

04:34That's our highest threshold temperature as an example.

04:38So Thursday is when that heat is starting to build.

04:41The probability of 28 degrees, if you look very closely, you can see it's only restricted

04:47to London or the Greater London region.

04:50Outside of that, we will probably see some of those 27 degrees just where those thresholds

04:54count.

04:55So that could be our first day of the heatwave, but only really for just a couple of locations.

05:02And then Friday, well, that's when the heat is likely to peak.

05:05So there's a much greater probability of seeing that 28 degrees or more, 30 or 31 degrees

05:10is actually likely on Friday for a wider region of southern and central England into

05:16parts of South Wales as well.

05:20So again, it's this Greater London region where we could be having our second day of

05:25the heatwave by this point, but we need that third day.

05:28So by Saturday, we're starting to see that cooler air arrive from the west and that.

05:34And so the heat will slowly start to push further east as we see that cooler air arrive.

05:41And so there's the potential to see another 28 degrees, but that probability is getting

05:46lower as we head towards Saturday.

05:48So there's potentially about a 50% chance that we could see that 28 degrees for the

05:53Greater London area and some southeastern areas.

05:56So I think a few locations across the south and east could technically see a heatwave.

06:00But for most of us, it's going to be one or two days at best of that heat before the

06:05cooler air arrives for the latter part of the weekend.

06:09And that's because this weather front will be pushing its way eastwards through the country,

06:14bringing in this fresher air and this more northwesterly regime.

06:17We do see a ridge of high pressure for a time on Sunday, but then as we head into the start

06:22of next week, we return to low pressures sweeping in.

06:25And that's that jet stream returning, moving us into a more changeable setup once again.

06:32But we have got the Azores high starting to build in from the south and west.

06:37So it's not going to be all wet and windy through next week.

06:40Actually, the most likely regime for Monday and Tuesday next week is for this Azores high

06:46to extend its influence at least across southern areas of the UK.

06:51We could see eastern areas still holding on to that wetter weather clearing away from

06:55the weekend.

06:56But a ridge of higher pressure just for a couple of days, Monday and Tuesday, is looking

07:01fairly likely.

07:02However, it is a northwesterly direction, so it's unlikely to be anywhere near as hot

07:08as we're expecting to end this coming week.

07:12And then, as I said, it's going to change again.

07:15So turning more changeable.

07:16Yes, we will see ridges of higher pressure, but we could see some low pressure returning

07:20as well.

07:21We get to Thursday the 25th of July, low pressure is moving in from the north and west, returning

07:27to that more unsettled picture.

07:28So I think westerly wind directions will dominate through much of next week.

07:32We could see this high pressure building in from the south and that low pressure building

07:37in from the north.

07:38So more unsettled weather is probably most likely across northwestern areas, more settled

07:42weather sometimes across southern areas.

07:44And we'll be battling between those two setups through much of next week.

07:48Here is the map for the probabilities of the different regimes for much of next week.

07:54Blues show that lower pressure and the yellows and reds show the higher pressure.

07:58So here we are to end the weekend, Sunday the 21st of July.

08:03We've got those blues moving in, that's low pressure moving in, that cooler regime moving

08:08in by Sunday.

08:10Then Monday and Tuesday, the yellows arrive.

08:13Now this is the Azores high, so that's that south, the more settled weather arriving from

08:18the south and west.

08:19Then we move back into more unsettled weather, low pressure dominating again, more of a northwesterly

08:25coming in to end the week, Thursday and Friday.

08:28So we'll be oscillating between troughs and ridges, lows and highs through next week.

08:33So potentially some more settled spells.

08:36And as we've seen for this week, it doesn't take much for us to build the heat just for

08:41a couple of days, but it doesn't look like we've got anything particularly prolonged

08:45or summer-like on the way for the next 10 days away from the next few days.

08:51But you can find out all the details on your forecast for the next couple of days and further

08:56ahead by subscribing to our YouTube channel.

08:58See you soon.

08:59Bye bye.

10 Day Trend 17/07/2024 – Heatwave on the way?

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