00:00Hello there and welcome to your 10-day trend. Things are hotting up this weekend, but how long is the heatwave set to last and is there a change on its way?
00:10Well, to start off with, let's take a look at the bigger picture. And yes, high pressure is largely dominating, which means lots of settled conditions, particularly as we head our way into the weekends.
00:20But draw your eyes to the northwest. They've really drawn the straw here. Some frontal systems clipping that northwestern edge of the high. So more clouds, some light outbreaks of rain at times on Thursday and Friday across western areas of Scotland.
00:34But then after that, high pressure largely dominating. But notice it does start to shift its way to the east. Then we see a meandering of the jet stream, a slight strengthening of that jet stream, a trough this is called.
00:45And that does try to edge some more frontal systems into the west. But still over the weekend, that high pressure now situated to the east does keep them back to the west.
00:55Keeps them into the Atlantic, but just need to keep an eye on later Sunday. A chance they might just skirt their way that bit eastwards, just clipping parts of Northern Ireland later into the day.
01:05So a chance we could see more cloud, potentially some outbreaks of rain later.
01:08And then after that, our global model that we use here at the Met Office does actually push some frontal systems eastwards as we head through into Monday.
01:15But many other models actually still, once again, keep those frontal systems further back.
01:20So it's likely still, even as we head into Monday, there's going to be lots of settled conditions.
01:24Before we talk about that, though, let's start with Thursday.
01:27And as I've mentioned, those frontal systems pushing into the northwest.
01:30So there's always going to be more cloud here, some light outbreaks of rain, particularly across the west and northwest of Scotland.
01:37But elsewhere, lots of sunshine, lots of blue skies, but it is going to be feeling hot in that sunshine.
01:43High UV levels, it's important that you drink lots of water, particularly as we head into the afternoon, as things do start to warm up.
01:49It's likely we'll see highs reaching around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, particularly across central areas and parts of the southeast.
01:56But you can really see that colour difference between the north and south.
01:59It's always a little bit fresher here, particularly western Scotland, for example, where we'll see the more cloud and those outbreaks of light rain.
02:05But even here, still eastern Scotland, northern Ireland, still temperatures pushing in to the mid-20s.
02:10So it is still going to be warm.
02:13But exactly how warm is it set to get over the coming days?
02:17Well, let's take a look at the temperature anomalies, because we really see a shift in whereabouts the highest temperatures are going to be day on day.
02:24So on Thursday, the temperatures compared to average, we can really see that intense heat, particularly across southern parts and across the southwest of Wales.
02:32Also, parts of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire is where we're likely to see some intense heat.
02:36But it's really on Friday that we start to begin to see that widespread heat, and this time once again across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland.
02:44But the highest temperatures once again across Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, parts of West Midlands, and also across the southwest.
02:51As we head further into the weekend, once again, we can really see that intense heat becoming widespread across the country.
02:58Once again, central areas, parts of northern England, and still parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland.
03:03So on Saturday, dry, settled, and that sunshine is set to be intense.
03:08And on Sunday, we see a fairly similar picture.
03:11But notice many eastern areas not quite seeing temperatures as above average as compared to later in the week and on Saturday.
03:18And it's where we start to pick up a bit more of an easterly flow as we see that high-pressure shift eastwards, so potentially even seeing some cloud push through here.
03:26So temperatures aren't going to be quite as warm, but nevertheless, it is still going to be very warm indeed in that sunshine.
03:31But how hot exactly is it going to get?
03:34Well, here behind me, I've got a chart, just having a look at the chance of reaching 30 degrees or more.
03:39So Thursday, we can see that area confined across southern parts of the UK.
03:43But heading into Friday, once again, that intense heat becoming more widespread.
03:47So a good few areas across central areas, parts of the southeast, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, likely to start to push up into that 30 degrees Celsius.
03:56Saturday, once again, the chance of 30 degrees becoming more widespread.
03:59And we're really seeing those bright colours across the West Midlands, parts of the southwest.
04:05So that's where we're likely to push up into 30 degrees.
04:08And it's not just going to be across localised area.
04:10It's going to be quite widespread where we start to see temperatures of that sort.
04:14Then we start to see a potential change.
04:17So Sunday and Monday, yes, there is still a chance of seeing 30 degrees, once again, in similar areas.
04:22Not so much across Scotland this time, once again, becoming more and more confined to central areas and parts of the southeast.
04:29But heading into Tuesday, that chance of 30 degrees diminishes quite a lot.
04:35So that's when we'll start to see that change through Monday and Tuesday into next week.
04:40Before we get on to that, though, once again, let's finish off with the good news.
04:43So all the sunshine we're likely to see on Friday.
04:46Still a chance of some low cloud, particularly through into the Irish Sea.
04:50Eastern areas, for example, could see some low cloud to start off with.
04:53Eastern areas of Northern Ireland, northwest England, once again, western Scotland could see some low cloud.
04:58But it should burn back fairly quickly.
