- 27/05/2025
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond 27/05/2025 – A look at how changeable the weather will be, including the thunder risk, and if/when the settled conditions will return. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
You may also enjoy:
– 10 Day trend forecast https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZDSHKqsgszMnk9d5IEF5UH
– Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0
– Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello again, it's another Tuesday, another Met Office deep dive. I'm Alex Burke, your presenter and meteorologist here at the Met Office.
00:08Now, I want to crack on with the weather. Sometimes I get some comments saying that I dilly-dally and take too long to get into the weather nitty-gritty.
00:16So I'm going to dive straight in on the deal that you make sure to hit a like on this video and share it with anyone that you think might be interested in it.
00:24So currently, the weather has changed. We said last week that it was going to, and it did over the bank holiday weekend.
00:30We saw the more unsettled weather coming its way in, making its way known across the country.
00:37And, well, that's the story that we have at the moment.
00:39Currently, the jet stream is pushing its way across the UK. It's not an especially strong jet. You wouldn't expect that at this time of year.
00:47But nonetheless, it's running across us and it's driving various features.
00:50We currently have a feature across us and it's bringing a fair amount of rain, particularly across the southern two-thirds of the country.
00:57At the moment, as we go through the rest of Tuesday, a bit more showery further north.
01:01And because of the proximity of low pressure to the north of us, we also have some blustery winds.
01:07But what's going to happen as we go further on? Well, let's run this through.
01:10So this system then clears away towards the east. So through the end of the day, a lot of the rain clears away as well.
01:16But the jet stream doesn't go anywhere particularly far. It's still lingering across the UK.
01:21Still the low to the north of us. There's still some breezy conditions across northern parts in particular.
01:27Wednesday definitely does look quieter for many, but not totally dry.
01:31There'll be quite a few showers around. These will be easing from the west as that bit of ridge of high pressure builds in later on.
01:37But then another system comes through. And if I just pause it here, and if I put our rainfall totals on, or rainfall rates on,
01:46and you can see on Thursday it's looking pretty wet across northern parts in particular.
01:51But how wet are we looking? Well, let's have a look, shall we?
01:54Here are our 24-hour rainfall totals. And if we just start ahead, if we run through Thursday.
02:00Okay, sorry, I've gone too far. And so some of these figures are, so across western parts of Scotland,
02:10we're looking at potentially 30, 40 millimetres of rain perhaps.
02:15Even across some parts of, well, Cumbria, we could be looking at in excess of 20 to 30 millimetres.
02:20But worth always bearing in mind, across many parts of, well, southern, southeastern England,
02:27it's looking largely dry yet again. Yes, there's some wet weather around at the moment.
02:31But I'll come on to that in a second, because it's important.
02:34Lots of places actually avoiding most of the rain.
02:37But if we run through then, if we continue our story.
02:41So we have a weather system coming through as we go through Thursday.
02:45And then if I press play again, that then clears through.
02:49And again, another showery picture as we go through into Friday.
02:53So the theme really for this week and for a little while to come is a weather system comes through,
02:58then something a bit quieter, albeit with a chance of some showers,
03:01and then another weather system comes through.
03:03And that's the theme that we have as we go through the next few days.
03:06So yeah, I'm trying to ridge in as we go through Friday, but it doesn't last particularly long.
03:11Then the jet stream is driving another area of low pressure as we go towards the weekend.
03:16Now, the weekend's a bit of a tricky one.
03:18There's been some changes in the forecast.
03:21I'll tell you for why.
03:22This area of low pressure, I'm just going to pause it here.
03:25That's coming in as we go through this weekend.
03:27The position of this low has changed.
03:30Some models want it a bit further south, more under the core of the jet.
03:34And so then how it develops, how quickly it pushes through.
03:37Now, that has changed in the forecast as we've got nearer the time.
03:41At the moment, it looks like it will track just to the, well, to north of Northern Ireland,
03:46coming across parts of northern Scotland.
03:49And doing so, it's going to bring some unsettled weather.
