10 Day Trend 23/10/2024 – Wet weekend, drier next week? - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 23/10/2024.   After some uncertainty in the next few days it looks drier next week, which may be good news if you’re on half-term.   Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.

Transcript

00:00Is it looking drier for next week? For many that's half term. And is it really

00:05turning colder for Halloween? We'll try and answer both of those questions in

00:08this week's Met Office 10-day trend. But actually it's the shorter term that's

00:13been giving us meteorologists nightmares of late because there's more uncertainty

00:18than usual in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Here's the reason why. High

00:23up in the sky the jet stream is dipping to the south way out in the Atlantic.

00:28This is called a trough. Now this is bodily moving towards the UK and it

00:32generates areas of low pressure. But what's really happening is it's kind of

00:36dipping even further south and almost doubling back on itself. And when this

00:40squeezes together like that, and particularly when it doubles back on itself, we call

00:44that a disrupting trough. And it always provides more headaches for us

00:48meteorologists. Why so? Well if we take a rewind and look at what's happening to

00:54the pressure pattern, it's this area of low pressure and these weather fronts

00:58in particular, and how they interact with this disrupting trough that causes

01:03the headaches for Friday and Saturday. And just when this area of low pressure

01:07will develop, how it develops and how quickly it moves. Now this is the Met

01:11Office model projections of the low pressure system for Friday from midnight

01:17last night. But actually this is way faster than most of the other computer

01:22models are suggesting. And of course sometimes it's not that useful just to

01:25look at one model, it's useful to look at many. And we also use something called

01:30ensembles, where we run the same model but many many times. And that's what this

01:34is showing. We call this a Dalmatian plot. Each one of these dots is representative

01:39of where that low pressure could be. And these are previous runs from the

01:44European model. And they're actually showing that over the past couple of

01:48runs in particular, there's been more clustering of the low pressure down to

01:52the southwest of the UK. You can see it more clearly here. These dots clustering

01:56down to the southwest. So the most likely scenario, instead of that low whizzing

02:00across the UK, is that it's sitting more down to the southwest between the

02:05Republic of Ireland and Cornwall probably midday on Friday. So this is the

02:09most likely scenario now, generating a band of rain crossing the country on

02:13Friday that could be quite heavy in places as well. And then that low

02:17drifting its way slowly north and eastwards. Notice the isobars quite close

02:20together. That could generate some quite gusty winds across the southwest in

02:25particular, before that low kind of fizzles out as it crosses the country

02:29during Saturday. What does that mean for our weather? Well, crucially, it means if

02:33you've got plans on Saturday, you should keep up to date with the forecast because

02:36there is more uncertainty than usual. But generally speaking, Friday and

02:40Saturday we'll be seeing bands of showery rain, particularly in western

02:44areas, and the possibility of some gusty winds down to the southwest. Now I'd love

02:49to tell you that the weather gets more straightforward after that, but actually

02:52it doesn't really. For Sunday and Monday in particular, there's still

02:56complications. And again, it's the bigger picture that tells us why. So that dip in

03:01the jet stream, that is clearing away, that trough. And the jet is now coming

03:05more in from the west, but it's being fed by a couple of different arms, if you

03:09like. And this little fella is, in particular, giving us even more headaches

03:14because that has the tropical remnants of Hurricane Oscar mixed into it. No

03:20longer a hurricane, but it does have that tropical air in it. And if we zoom in

03:24and run through the weekend, what happens is a bit of that warmer air gets pushed

03:28further ahead and generates its own little area of low pressure. So this is a

03:33weather system, little area of low, depending on exactly how it interacts

03:37with the jet stream will determine its track. But it's still got some

03:40tropical air mixed in with it, so it's likely to bring a lot of moisture, a lot

03:44of cloud and some outbreaks of rain coming in from the west on that more

03:48active jet stream through Sunday and into Monday. So what does that mean? Well,

03:53again, it looks like western areas will see the wettest weather for Sunday and

03:57Monday. And that's what's being backed up here by the Met Office, European and GFS,

04:02the American computer model. These are the rainfall accumulations over Sunday

04:08and into Monday. And they're all highlighting that western areas, western

04:11Scotland, Wales, northwest England, the west of Northern Ireland, will see the

04:16wettest conditions. The American model has the heaviest rain a little further

04:19south, again, depending on the exact trajectory of that low pressure system.

04:24But they're all also highlighting that eastern areas may well stay largely dry.

04:28So westerly winds bringing cloud and rain in from the west for Sunday and

04:34Monday. Slightly counterintuitively, this is one of those 10-day trends where

04:39actually the longer range into next week. We have more confidence in the forecast

04:44than in the short to medium term because there's quite a strong signal that for

04:49next week, half term for many, this will be the pressure pattern, the dominant

04:54weather situation with high pressure sitting somewhere close to the United

04:59Kingdom. Now, high pressure means the air is sinking. So that would bring a lot of

05:03dry weather. Still quite breezy with the isobars closer together, closer to the

05:07low pressure systems to the far northwest. But in this weather scenario,

05:12which is most likely through the middle of next week, that would bring quite a

05:16lot of dry weather. Not necessarily sunny. It's likely to be quite cloudy and a bit

05:20dank and murky at times as well. But that is backed up by this graph, which is the

05:26multi-model probabilities where we look at all of the computer models and run

05:31the ensembles and get percentages of the different flavours of weather, if you

05:36like. And the dominant one through next week, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday in

05:40particular, is this mid-orange colour, which is indicative of high pressure

05:44sitting close to the UK. So a pretty strong signal that that will be the

05:48dominant weather pattern. But that signal then diminishes as we go through towards

05:53the back end of the week and into the weekend with pretty much a more even

05:57distribution of the different weather flavours. But quite a strong signal there

06:01that through the middle of next week, high pressure will be close by to the UK.

06:06Now, next Thursday is of course Halloween and there has been some chatter that it's

06:11going to turn much colder. This horror show is the European postage stamps.

06:17Again, the ensemble weather forecasts where we run the computer model many,

06:22many times. 50 different postage stamps here. 50 different possible scenarios.

06:28The colours representing basically the warmth of the air with the yellows and

06:32the oranges milder and the greens and the blues colder. And you can just about

06:37make out, particularly if I zoom in, that most of them have the UK covered in the

06:43warmer air, the yellows and the oranges. But there are a couple, number 23 here

06:49and number 11, that have the cooler air, certainly trying to push in across

06:53northern parts of the UK. But that's a couple of examples out of 50. So less

06:58than a 5% chance of that happening. And even if these were to come off, it would

07:02just indicate that it would be turning a bit colder across the north and there

07:06may be some snow on the Scottish hills, which isn't unusual for the end of October.

07:11So no strong signals that Halloween is at all going to be particularly cold.

07:17In fact, for most of next week, temperatures around about average,

07:20generally speaking, with that high pressure close by, that would bring a lot of dry

07:26weather, not necessarily sunny, often quite cloudy. And of course, this time of year

07:29with high pressure, light winds that can bring stubborn mist and fog.

07:34There is an increasing chance, but still only a small chance of things turning a bit

07:38colder towards the back end of next week. If you have day to day weather dependent

07:44plans, then please do keep up to date with the latest forecast.

07:48And if you're watching this on YouTube, don't forget to hit subscribe.

10 Day Trend 23/10/2024 – Wet weekend, drier next week?

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