10 Day Trend 27/11/2024 – Tricky details - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 27/11/2024.   Whilst there will often be high pressure nearby, the weather is looking quite mobile and changeable.   Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.

Transcript

00:00Hello, very good day to you. Now, I most like doing these 10-day trends when we have quite

00:05a firm idea of what the weather is going to be doing through the next 10 days or so and

00:09that's not really the case this time round. It's fair to say the weather is looking pretty

00:14changeable. Starting off looking at the bigger picture and the feature that's been named

00:18Storm Connell did bring some heavy rain, some strong winds across southern parts of the

00:23U.K. but it is going to deepen further as it heads towards the Netherlands and so that's

00:28why it's the Dutch Met Service that actually gave it a name. Behind it we have high pressure

00:33building in and with high pressure that's going to settle things down. We're going to

00:37have some clear skies as we go through the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday

00:41at this time of year with clear skies and some chillier air coming in. That means we're

00:46going to see our temperatures dropping and so first thing on Thursday morning we do need

00:51to watch out for some frost, some fog and even some freezing fog patches in some places

00:56too. Some fog could linger through much of the day towards eastern parts but here it

01:00should stay largely dry. Quite chilly though, temperatures staying on the low side for the

01:04time of year. Further west we're going to have some cloudier, wetter, windier weather

01:10pushing its way in and temperatures lifting even here only just about scraping into double

01:15digits. Later on we see the heaviest rain pushing its way across parts of Scotland so

01:20a wet end to the day here. Across other western areas a bit damp, a fair bit of cloud around

01:26further east. We will see the cloud building as we go through the evening but it should

01:30stay largely dry. That's because towards the east we are still under the influence of high

01:35pressure as we go into Friday but eventually that high drifts away towards the east and

01:40so the slightly more changeable, cloudy, wet and at times windy weather will start to make

01:45its way across much of the UK as we go through Saturday. It always looks wettest and most

01:51windy towards northern and western parts but yes, some more changeable, unsettled weather

01:56pushing its way through. With that as well we are going to see our temperatures rising.

02:00It's going to be pretty mild for the time of year as we go through this weekend but

02:04like I say, fairly changeable. More changeable weather to come as we go through into Sunday,

02:08likely to see another low pressure centre pushing its way through so some wet and windy

02:12weather at times but that should push through as we go through early next week with a bit

02:16of a ridge of high pressure following in behind and so that's likely to settle things down

02:21for a short period of time but with that we are going to see some cooler air returning

02:26so temperatures dropping down again and again. That means we're likely to see some frost

02:30and fog, some freezing fog as we go through Monday night into Tuesday perhaps. Behind

02:35it more unsettled weather ready to come in, various systems waiting out in the Atlantic

02:40and I think it's this sort of theme that we're going to see more of as we go through

02:44the next 10 days in as much as yes, there will be high pressure not too far away but

02:49it could just be some transient ridges which are relatively short-lived interspersed with

02:55some more unsettled weather coming through at times as various fronts, various low pressure

02:58systems make their way across the country. We could look at that in a different way by

03:03looking at our pressure trend. If you've not seen this before and it shows the most likely

03:07pressure pattern for the next couple of weeks with reds highlighting that high pressure

03:12is generally most likely. High pressure suggests more settled conditions but it's important

03:18to look at the details. Yes, higher pressure through the next few days but if you look

03:21at the numbers as we go through the first week of December and they're fairly low so

03:26it's definitely no guarantee that high pressure really is going to be all that in charge.