03:52But it now looks like it's going to come through ever so slightly quicker than it did this time yesterday.
03:57Why is that important? I hear you ask.
03:58Well, let's look at our air mass.
04:00And if we get rid of the jet stream for the time being, I'm just going to run it back a little bit
04:04because there's some warm, humid air over parts of France, also Spain, but also France at the moment.
04:12And this warm and humid air, the plume of it, was likely to push its way up into southern parts as we go through this weekend.
04:19But because now this weather system looks like it's going to come through just that little bit quicker,
04:25that plume's not going to push us far north.
04:27It's not going to have as much time across the country to really set in and do what it can do.
04:33What can we get with these plumes of warm, humid air?
04:36There's a risk of some thunderstorms.
04:38So, let's look at that.
04:41Here is a teffygram.
04:42Remember, if you've not seen a teffygram before, it's kind of a profile up through the atmosphere.
04:47So here's our temperature and our humidity of sorts nearer the surface.
04:51And then it's a profile of what we're seeing as we go higher and higher up through the atmosphere.
04:55Now, what this chart is showing, I could go into teffygrams for hours.
05:01We have done it in previous deep dives.
05:02But the main thing that I want you to take away from this is that only a little bit of heating at the surface,
05:10we're talking rising the temperatures to around 22, 23 Celsius, could cause some severe convection.
05:17Now, this is a teffygram for 12 o'clock on this coming Saturday.
05:23And it's for around the Oxford area, but it's from the model run from 12Z on Monday.
05:29And this red area is our cape.
05:32And you can see it's quite a big cape.
05:34And what that means is just a little bit of warming near the surface.
05:37We're talking low to mid-20s.
05:39Not out of the question by any means for this weekend.
05:43Just a little bit of warming means this then parcel of air could rise quite rapidly up through the air.
05:51And that's when we get our severe convection.
05:54And so this chart suggests or suggested that we could have some intense thundery downpours.
06:00We're talking heavy rain, frequent lightning, even some large hail and other things mixed in as well.
06:05So if this was coming off, then we'd be talking about the risk of some issues, some hazards, as a result of some heavy thundery showers.
06:14But that's now not the most likely scenario.
06:18This is the same chart, same place, same time that it's valid for, but this time taken from the 0Z model run from this morning.
06:26And you can see this shaded pink area, the cape, the convective available potential energy, it's much smaller.
06:33We have a much lower cape value.
06:35And so whilst you can get some rise to the parcel of air, it does look like it's going to lift up.
06:43The area, it's just not as big, so there's not as much energy there.
06:47So when you look at this, yes, there's the potential for some showers to develop as we go through Saturday towards the southeast.
06:54But they don't look like they'll be as intense as the showers that we could have seen had the system that's coming into the northwest on Saturday been delayed a little bit like it looked like it would have been in the model runs from Monday.
07:09So if we just look at things in a little bit more detail and quickly, let's just start through Thursday.
07:15Actually, let's do Wednesday, first of all, just to cover it.
07:17So scattered showers for many places become a bit more widespread as we go through the day than easing from the west later on.
07:23But darting ahead to Thursday, and we have a fairly wet picture across northern parts of the UK, a fair bit drier towards the south-southeast.
07:31On Friday, a few bursts of showery rain here and there.
07:35And then, yeah, let's go through Saturday.
07:37And so you can see a rash of showers across some southeastern parts and some heavier ones.
07:42We can't rule out some thunder.
07:44But it doesn't look like it would be.
07:47It's going to be as impactful as the setup looked like it would be this time yesterday.
07:51Worth bearing in mind that across the near continent, there are some heavy thundery downpours likely to develop here.
07:57But I'm not really expecting them or that plume of air to be as dominant across parts of the southeast.
08:03And so there was the risk of these showers developing.
08:07But I don't think they're going to be as severe as they could have been.
08:10All the time, it now looks like we're going to see some more wet and windy weather pushing into parts of the northwest in particular.
08:17So across Northern Ireland, Scotland, some high rainfall totals pushing through, 25, 30 millimetres perhaps.
