Skip to player
Skip to main content
Skip to footer
Search
Connect
Watch fullscreen
Like
Comments
Bookmark
Share
Add to Playlist
Report
10 Day Trend 23/10/2024 – Wet weekend, drier next week?
Met Office
Follow
23/10/2024
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 23/10/2024.
After some uncertainty in the next few days it looks drier next week, which may be good news if you’re on half-term.
Bringing you this 10 day weather outlook is Alex Deakin.
Category
🗞
News
Transcript
Display full video transcript
00:00
Is it looking drier for next week? For many that's half term. And is it really
00:05
turning colder for Halloween? We'll try and answer both of those questions in
00:08
this week's Met Office 10-day trend. But actually it's the shorter term that's
00:13
been giving us meteorologists nightmares of late because there's more uncertainty
00:18
than usual in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Here's the reason why. High
00:23
up in the sky the jet stream is dipping to the south way out in the Atlantic.
00:28
This is called a trough. Now this is bodily moving towards the UK and it
00:32
generates areas of low pressure. But what's really happening is it's kind of
00:36
dipping even further south and almost doubling back on itself. And when this
00:40
squeezes together like that, and particularly when it doubles back on itself, we call
00:44
that a disrupting trough. And it always provides more headaches for us
00:48
meteorologists. Why so? Well if we take a rewind and look at what's happening to
00:54
the pressure pattern, it's this area of low pressure and these weather fronts
00:58
in particular, and how they interact with this disrupting trough that causes
01:03
the headaches for Friday and Saturday. And just when this area of low pressure
01:07
will develop, how it develops and how quickly it moves. Now this is the Met
01:11
Office model projections of the low pressure system for Friday from midnight
01:17
last night. But actually this is way faster than most of the other computer
01:22
models are suggesting. And of course sometimes it's not that useful just to
01:25
look at one model, it's useful to look at many. And we also use something called
01:30
ensembles, where we run the same model but many many times. And that's what this
01:34
is showing. We call this a Dalmatian plot. Each one of these dots is representative
01:39
of where that low pressure could be. And these are previous runs from the
01:44
European model. And they're actually showing that over the past couple of
01:48
runs in particular, there's been more clustering of the low pressure down to
01:52
the southwest of the UK. You can see it more clearly here. These dots clustering
01:56
down to the southwest. So the most likely scenario, instead of that low whizzing
02:00
across the UK, is that it's sitting more down to the southwest between the
02:05
Republic of Ireland and Cornwall probably midday on Friday. So this is the
02:09
most likely scenario now, generating a band of rain crossing the country on
02:13
Friday that could be quite heavy in places as well. And then that low
02:17
drifting its way slowly north and eastwards. Notice the isobars quite close
02:20
together. That could generate some quite gusty winds across the southwest in
02:25
particular, before that low kind of fizzles out as it crosses the country
02:29
during Saturday. What does that mean for our weather? Well, crucially, it means if
02:33
you've got plans on Saturday, you should keep up to date with the forecast because
02:36
there is more uncertainty than usual. But generally speaking, Friday and
02:40
Saturday we'll be seeing bands of showery rain, particularly in western
02:44
areas, and the possibility of some gusty winds down to the southwest. Now I'd love
02:49
to tell you that the weather gets more straightforward after that, but actually
02:52
it doesn't really. For Sunday and Monday in particular, there's still
02:56
complications. And again, it's the bigger picture that tells us why. So that dip in
03:01
the jet stream, that is clearing away, that trough. And the jet is now coming
03:05
more in from the west, but it's being fed by a couple of different arms, if you
03:09
like. And this little fella is, in particular, giving us even more headaches
03:14
because that has the tropical remnants of Hurricane Oscar mixed into it. No
03:20
longer a hurricane, but it does have that tropical air in it. And if we zoom in
03:24
and run through the weekend, what happens is a bit of that warmer air gets pushed
03:28
further ahead and generates its own little area of low pressure. So this is a
03:33
weather system, little area of low, depending on exactly how it interacts
03:37
with the jet stream will determine its track. But it's still got some
03:40
tropical air mixed in with it, so it's likely to bring a lot of moisture, a lot
03:44
of cloud and some outbreaks of rain coming in from the west on that more
03:48
active jet stream through Sunday and into Monday. So what does that mean? Well,
03:53
again, it looks like western areas will see the wettest weather for Sunday and
03:57
Monday. And that's what's being backed up here by the Met Office, European and GFS,
04:02
the American computer model. These are the rainfall accumulations over Sunday
04:08
and into Monday. And they're all highlighting that western areas, western
04:11
Scotland, Wales, northwest England, the west of Northern Ireland, will see the
04:16
wettest conditions. The American model has the heaviest rain a little further
04:19
south, again, depending on the exact trajectory of that low pressure system.
04:24
But they're all also highlighting that eastern areas may well stay largely dry.
