This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 30/04/2025.
After a very warm week the weather will change for the bank holiday weekend.
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
After a very warm week the weather will change for the bank holiday weekend.
Bringing you this 10 day weather forecast is Alex Deakin.
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00:00Thanks very much for joining me for this 10-day trend that takes us through the first part of May
00:05and the first bank holiday weekend of the month.
00:09The pressure will generally remain high through the next week or so, but the temperatures, not so much.
00:15We are going to see quite a change as we go through the weekend.
00:18High pressure is definitely in control at the moment, but sitting to the east of us,
00:22allowing the temperatures to build day on day.
00:25But we'll see a shift in the position of the high over the next few days
00:29and the one out west will become more dominant.
00:32This is the bigger picture.
00:33Put the jet stream on, that fast-moving ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere.
00:37It's fairly messy and nondescript across northern parts of the Atlantic,
00:42but there is this cut-off low further south.
00:45We've got low pressure high where the jet stream is,
00:48but also low pressure at the surface, generating more showers for Iberia.
00:52What we'll see is an arm of this pushing up from the south,
00:55pushing up some even warmer air for Thursday.
00:58And at the same time, a branch of the jet stream further north will try and push cooler air down from here.
01:05So we get a bit of a pincer movement as we head towards the end of this week,
01:09and we will say goodbye to the exceptionally warm conditions that we have at the moment.
01:15One reason for that, the main reason, actually,
01:17this cold front is introducing the cooler conditions.
01:19That will spread south through Wednesday night and Thursday across the north.
01:23Still very warm across the south as that next plume moves in.
01:27Thursday, probably the peak in the temperatures, but it's not really until the weekend that the warmth disappears from the south.
01:34Bit of a question mark about how much rain this weather front generates on Saturday across the south.
01:40We'll look at that in more detail in a moment.
01:42But first of all, let's deal with the temperatures over the next couple of days.
01:45It's probably peaking on Thursday in the south, 29, a chance we could even get to 30 Celsius.
01:51But on Thursday, already the cooler air in place across Scotland and Northern Ireland.
01:55So quite a change in here.
01:58By the time we get to Friday, well, still some warmth hanging on in the south,
02:02but it depends how much sunshine we see.
02:04We could still get into the mid-20s, perhaps even 27 in one or two spots.
02:09But generally turning cooler over the Midlands, North Wales, by the time we get to Friday.
02:15This is another way of showing it.
02:16These are the temperature comparisons to 24 hours earlier.
02:19So you can see on Thursday, it's much cooler across Scotland and Northern Ireland compared to Wednesday.
02:24And if we fast forward to Friday, you can see that cooler air spreading further south.
02:29So a good chunk of England and Wales significantly cooler on Friday compared to Thursday.
02:35So it is cooling off as we go towards the weekends.
02:38The big question mark for the weekend is this low pressure and how far north this weather front
02:43and the showery rain from it gets.
02:47Likely to see some heavy berths on it, but the question mark is, will it stay to the south?
02:51Will it affect southern England?
02:52Will it affect parts of South Wales?
02:54Let's say there is a bit of uncertainty about that.
02:57We are talking four days away, so nothing too unusual about that.
03:01These are the ensemble model runs when we run the computer model many times.
03:06And this is showing the rainfall across the United Kingdom.
03:11You can't really see too much detail here, but I just want to highlight the uncertainty
03:15by zooming in and picking out a couple of members, a couple of runs, a couple of the ensemble.
03:20Number 30 here actually showing that rain pretty heavy across the south
03:23and extending into maybe even parts of North Wales and the Midlands.
03:28But that's a bit of an outline.
03:29Most of them are somewhere in between number 30 and 31.
03:3431 keeps that rain down to the south of the UK, and that would be a dry day across southern parts of England.
03:41At the moment, we think it'll be somewhere in between.
03:43So expect some showery rain across southern England in particular.
03:46All the while, we'll see showers coming in across northern Scotland, but in between largely dry.
03:51So if you've got plans, particularly in southern England for Saturday, then do keep up to date with the forecast.
03:56We'll firm up on the details as we go through the next few days.
04:01But definitely worth, I say, keeping up to date with the forecast as we head towards the bank holiday weekend.
04:06Now, that's the main uncertainty, just how far north this rainbound and this weather front gets.
04:11Because after that, well, we're pretty confident that the high pressure will build in again from the west.
04:18So we've switched the position of the high, the high in east disappearing, the one in the west becoming the dominant feature.
04:24And that is crucial because it generates a change in the wind direction, whereas winds have mostly been coming in for the east or the south over the past few days, allowing temperatures to rise.
04:34With the high pressure building in here, if we again run through the course of the weekend, notice the cooler air feeding down on this northeasterly breeze,
04:42bringing quite a chill, I suspect, to those north sea coasts and putting temperatures back much closer to average as we go through the weekend.
04:51So that's one thing we'll definitely notice, that drop in the temperatures.
04:55What does the weather look like for Sunday and Monday?
04:57Well, with the winds coming in from the north down these eastern side, that's where we'll see most of the cloud and maybe a few showers.