08:23But towards the southeast, it looks largely dry.
08:26But how dry?
08:26Well, let's look at our rainfall totals for the whole week.
08:31And so these are our rolling rainfall accumulations.
08:35And if I just run through the next few days, you can see with Thursday, some high rainfall totals building up across parts of western Scotland.
08:42And then if we continue adding more rain in as we go through this coming weekend, then it's, yeah, even higher rainfall totals.
08:52That being said, it's not especially high.
08:54You know, for a whole unsettled, changeable week to be looking at totals staying below 100 millimetres across western parts of Scotland.
09:02I mean, it's wet for sure, but it's not as exceptionally wet as other weeks during the winter, the autumn, for example.
09:10And it doesn't even necessarily counter just how exceptionally dry it's been through much of this spring.
09:19And also, like I highlighted earlier, across parts of the southeast, not seeing much rain.
09:25This is in the 0.1 to 10 millimetre bracket.
09:28That's not a lot of rain to come in four or five days or so.
09:32And so really there, the largely dry weather, which, yes, I know today it's raining for many places, the largely dry theme somewhat continues.
09:42Whilst we're on the topic of rain, I did just want to show you this chart, because if you caught my deep dive last week,
09:49you'll have heard me or you'll have seen me show a chart like this, but this is showing our radar coverage across the country currently.
09:57And you'll notice the difference.
09:59Last week, Caster Bay over Northern Ireland, that radar was out of action.
10:03But fortunately, our engineers here worked incredibly quickly.
10:07I think it was either by the end of Tuesday or definitely by Wednesday, Thursday time.
10:11It was up and running again.
10:13And so now we have a more wide range network when it comes to or more coverage when it comes to radar information.
10:21Now, in an ideal world, we'd have even more radars covering every inch of the UK in more detail.
10:27But that's just not possible for a number of reasons.
10:29Geography, for example.
10:30So big decisions are made when it comes to the position of these radars.
10:35But, yeah, progress is being made.
10:38And, yeah, ideally we would have more.
10:40But unfortunately, this is the amount that we have for the time being.
10:44So I think I've rattled through the weather that we can expect this week.
10:48Changeable at times.
10:48Yes, there will be some drier weather.
10:50Obviously, it's half term for some people.
10:53So not a total washout, but it's definitely more changeable than it's been recently.
10:58And that was the forecast that we were going for.
11:00But let's have a little look at what's to come as we look further ahead.
11:05And the first thing that I wanted to highlight is our forecast confidence index.
11:11And the dashed line just above the red shaded area is our average forecast confidence index for this stage in the forecast.
11:20So as you can see, as we get further ahead in time, looking further ahead, as you would expect, the forecast confidence decreases.
11:28The solid black line below the red shaded area and above the green shaded area shows where our current forecast is compared to that average.
11:38And with the reds, as you might expect, indicating that actually at the moment, forecast confidence is slightly below average for this stage.
11:46As we go further ahead and the forecast generally plateaus, it's around average.
11:51That's negligible.
11:52But, yeah, forecast confidence is slightly below average at the moment.
11:55So some uncertainty, some little tricky details that we still need to firm up on.
12:01But the general trend as we go through into meteorological summer is for the weather to settle down again.
12:10But it's going to take a little while to do that.
12:12If we look at our probabilistic pressure trend for the next, well, over a month, really.
12:20And remember, blues indicate low pressure, so more changeable weather.
12:24Reds indicate high pressure, more settled.
12:26And greens indicating a sort of neutral, unbiased setup.
12:31Previous model runs at the bottom, and you can see last Thursday, Friday, model runs, even up until the weekend, really.
12:41Hinting that as we go through this coming weekend, we should see high pressure being more dominant and a more settled theme for many.
12:51Albeit, with this high pressure, it would have allowed for that plume of warmer, thundery air to come up from the near continent.
12:59And that story's changed a little bit.
13:01It now looks a bit more neutral, a bit uncertain, because there's high pressure and not too far away.
13:05There are ridges coming through that I showed you.
13:08But then there's also various low pressure systems.