05:01And once again, plenty of blue skies to end the week.
05:04Particularly, once again, western Scotland, where they're set to see the cloud and drizzly outbreaks on Thursday.
05:09And yes, it is going to be hot in that sunshine.
05:11Highs reaching 31 to 32 degrees Celsius.
05:14We're going to see an increase in those temperatures day on day, particularly as we head over to the weekend.
05:18But yes, there's still a slight difference across western Scotland.
05:21Always a little fresher here.
05:23Northern Ireland, too.
05:24But it is still going to be warm.
05:25Then on Saturday, fairly similar conditions.
05:28A chance of some low cloud.
05:29This time, for example, across eastern areas.
05:31The far northeast of Scotland could be plagued by some quite low cloud through much of the day.
05:36But across much of England and Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, we are really going to see that high pressure.
05:41Widespread settled conditions.
05:44Lots of blue skies.
05:45But that intense heat once again.
05:47High UV levels do take plenty of water with you if you are out and about into the weekend.
05:51And once again, many areas pushing up into the high 20s, low 30s degrees Celsius.
05:58Sunday, once again, just to finish off the weekend, similar conditions.
06:01Still a chance of that low cloud plaguing eastern areas.
06:04Once again, a good chance of it burning back to the North Sea.
06:07And once again, blue skies and those warm temperatures once again.
06:10Really widespread across the country.
06:12Then how about after that?
06:15Well, as I identified earlier, we've got these frontal systems just starting to push in from the west.
06:21But our global model really does push them across the country, indicating we could see more cloud, rain and showers.
06:26But that's really not the preferred solution into Monday.
06:29But there is quite a lot of model spread as to how quickly those fronts move in from the west.
06:34Taking a look at our spaghetti plots, the various areas where that frontal system could potentially lie.
06:40And as you can see, there's some areas with it further west and some areas with it further east across the country.
06:46So it's still an element of uncertainty as to how quickly those systems are set to push through into the west.
06:52But nevertheless, many areas are still going to see temperatures above average still as we head into the early part of next week.
06:59But it really depends how quickly that system pushes in.
07:03But anything to the east is going to be largely dry, settled and still very warm.
07:07And as we showed earlier, there is still a chance that some areas, some localised areas, could see 30 degrees Celsius.
07:13But it's really from Monday onwards that we'll start to see less of that widespread intense heat.
07:18And taking a look at our probability plot as well, if we head further into towards the middle and end part of June,
07:25we can still see there's this battleground between the high pressure shown by the reds and orange colours
07:30and between the low pressure, so more of the blue colours.
07:33And it's likely we'll see a classic split in the weather where we'll see the unsettled weather pushing in to the northwest,
07:39more cloud, more rain, but still many areas across central areas and parts of the southeast should stay mostly dry and settled.
07:46So next week, we are going to begin to see a bit of a change, but it's a bit of a messy change still with some uncertainty there.
07:54But it's likely to turn cooler, some rain, particularly in the west, and possibly even seeing a thundery breakdown into next week.
08:01But with regards to the exact details of whereabouts that weather could be, there's still a bit of uncertainty there.
08:07But as I say, northwest-southeast split at the moment looks like the most likely solution.
08:13Now, temperatures are increasing this weekend, and as we head into next week, yes, we will start to see those temperatures lower once again
08:20along with the unsettled weather, but it looks like there's a good chance that it'll only be a slight blip before those temperatures start to increase again.
08:26Particularly if I draw your attention to the south, so notice the increase in temperatures as we head towards the weekend,
08:32and as there's a chance of that unsettled weather, the temperature does start to decrease.
08:37But notice as we head further into the period, those box-and-whisker plots, they're called, start to increase once again.
08:43But still, they're still largely big, so that means there is still a spread in the temperatures as we head into next week.
08:50So still, once again, some uncertainty.
08:52But even if things do turn a little cooler and fresher, there is a good chance that things will start to warm up again.
08:57And that's similar across northern areas.
08:59We'll start to see a decline in those temperatures with the unsettled weather, but a chance of those temperatures increasing once again later into July.
09:05Not quite as intense the heat across northern areas.
09:08It's likely that that intense heat will once again become confined to the south.
09:12And why is that?
09:13Well, if we take a look at this weekend, just jumping back a little bit, where we actually see the source of our heat.
09:19It's mainly due to warm advection drifting in from the Atlantic.
09:22And then we see a slight circulation of the heat as well.
09:25So it's really that homegrown heat.
09:27And if you compare that to the heat wave before, where we're starting to get a lot of our heat across parts of Iberia, pushed northwards into the UK,
09:33well, this time, the heat over the weekend, it is a slightly different story.
09:37But as we see a return of the heat later into July, there's a chance we could see once again a repeat of what we saw last time,
09:44where we start to see an extension of the Azores High pushing that heat further north.
09:49But obviously that's still a fair amount of time away, so still lots can change as we head through later into July.
09:55So don't forget to stay subscribed so that you don't miss any of our weather updates.