03:31Low pressure is likely to also be nearby so what I'm suggesting is there aren't strong

03:37signs for a big blocking high that will last for a good chunk of time like we saw earlier

03:41on in November. Instead, it looks like it would just be some relatively short-lived

03:46periods of high pressure with some wetter windier weather perhaps at times. We can see

03:51that in a different way if we look at the zonal trend. Remember, this is the pattern

03:54as to whether our air is coming from the west or the east and at the moment it's more of

03:59an easterly direction but yes, as we go through the first week of December and the first week

04:03of meteorological winter it does look like a more westerly, more mobile pattern is likely

04:08and that goes in line with everything kind of being quite changeable with nothing lasting

04:13particularly long. I wanted to show you the confidence index because well, if you've not

04:17seen this before, this is how high the forecast confidence is compared to average and as you

04:23would expect, confidence generally drops as you look further into the future. But actually

04:26in this instance, while confidence is quite high for the next couple of days, it really

04:30drops down as we go through the first week of December. In fact, confidence for around

04:35the second or third of December is lower than the confidence in the forecast a whole wheel

04:40later, though this higher than average confidence maybe isn't as high as it suggests. We often

04:47see with high pressure on the cards that this indicates that higher than average confidence

04:53is more likely when it doesn't always come off. Anyway, back to the forecast for next

04:58week and one way of looking at things is by looking at the ECMWF most likely regimes and

05:03this is the most likely regime for next Wednesday and it goes with the idea of higher pressure

05:09somewhere towards the east or the south of the UK and lower pressure towards the north

05:13northwest. But where this boundary between the low pressure and the high pressure actually

05:18is, is where there's quite a bit of uncertainty and that really then will dictate how much

05:24we see the rain and where we see the wet and windy weather pushing through. If we look

05:28at the second most likely and it has the high pressure much further towards the west, also

05:33towards the north a little bit more and more dominant over the UK and so actually on Wednesday

05:37it looks largely dry compared to the much wetter story when we look at the most likely

05:42regime. And if we look at the third most likely regime, well, it's somewhere in between. So,

05:47wetter windier weather towards the northwest, higher pressure towards the southeast and

05:50that's kind of the pattern we can expect really through March and next week. But at times

05:54this unsettled weather will push through. So, most places or pretty much everywhere

05:58will see some rain at times. If we look at this in a different way and if we look at

06:03the ECMWF postage stamps, so these show the various different model runs and all the different

06:09possibilities for what could happen on next Thursday and it's quite difficult to look

06:12at the details in these, but they're showing that the positions of any lows and highs,

06:16well, they're really quite uncertain at this stage. There are some lows and highs around

06:21that we can be pretty certain on, but exactly where and when they're going to come through,

06:25that's where the difficulty lies. If we take one example, if we look at member 10 and actually

06:30this one shows quite a deep area of low pressure coming through next Thursday. This is just

06:35one possible outcome, so we don't need to take it too seriously at this stage. But if

06:39this came off, we could have some stormy weather, albeit worth noting that the majority

06:43of the members want something much less severe than that. If we then dart ahead a day and

06:48look at Friday and this time looking at member 11, a very different story. This has high

06:54pressure building back in from the east and pushing across the UK. And if this came off,

06:59then this could actually last for quite a while and we could have a relatively prolonged

07:03period of more settled weather. But again, this is just one member and most of them paint

07:09a slightly different story with just a changeable pattern with various things moving through

07:13at times. So I think it's fair to say, yes, I think I've said changeable enough times

07:18in this forecast that we can be pretty certain on just how unsettled it's going to be. That's

07:24where the confidence isn't quite there and when we're going to see the wet and windy

07:28weather pushing through. But temperature wise, I'm a little bit more confident as we go through

07:32at least into the beginning of next week. I already talked about a chilly bit for the

07:36next day or so, but then temperatures picking up as we go through this coming weekend.

07:42Here are the meteorograms from ECMWF for our capital cities and they all paint a similar

07:47profile as much as those temperatures then pick up, dropping down again early next week

07:51and then thereafter as we go through the first week or so of December, it's likely that temperatures

07:56will be pretty near climatological average, perhaps a little bit above, but worth noting

08:01there's a fair amount of spread in those temperatures. It's pretty much just climatological

08:06spread. So thanks for watching. I do hope I gave you some information as to what we

08:11can expect through the next 10 days. Obviously, details will firm up as we get nearer the

08:16time, so make sure you don't miss an update. Bye bye.

10 Day Trend 27/11/2024 – Tricky details

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