13:10That's why it's a bit tricky around this area.
13:13And that's why there's that reduced confidence in the forecast.
13:16Then, an increased chance of us returning back to more changeable weather as we go through, well, this time next week, and much of next week, really.
13:26But then relatively strong signs that as we go through towards the following weekend, 7th, 8th of June, that kind of time, we're likely to see a return to the more settled weather.
13:37But if you caught my weather studio live last week with the other Alex, you'll have seen I showed that chart.
13:44And I also showed this zonal trend chart.
13:47And I think I showed it in my 14-day outlook that went out on our app on Friday as well, because it's in full agreement that we are seeing going to continue with this westerly mobile zonal pattern.
13:59So, our zonal trend is showing whether our air is coming from the west or the east, and the blues indicate with quite high confidence that we're going to continue with the westerly flow as we go through into June, through March of June, and into the beginning of July.
14:13So, what that means is we have our weather set up, and I'm hinting that, yeah, we could have high pressure nearby the UK, but it's going to be quite mobile, quite changeable.
14:23And so, although there will be high pressure often in control, it's not going to be the same big blocking high that we had through much of spring.
14:32There's going to be some, you know, relatively changeable weather coming through, mostly towards the northwest of the UK, most likely to be drier towards the southeast.
14:42So, what do I want to show? Oh, I know. Let's ping this up, and what do I want to show?
14:56Oh, I think I've gone to the wrong place. Bear with me. Here we go.
15:00So, let's start through. Let's go a week ahead, and these are showing our most likely regime.
15:06So, for next week, the left-hand side, we have our most likely set up, and then our second and our third most likely scenarios.
15:13So, in the most likely, this is for this time, well, next Wednesday, the 4th of June, and it's showing low pressure over somewhere towards the north of the UK,
15:22which goes in line with that more unsettled, changeable spell that I highlighted on that probabilistic pressure trend in around a week's time.
15:30So, yeah, an unsettled theme through much of next week.
15:33But if we keep running it through, and as we go towards, well, where are we now? Sunday?
15:38Yeah, Sunday, the 8th of July. So, 7th, 8th of July. That's when there are signs of a bit of a change.
15:44And this suggests that we could start to see high pressure coming in, maybe an Azores High building from the south-southwest.
15:50And with that, then, I mean, the second most likely scenario also has high pressure somewhere towards the south.
15:56The third most likely scenario less clear, but nonetheless, an increasing chance of high pressure coming its way in.
16:02And that looks likely to stick around if I'm just running through these days, and they're generally under the influence.
16:08We've gone a hole now a week further ahead, and still high pressure, the main talking point.
16:14I mean, I know when you look at these percentages, they don't look particularly high, but if you add them all up, all of the percentage chances of those high pressure being the most dominant story, then it tells a more likely, or gives a more likely setup.
16:28And so, yeah, the detail exactly where the high pressure is going to be, that's not there.
16:32I think it's most likely towards the south.
16:35And with that, and that mobile pattern that I talked about, even if we have high pressure somewhere towards the south of the UK, with a mobile pattern, we would still get some wetter weather toppling in at times.
16:45And like I say, towards the northwest, so one to watch.
16:48But tentative signs that, at least as we go into the beginning of summer, that we could have some more dry weather, not as prolonged dry spell as we had during much of spring, but nonetheless, some decent summery weather.
17:03Whether or not that's good news for you or not, depending on how much you're in need of some rain, let me know in the comments.
17:10Right, I've talked an awful lot about the weather coming up, which I may be treading on Alex's toes, who's doing the 10-day trend tomorrow, but I'm sure he'll find more to talk about, so worth checking that out.
17:22Then, a couple of other things that I wanted to mention before I head off.
17:25And you may have heard last week talk about a marine heat wave with temperatures, our sea surface temperatures around the UK, around 3 to 4 degrees higher than average for the time of year at the moment.
17:36There were almost around 12, 13 degrees, which is well above the threshold for it to be classed as a marine heat wave.
17:45And we're seeing these marine heat waves becoming more and more common with our changing climate.