04:28
So westerly winds bringing cloud and rain in from the west for Sunday and
04:34
Monday. Slightly counterintuitively, this is one of those 10-day trends where
04:39
actually the longer range into next week. We have more confidence in the forecast
04:44
than in the short to medium term because there's quite a strong signal that for
04:49
next week, half term for many, this will be the pressure pattern, the dominant
04:54
weather situation with high pressure sitting somewhere close to the United
04:59
Kingdom. Now, high pressure means the air is sinking. So that would bring a lot of
05:03
dry weather. Still quite breezy with the isobars closer together, closer to the
05:07
low pressure systems to the far northwest. But in this weather scenario,
05:12
which is most likely through the middle of next week, that would bring quite a
05:16
lot of dry weather. Not necessarily sunny. It's likely to be quite cloudy and a bit
05:20
dank and murky at times as well. But that is backed up by this graph, which is the
05:26
multi-model probabilities where we look at all of the computer models and run
05:31
the ensembles and get percentages of the different flavours of weather, if you
05:36
like. And the dominant one through next week, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday in
05:40
particular, is this mid-orange colour, which is indicative of high pressure
05:44
sitting close to the UK. So a pretty strong signal that that will be the
05:48
dominant weather pattern. But that signal then diminishes as we go through towards
05:53
the back end of the week and into the weekend with pretty much a more even
05:57
distribution of the different weather flavours. But quite a strong signal there
06:01
that through the middle of next week, high pressure will be close by to the UK.
06:06
Now, next Thursday is of course Halloween and there has been some chatter that it's
06:11
going to turn much colder. This horror show is the European postage stamps.
06:17
Again, the ensemble weather forecasts where we run the computer model many,
06:22
many times. 50 different postage stamps here. 50 different possible scenarios.
06:28
The colours representing basically the warmth of the air with the yellows and
06:32
the oranges milder and the greens and the blues colder. And you can just about
06:37
make out, particularly if I zoom in, that most of them have the UK covered in the
06:43
warmer air, the yellows and the oranges. But there are a couple, number 23 here
06:49
and number 11, that have the cooler air, certainly trying to push in across
06:53
northern parts of the UK. But that's a couple of examples out of 50. So less
06:58
than a 5% chance of that happening. And even if these were to come off, it would
07:02
just indicate that it would be turning a bit colder across the north and there
07:06
may be some snow on the Scottish hills, which isn't unusual for the end of October.
07:11
So no strong signals that Halloween is at all going to be particularly cold.
07:17
In fact, for most of next week, temperatures around about average,
07:20
generally speaking, with that high pressure close by, that would bring a lot of dry
07:26
weather, not necessarily sunny, often quite cloudy. And of course, this time of year
07:29
with high pressure, light winds that can bring stubborn mist and fog.
07:34
There is an increasing chance, but still only a small chance of things turning a bit
07:38
colder towards the back end of next week. If you have day to day weather dependent
07:44
plans, then please do keep up to date with the latest forecast.
07:48
And if you're watching this on YouTube, don't forget to hit subscribe.
Recommended
1:15
|
Up next
Big Ben Tower - exciting new landmark on Skegness seafront
National World
2 days ago
10:39
10 Day Trend 19/03/2025 – Unsettled weekend, will it last?
Met Office
19/03/2025
8:43
10 Day Trend 09/10/2024 – Colder but for how long?
Met Office
09/10/2024
12:47
10 Day Trend 08/01/2025 – When will it warm up?
Met Office
08/01/2025
11:38
10 Day Trend 12/02/2025 – When’s it going to change?
Met Office
12/02/2025
13:05
10 Day Trend 15/01/2025 – Will an easterly develop?
Met Office
15/01/2025
11:02
10 Day Trend 02/04/2025 – More sun, how warm?
Met Office
02/04/2025
10:19
10 Day Trend 06/11/2024 – High to dominate?
Met Office
06/11/2024
9:19
10 Day Trend 13/12/2023– Much drier in the east – Met Office weather forecast UK
Met Office
13/12/2023
10:59
10 Day Trend 22/01/2025 – Staying unsettled?
Met Office
22/01/2025
9:01
10 Day Trend 17/07/2024 – Heatwave on the way?
Met Office
17/07/2024
12:54
10 Day Trend 17/04/2024 – Less wet but not entirely dry – Met Office weather forecast UK
Met Office
17/04/2024
11:58
10 Day Trend 28/08/2024 – High pressure is coming
Met Office
28/08/2024
13:46
10 Day Trend 30/10/2024 – High pressure in control
Met Office
30/10/2024
8:33
10 Day Trend 03/07/2024 – Feeling a little more summery
Met Office
03/07/2024
10:19
10 Day Trend 29/05/2024 – More settled as high pressure builds – Met Office weather forecast UK
Met Office
29/05/2024
11:06
10 Day Trend 25/09/2024 – More rain, further flooding
Met Office
25/09/2024
8:18
10 Day Trend 14/05/2025 – Some signs of rain?
Met Office
14/05/2025
11:14
10 Day Trend 26/02/2025 – High pressure bringing some sunshine
Met Office
26/02/2025
9:24
10 Day Trend 07/05/2025 – A blip in the high
Met Office
07/05/2025
8:20
10 Day Trend 27/11/2024 – Tricky details
Met Office
27/11/2024
10:10
10 Day Trend 26/03/2025 – Any more warm sunshine ahead?
Met Office
26/03/2025
11:10
10 Day Trend 12/03/2025 – Turning milder but wetter
Met Office
12/03/2025
13:16
10 Day Trend 31/07/2024 – Changeable after the thunder
Met Office
31/07/2024
12:33
10 Day Trend 14/08/2024 – How could Ernesto impact the UK? – Met Office weather forecast UK
Met Office
14/08/2024