05:05But with high pressure, the air is generally sinking, so certainly closer to the high in the west, better chance of some good spots of sunshine staying largely dry here as well.
05:14And those temperatures back closer to average, increasing chance of a few more showers perhaps on Monday across parts of the east as well.
05:21Again, western areas probably favoured for sunshine, but those temperatures much closer to average and probably a touch below across the east and feeling lower with those winds coming in from the north sea.
05:31One more comparison to show you, this is the temperature difference for Sunday when compared to Thursday.
05:38Now, by Thursday, we'll have the cooler air in place across Scotland and Northern Ireland, so it's not as dramatic here.
05:43But, of course, England and Wales, many places will be at least nine degrees cooler by Sunday and Monday when compared to Thursday.
05:52So, yes, it will be quite a change, quite a noticeable change as we go through the long weekend.
05:57So, turning much cooler, but temperatures, you know, still close to average and feeling warm where we have some sunny spells in the west.
06:03And it will be staying largely dry.
06:04The weather shouldn't impact your plans too much.
06:07The caveat around that, as we've discussed, just how far north that showery rain gets on Saturday.
06:13Generally, it'll be dry, still bright, some sunny spells, but cloudiest and coolest on some of those north sea coasts, particularly so on Sunday and Monday.
06:22OK, that's the first bank holiday weekend of the month.
06:27But what about the following working week?
06:30Well, high pressure generally likely to stay in charge.
06:35This is the multi-model probability trend where red is high pressure, blue is low pressure.
06:42Really wanted to show this, the dates going forward there along the top and the previous computer model runs going down the side here.
06:49I want to show you this because we've actually seen quite a significant shift.
06:52It wasn't that long ago, a few days ago, where the most likely pressure pattern was the blues, the low pressure for the middle of next week.
07:00Well, we've seen a gradual trend, a gradual shift in that actually now we're not looking at lower pressure next week.
07:07More settled weather, higher pressure is the more likely.
07:11Still not rock solid.
07:13The colours do go quite a pale pinkish colour around the middle of next week.
07:16But generally speaking, we've seen a shift and that's quite unusual.
07:19You often go from a high pressure signal to a low pressure signal.
07:22It's quite unusual to go from a low pressure signal to a high pressure signal.
07:26But that is a trend.
07:27So we're now much more confident that high pressure will hang on for most of next week, bringing again a lot of dry weather.
07:34Now, if we look at the individual days and the pressure patterns, a lot of them signalling that high pressure will be sitting out to the west through Tuesday, Wednesday.
07:44One slight change on Thursday, notice that the paler colours on that previous chart, that's because some of the models, but the most likely chart from EC4 next Thursday, is that low pressure is closer.
07:57We've still got high pressure nearby and out to the west, but the low pressure is dominant and that would bring more of a northerly flow.
08:02And that would bring quite a cool day on Thursday with quite a few showers.
08:06But the second and third most likely pressure patterns are still with that high pressure out west and the more dominant feature.
08:12So just a question of where the high and the low sits more than anything.
08:17But generally speaking, those pressure patterns are pretty similar.
08:19And even into Friday, the most likely pressure pattern has high pressure down to the south west.
08:25So we're pretty happy that high pressure will continue to dominate, that will continue to bring a lot of dry weather.
08:32But the most likely at times position where we'll see some wetter weather will be across the north, closer to potential lows drifting in.
08:39Now, this is the European model for the ensemble.
08:44The average pressure pattern showing that high pressure sitting out to the west of the UK.
08:48But this is also showing the probability, the chance of us reaching over 15 degrees Celsius.
08:55And I want to show you this because it shows quite a dramatic shift.
08:58Come back to today, time of recording.
09:00The whole of the UK is blue.
09:02Very high chance we're going to get over 15 degrees because we're currently in the warm spell of weather.
09:07But you can see there, Scotland and Northern Ireland really dropping off by Thursday as the cooler air moves in here.
09:13And that's a chance of getting over 15 degrees, dips and dips, particularly as we get into next week.
09:19Let's zoom in on Monday, the bank holiday.
09:22And by the time we get to Monday, the chance of getting just over 15 degrees Celsius.
09:26Well, it's in the 1 to 10 percent bracket across England and Wales.
09:30So that is quite a shock, quite a change to those temperatures.
09:34But then as we go through Tuesday and Wednesday, the chance of getting over 15 degrees starts to increase across the south.
09:42So suggestion there that temperatures will probably be on the rise.
09:45And actually, the nadir of the temperatures like to be Sunday or Monday.
09:49So it is getting cooler this weekend, but temperatures likely to tick up as we go through next week.
09:54And that's just because the high pressure sits around and you get day on day heating at this time of year.
09:59So, yeah, as we go through next week, largely dry and fine.
10:03Could see some showery rain at times across the north, particularly if that low does get closer for Thursday.
10:08Generally speaking, after we see that dip in temperatures through the course of the weekend,
10:14we'll see temperatures starting to rise a little bit, but not as warm as it is currently.
10:19And a lot of dry and fine weather for much of next week.
10:22As always, for the day-to-day detail, do keep up to date with everything we publish across social media.
10:29And the best way to stay up to date, of course, is to subscribe to our YouTube channel.