17:50Exactly what the impacts of these marine heat waves are, still to be determined as such, but pretty likely that they're going to have an impact and likely be a negative impact on various marine wildlife.
18:02So, it's not necessarily good news. In fact, it's not really good news, but, you know, if you're hoping for, if you're planning to go for a swim in the sea, then it might be welcome news for some people.
18:13But the thing that I wanted to highlight is with this change to more mobile westerly setup that we've seen over the bank holiday weekend and will continue to have at the moment, we are going to be dragging in some cooler seas or cooler water from the west.
18:29And so that's going to be coming towards us.
18:31So, although this is our current anomaly map from, well, yesterday, and you can see temperatures well above average across much of the seas around the UK, we do have cooler water coming our way.
18:43And so we're going to see that anomaly dropping a little bit as we go through this, well, this week and into next week as well.
18:50What happens thereafter with likely to be more fine weather as we go through June and through the rest of the summer?
18:56Well, temperatures are probably going to rise again, but for the time being, I think we're going to see a slight drop in our temperatures, and so they're going to be closer to average.
19:06Speaking of averages and records for this season, you'll no doubt be aware that it's been exceptionally sunny.
19:13It's been exceptionally dry.
19:14We've had some very warm weather, but I wanted to look at sunshine stats quite quickly.
19:19This map is showing our spring 2025 figures compared to the average for the whole of spring.
19:27Now, this is up until data from Monday, so the 26th of May, so it's only around 95% of the way through the season.
19:37So not quite fully.
19:37We're pretty much there.
19:39But this is comparing spring so far with the average for the whole season.
19:43And pretty much everywhere, well above average sunshine amounts.
19:49Scotland, Northern Ireland have already had their sunniest springs on record.
19:54UK, Wales and England, not far off.
19:58Definitely one to watch out for as we go through the rest of the season.
20:02But it has been exceptionally sunnier than average, and you can see that with this map here.
20:07Some places are seeing, well, well over the 135% of the seasonal average.
20:14Then one last thing that I wanted to show you before I dart ahead is the forecast for this coming weekend in Rochester, or this Friday,
20:25because my wonderful friend Chris Bukock and his fiancée Claire are getting married,
20:31and I will be heading there this Friday to be best man.
20:34And the welcome news, I think, from their point of view, is whilst I can't guarantee it,
20:41because there will be some clouds, some showery rain, and the position of this, it could edge a little bit further southwards,
20:47I think across a large part of Kent, it's actually looking pretty decent.
20:52A lot of fine, rather sunny weather, pretty bright.
20:56Probably not wall-to-wall sunshine, but from a photo point of view, that's probably good news.
21:00And it'll be quite warm, low 20s, that kind of thing, so not too hot.
21:04Obviously, I will be wearing a suit.
21:06But at the moment, tentatively, I'm optimistic that the weather's looking largely fine.
21:11Yes, it could be cloudy, but it's going to start off with, but it should brighten up with a decent amount of sunshine.
21:17Can't guarantee it will stay totally dry, but at the moment, things are looking pretty promising.
21:22So, that's something that I'll be looking forward to at the end of the week.
21:26If you have anything planned this week, or this weekend in particular, do let us know,
21:31because we will be doing another Weather Studio Live on Friday.
21:34This week, it's with Alex Deacon and Honour, so they'll be taking your questions, and I think Honour will be...
21:40No, Alex will be hosting another quiz for Honour to answer this time,
21:45so make sure you check that out, 12.15, on our YouTube channel every Friday.
21:49Like I said, Alex Deacon will be here on Wednesday with the latest 10-day trend.
21:54We'll be updating you, of course, with all of our other content through the week.
21:58Make sure to hit the like button if you've enjoyed this video, maybe even if you haven't,
22:02and share it with anyone who you think might be interested.
22:06Leave some comments, I'll try to answer some of those,
22:08and any questions that I don't answer, we can answer in the Weather Studio Live on Friday.
22:12Otherwise, thank you so much for watching, and I'll see you again soon.
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